I created a monster

image credit: conradbrunstrom.wordpress.com

In 2014, I created a monster.

I wrote a work of viral fake-news, completely unintentionally.

I'm not going to retell the story; you can follow the link above for that. But since then, my "Bibi speech" has been resurrected and gone viral again twice - in 2019 and now, in 2021. And, moreover, it's been translated into Spanish and Russian (though I haven't seen it in Hebrew yet). I even got a mention on Snopes!

I feel a kind of guilty pride about this. I mean, I wasn't specifically intending for my openly fictional prose to get copypasta'd and circulated as if it were real. But the fact is, it clearly touched and resonated with a huge number of people, who were inspired to forward it to an average of eight hundred of their closest friends (I may be approximating here, but then, it's well documented that 84% of all statistics are invented on the spot). It seems that every time Israel goes into yet another round of fighting with Hamas, my monster, seemingly of its own volition, creaks open the top of its coffin, lurches out into cyberspace, and storms around the world, now in multiple languages.

I don't have much more to say about this story, because I'm still processing the meaning of it all, and with the current situation and my personal responsibilities, I don't really have time to wax lyrical.

I will, however, take advantage of the attention I'm receiving to post a brief commercial message: 

If you enjoyed my writing, there's more of it. I've written a pretty darn good novel, plus a few short stories. Go and get some of the free stuff here.

I also write speeches for the Prime Minister of Israel. Hey, it's his problem if he doesn't want to use them...

Elections Take 2: Game Theory analysis

It's election time, take 2. For those who have joined us late, here's a TL;DR of the situation:

Aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!

Ok, here's a little more detail:

Israel had elections on 9 April 2019. Even though the "right wing" bloc had comfortably enough seats to form a government, Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu) decided that he would not sit in any government with the Haredi parties. His 5 seats were required for a majority, so Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu could not form a coalition without involving parties to his left, and none of those parties were interested. So rather than allowing Benny Gantz of Kachol Lavan (Blue & White) to have a chance at forming a coalition, Netanyahu had the 21st Knesset dissolve itself, and new elections were called for 17 September.

Netanyahu was hoping that the outcome of the next election will make it easier for him to form a coalition. So, how's that working out so far? As it turns out, very well for Liberman, not so well for Netanyahu. As always, Israel is obsessed with polls, of which several get published every week. For the purposes of this discussion, I'll work with the poll showing the most optimistic numbers from Netanyahu's perspective, which I lifted off the Yisrael Hayom website:

Credit: Yisrael Hayom

This Channel 12 poll from 3 August shows Netanyahu with a total of 57 seats, if you exclude Yisrael Beitenu. And as I said, that's the most optimistic one for him. If the polls are accurate, Netanyahu still has no path to a right-wing coalition, unless Liberman suddenly decides that he's willing to climb down from his anti-Haredi tree. And why should he, seeing as his hardline stand seems to have literally doubled his support? No, Liberman has found what he thinks is a winning formula, and he will stick with it.

What about Gantz? Could he form a centre/left coalition? Here the answer is an even clearer No. His problem is the hate map among his prospective partners. It's like this: The Democratic Camp (heir to Meretz) won't sit with the Haredim. Nor will Liberman. And if there's anyone Liberman hates more than the Haredim, it's the Arabs. And even if he could be persuaded to sit with the Arabs, the United Arab List is too stuck in their anti-Zionist rejectionism, and under their current leadership, will not join any Israeli government. Gantz's optimal non-conflicting coalition is B&W, Labour, Shas, and UTJ, for a grand total of 50 seats. It's not happening for him.

So, back to Netanyahu - how else could he form a coalition? Well, logically speaking, if he can't do it with parties to his right, then he'll have to turn to his left. He has two realistic options here: B&W and Labour. Each has its advantages and disadvantages.

B&W is closer to Likud politically than Labour. A Likud/B&W coalition could potentially form a government without involving any smaller parties. If they need to bring in anyone else, Ayelet Shaked would be the obvious choice. Not Liberman, because I suspect Netanyahu would want to punish him for getting us all into the mess in the first place. Plus, he's shown himself to be an unreliable coalition partner in the past.

The biggest problem with B&W is that they will come with a big asking price, most likely a rotation deal for Prime Minister. And Netanyahu most certainly does not want to give up his job. That will be a deal breaker, in my opinion.

Labour, on the other hand, has embarrassingly little bargaining power, and cannot come with huge demands. If they ask too much, they will get nothing. I can easily see a situation where Netanyahu offers Amir Peretz some obscure post like the Welfare Ministry, and maybe something else peripheral like Agriculture for one of his cronies, in order to sit in the government. Peretz has two choices: a nice ministerial salary to see him comfortably into his retirement, or the glorious distinction of being the leader of the smallest faction in the Opposition. Whichever path he chooses, Labour will kick him out as leader before the next election (as appears to be their custom), so he really has nothing to lose. He'll come up with some rationalization about why he's joining a right-wing/Haredi government, and jump on the gravy train, as befits a good socialist. And that is Netanyahu's path to 61.

Now, you might think we're done here. But this is just where the fun begins. It's time to play Rational Pirates! BUWAHAHAHAHAAA!

Arrr! Shiver me timbers!

Of course, I'm referring to the famous Pirate Game, and if you don't know what that is, you should visit the link. I'm casting Netanyahu and Gantz as the Rational Pirates in our story.

Netanyahu knows he has a path to 61, as described above. But it has its problems. He needs five parties, including his own Likud, in his coalition, they all have their agendas pulling in different directions, and any one of the other four could bring down the government at the drop of a hat. Make that five other parties, since Yamina is just a technical bloc, and once they're in the Knesset they can function independently as the New Right and Bayit Yehudi. Running a government that is constantly beholden to the demands of five other coalition partners will not be easy. Wouldn't it be nice if he could just have one big partner--Blue & White--and not have to bother with those pesky little nudnik parties? If necessary, he could just pull in one other small party, maybe New Right, maybe Bayit Yehudi, to make his 61.

But Gantz wants a rotating Prime Minister position! "Well," Netanyahu can tell him, "I don't need you to form a government. I already have my path to 61, with Labour. But I'd prefer to work with you. We're not that far apart on most issues of substance, and together we can make a coalition that is not beholden to the whims of smaller parties, for the greater good of Israel! Rotating premiership is off the table, but you can have the Defense Ministry and even the Foreign Ministry. Of course, if you'd prefer to be the Leader of the Opposition instead for the next four or five years, that's fine...but chaval al hazman..."

Now Gantz has a quandary. He's made a lot of pronouncements about refusing to join a coalition with Netanyahu. But this really is a great opportunity to form the government that Middle Israel desperately wants. Free from the political demands of the Left and Right fringes; unencumbered by the budgetary needs of the Haredim. How will history remember him? As yet another Opposition leader who never made any impact? Or as the hero who put aside his personal differences with his political opponents, for the greater good?

Gantz nods sagely, then extends his hand to Netanyahu. "You've got a deal," he says. And this is how a coalition is formed between Blue & White, and maybe one other small party.

Alternative scenario: Zehut and Otzma Yehudit pass the threshold

All the above assumes that the smaller ring-wing parties, Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, fail to pass the 3.25% voting threshold. But what if they do? They immediately arrive on the scene with 4 seats each. Those 8 seats will come more or less proportionately off the rest of the parties. Let's say everyone else on that poll loses 1 seat, other than the Arab List (just for argument's sake). Now Netanyahu technically has a path to 61 with just right-wing parties: 29 Likud, 11 Yemina, 6 Shas, 7 UTJ, 4 Zehut, 4 Otzma. But it doesn't really change much from our previous scenario, where Labour filled in the gap; in fact, the optics of forming a coalition with the Kahanists are so bad that Netanyahu would arguably prefer to have Labour in the coalition rather than Otzma. Plus, he hates Moshe Feiglin of Zehut. So it's back to the Rational Pirates game, with pretty much the same inputs as before.

So it seems all roads lead to the same outcome: a Likud/Blue & White coalition, with Netanyahu as Prime Minister.

Of course, anything could happen in the next month, and the seat distribution could be wildly different from current polling. We'll take a look at that after 17 September. See you then!

Credit: Jpost

Machiavellian vs Zen voting

You would think it would be a simple thing deciding who to vote for: just find the party whose principles resonate most with you, or whose past performance has impressed you the most, and vote for them.  Easy, isn't it?

Well, no.  Both Likud and Machaneh Tzioni are arguing that you should vote for them, rather than their smaller natural allies, to ensure that they are the largest party in the knesset, and will therefore be given the opportunity to form the coalition.

Fortunately that canard is easy to debunk, as I have done before, but despite the incontrovertible evidence provided by real life experience as recent as Kadima's 28-27 "victory" over Likud in 2009, the media persists in maintaining this false narrative, so many people swallow it because of the Availability Cascade cognitive bias (i.e. the more you repeat a given statement, the more people tend to believe it is true).

But now I have another dilemma.  I fundamentally disagree with Eli Yishai's economic and social platform, and I find Baruch Marzel a little too extreme even for my tastes.  But I would prefer for these two fellas to be in the Knesset rather than a couple of extra left-wingers.  And here's the rub: according to the last polls released before the 7-day blackout on surveys before election day, Yachad is hovering on the edge of the electoral threshold.  If they make it over the required 3.25%, they will have at least 4 seats.  If they don't, those 4 seats will be divvied up proportionately among those who did make it.  Which means, assuming a roughly 50-50 split, that 2 of their seats will go to people I strongly disapprove of.

Under normal considerations, my single vote cannot be more than the tipping point for one Knesset seat to change hands (or bottoms).  In this case, however, my vote could constitute the tipping point for 4 whole seats!  So maybe I should refrain from voting for my first-choice party, and rather vote for a party that would otherwise be my fourth or fifth choice, just to help them get into the Knesset and strengthen the overall "right wing" bloc?  The argument is not without merit, even if it's not compelling.

But then... there's the law of unintended consequences.  For example, not so long ago everyone was calling for Bashar al-Assad to be deposed in Syria.  Now all of a sardine, everyone's gone quiet on that score.  What happened?   Islamic State, of course.  Who ever thought there could arise and even more vicious, cruel and despotic regime than Assad's?  Yet if he had fallen when the hounds were out for his blood, all the indications are that IS would have taken full control of Syria, as they have in Iraq where the West deposed another cruel and bloody dictator, and we would have had the richest, best equipped, most full-tilt nut-job Islamist terrorist organization in the world massing on our border.  Good thing we didn't get what we wanted, huh?

Similarly I could make the case that, Netanyahu's capacity for Churchillian oratory notwithstanding, perhaps the best thing for Israel is for him to lose power now, and Herzog to become prime minister?   Bear with me on this.  It's not too difficult to conjure up a scenario where Netanyahu would do a Sharon, and make a suicidal deal with the Palestinians.  So half the Likud would revolt -  big deal!  He would be able to pass the deal with the support of the Left and the Arab parties.  Herzog, on the other hand, has no such leeway, because as PM he would be battling everyone to the right of him, plus he would have a few security hawks in his own coalition who would need some serious persuasion.

Also, Netanyahu is right now the unchallenged leader of the Right.  He's unchallenged, because nobody can challenge him.  What, try depose a charismatic and powerful sitting prime minister from your own camp, who is received with wave after wave of standing ovations in Congress?  Obama didn't ever get that kind of reception, even when the Dems controlled Congress.  Moshe Feiglin challenged Netanyahu, and look how that worked out for him.

But if he were to lose, it would open up the playing field to other leadership contenders.  Herzog would maybe be able to hold together a coalition for two years, at the outside, and then we'll be back to new elections.  This would allow a new rising star to take over the leadership of the Right, perhaps someone more ideologically driven, with a fresh perspective and new momentum.  Like Feiglin, or Naftali Bennett, or who knows who else?  Maybe even Tzipi Hotovely?  It might be worth a couple years of watching Herzog trying to keep his government together, once the hate-Bibi glue has expired, and now all the conflicting demands of his coalition partners start playing off against each other.  Heck, the entertainment value of that might even be the payoff by itself!

I'm not trying to predict the future here or advocate a contrarian voting position; that's not the point.  All I'm saying is, there are so many different ways that things can play out, and trying to go Machiavellian on it is not guaranteed, or even highly probable, to lead to a better outcome; in fact, it could backfire seriously.

So I've made my decision: I will be a Zen voter, and simply vote for the party I feel best represents my views, and let the chips fall where they may.  And I respectfully submit that you should do the same.

It's election time - and I don't care!

For a person like me who is usually almost OCD about following the polls and election news, this is a completely new and liberating experience:  I have almost no interest in the daily reports about our upcoming elections.  I arrived at this happy place when I realized that it simply doesn't matter.  All the hype in the media about the day to day incremental polling trends, and what this politician says about that one, is irrelevant.

It's frankly a little embarrassing to see so many intelligent people making so much noise about whether the "Zionist Camp" or Likud will get more seats, as if that makes any difference.  Like, don't they remember what happened in 2009?  Kadima under Livni got one seat more than Likud under Netanyahu.  Does that mean they won?  No; Kadima got the most seats by cannibalizing votes from their natural coalition partners, Labor and Meretz.  So when it came time to form a coalition, Livni was stranded, and Netanyahu became Prime Minister again.  So too today: even if Yitzhak Herzog gets a couple seats more than Netanyahu, it won't make a shred of difference: the only thing that counts is how many total Knesset seats he will be able to command for a coalition.  And in those stakes, Netanyahu is king.  Between his natural coalition partners (Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu, Koolanu, Ha'Am Itanu) and the Haredi parties, their total poll numbers have consistently been hanging around the 70 mark, give or take a couple.  (Link to a great poll-of-polls analysis over time here, thanks to DG and ED.)  So barring some really major "black swan" event, I think we can pretty safely say that the large print of the day-after reports will probably read "Netanyahu re-elected Prime Minister".

The small print may be of slightly more interest, but not much.  The biggest swing factor will be whether Ha'Am Itanu makes it over the bar, but otherwise the trends are pretty much in a holding pattern.  A handful of seats may be swinging between various parties, but the overall picture is consistent: the government will once again be formed of a hodgepodge of medium and small parties.  They will thrash out a coalition agreement that nobody will be particularly happy with, and within a year or two, the government will once again fall due to internal bickering, and we'll be back at the polls.

Even if I'm wrong, and Herzog does manage to cobble together a majority of the Knesset to support a coalition under him, I don't really care.  His coalition would somehow have to include even more fractious partners, like Lapid with the Haredim, or Liberman with Meretz.  They wouldn't be able to do anything significant or dangerous, and the government wouldn't last long enough to give Livni even a day at the helm.

Netanyahu's proposed legislation to change the electoral system may or may not pass, but once again, it won't matter.  I know I'm pitting my intelligence against a guy who reportedly has a 180 IQ, but I simply cannot fathom how he thinks it will help to crown the leader of the largest party as Prime Minister automatically, even if he can't form a majority coalition.  Does it mean that the government will be able to pass laws even without a majority?  That's unthinkable; it means the Knesset might as well pack up its bags and go home, and you're effectively stuck with a dictatorship for 4 years.  But if you do need a majority to pass laws, then how will it help if the nominal Prime Minister cannot command that majority?  If anyone can educate me as to what subtle point I am missing, I'll be most grateful, but right now this idea looks pretty asinine.

So the cycle will repeat itself, returning to elections every couple of years that produce the identical outcome as the time before, with minor power shifts and flavor-of-the-month "centrist" parties rising and falling, until maybe someone significant decides to pursue the idea of switching to district representation, an event for which I have faint hope, for reasons I have explained before.

Perhaps my most compelling reason for getting excited about elections in the past was because each time was an opportunity for Moshe Feiglin to get elected.  He did, and performed superbly - and then he got ousted by the Likud and is not running in these elections.  So I really do have no horse in this race.  I haven't decided who I'll vote for, and when I do, I probably won't feel any need to advertise or proselytize, because it won't make any difference overall.  I do hope Feiglin will return to the scene with credible force next time around, because I think he's the one person who really has potential to shake up the system.

But until then, I'm watching the elections as a movie-goer watches an entertaining historical film.  Without any emotional involvement, without any need to trash-talk anyone, relaxed, and happy!

The Kachlon Conspiracy

Rafi asks a great question:

If Moshe Kachlon is so smart and talented, and I think he probably is, along with charismatic and dynamic with leadership abilities, why is he starting a new party?
I mean, doesn't he see how all these new parties were basically one-time wonders and then faded into obscurity? even the most successful of them all, Kadima, barely made it through two elections.. why does he think his party will be any different? He should have stayed with the Likud.
The worst part of it is that a guy like Kachlon, and the big names who I am sure will be on his list, will soon fade into obscurity just like those all before him, and that would be such a loss to the political system.

I was originally going to answer in the comments on his blog, but the more I thought about it, the more I figure the answer deserves a blog entry of its own.

My answer is not that Moshe Kachlon isn't smart or talented.  It's that Binyamin Netanyahu is extremely smart (he reportedly has an IQ of 180), and knows how to plan for the future.

First up, let's rewind a few years to before the previous elections, and put ourselves into the shoes of a genius-intelligence Prime Minister.  You look at the polls and conclude that you're going to sort-of win the coming elections, but be stuck with yet another scrappy coalition.  Every election it's the same thing: some new one-hit-wonder party claims to represent the disaffected "center", "middle class", or whatever, and walks off with a chunk of swing seats that is big enough to make or break a coalition.  This time it's Yair Lapid.  Last time it was Olmert with Kadima.  Before him was Tommy Lapid and Shinui.  And all of them come with their demands that you simply cannot ignore when drawing up your coalition agreement.  Wouldn't it be nice if for once, just once, the new kid on the block turned out to be someone who is ideologically aligned with you, and will actually play nicely once he's in government?

Hmm... thinks... what if, what if... what if I had to prepare already now for the election after this one?  I'll have to make do with a coalition with Lapid this time around... but why not prepare the ground already for next time, and have someone friendly lined up, ready to take the swing votes?  But who?  Someone popular, someone whom I can trust... wait!  What about... Moshe Kachlon?  We'll have him resign gracefully from politics for the time being... make noises about how we regret his decision and hope he'll reconsider... and then next election, he can start his own party, ride on the his popularity that we'll cryogenically freeze now... and he can take the regular 15-20 seats reserved for the flavor-of-the-season "centrist" party... and then yesh lanu esek!  No more need to lean on whiny, treacherous coalition partners... at last we will have a stable government!

So what do you think of this benign conspiracy theory?  Here are some backup facts: Moshe Kachlon is a stalwart Likudnik, whose economic and social views to date have been very much in line with Netanyahu's.  He's not your typical "centrist"; in fact, he was one of the 13 Likud loyalists who voted against the Disengagement.

If I'm right, Kachlon will be given a very senior position in the coming coalition.  And as to the point Rafi raised that he will disappear into obscurity at the next elections - that's only if he doesn't merge his party into the Likud, and grab a spot at the top there.

But then what will be with the next election?  Who will grab the "center" vote if Moshe Kachlon is tainted by his return to the Likud?

Why, Gidon Saar, of course...

I go viral!

2021 Update: see here

I have a confession to make: for years, it's been one of my private ambitions to start a viral Internet hoax.  I am fascinated by what makes people forward/like/share information that is obviously fake.  I haven't really been trying that hard, but I have made some lame attempts at an over-the-top virus warning, and created a phony Facebook competition to win a million dollars that attracted absolutely zero interest.

And then, a few days ago, in a moment of frustration at Israel's lame leadership, I penned the speech I wish we could hear from our Prime Minister ending it with the line, "... and then I awoke, and it was all a dream", and shared it on Facebook.

Nothing much came of that, or so I thought.  A few people commented on the article, and there were one or two shares.  And that was it.

Until a few days later, when someone forwarded to me the entire text of my speech, minus the last line.  In other words, they believed this was a real speech, and had sent it to me because they thought I would take heart from it.

I did.  I so did!  At first, I sat staring at the screen, open mouthed, then as I checked the "forwarded" thread to see how many degrees of forwarding this mail had gone through, I broke into a huge smile, a laugh, and I actually started jumping for joy.  Really.

I had done it!  Without even trying!  My fictional prose - my very own! - had gone viral as a chain email hoax!

To whoever took the trouble to copy and paste my text into email without attribution: I forgive you.  And I love you.  With rockets flying in all directions around my ears, you have made my month.  Thank you.

Breaking News: Netanyahu's speech to Hamas

2021 Update: see here

Breaking news: Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu just made the following speech in front of the Knesset:

To Ismail Haniya, and the leaders and operatives of Hamas:

We, the people of Israel, owe you a huge debt of gratitude.  You have succeeded where we have failed.  Because never before, in the history of the modern State of Israel, has the Jewish people been so united, like one person with one heart.  You stole three of our most precious children, and slaughtered them in cold blood.  But before we could discover the horrible truth, we had 18 days of pain and anxiety while we searched for them, during which our nation united as never before, in prayer, in hopes, in mutual support.

And now, as you continue to launch deadly missiles indiscriminately, intended to maim and murder as many civilians as possible, while you take cowardly refuge behind your own civilians - you continue to inspire us to hold strongly onto our newly discovered unity.  Whatever disputes we Jews may have with each other, we now know that we have one common goal: we will defeat you.

But we are offering you now one last chance.  Within 24 hours, all rocket fire - and I mean all rocket fire - will cease.  Completely.  Forever.

I give you formal notice that our tanks are massed at the Gaza border, with artillery and air support at the ready.  We have already dropped leaflets over the northern parts of the Gaza strip, warning civilians of our impending arrival, and that they should evacuate southward, forthwith.  If you fail to meet our ultimatum, we are coming in, and, with God's help, this time we will not leave.  Every centimeter of land that we conquer will be annexed to Israel, so that there will never be another attack launched at our civilians from there.

Even so, we will continue to keep the door open to allow you to surrender gracefully.  The moment you announce that you are laying down arms, we will halt our advance, and there we will draw our new borders.  If you continue to attack our citizens, we will continue to roll southwards, driving you out of territory that you will never again contaminate with your evil presence.

It pains me deeply that your civilians will be made homeless.  But we did not choose this war; you did.  And if our choice is between allowing our citizens to be targeted mercilessly by your genocidal savagery, versus turning your civilians into refugees, I regret that we must choose the latter.  If only you loved your people as much as you hate ours, this war would never have happened.

To the rest of the world: Israel has tired of your ceaseless chidings that we should "show restraint".  When you have your entire population under constant missile fire from an implacable enemy whose stated goal is the of murder every man, woman and child in your land, then you may come and talk to us about "restraint".  Until then, we respectfully suggest that you keep your double standards to yourselves.  This time, Hamas has gone too far, and we will do whatever we have to in order to protect our population.

Hamas, once again, I thank you for bringing our people together with such clarity of mind and unity of purpose.  The people of Israel do not fear the long road ahead.  Am Yisrael Chai.


... and then I awoke, and it was all a dream...

Coalition Predictions Scorecard - and more

In a previous posting, Post-Election Game Theory, I laid out my predictions for how the coalition would look.  With the new government finally having been sworn in, after way more haggling than anyone expected, let's go back now and see how I did, only mentioning areas where I specifically went out on a limb.

1. Tachlis: I predicted a government composed of Likud, Yesh Atid, Bayit Yehudi and Kadima.  I was out by one: the Tzipi Livni Movement instead of Kadima.  (Or is that in addition to Kadima?  Nobody in the media seems to know - or care - whether Kadima is in or out of the coalition.  Me neither.)  
2. Labor: despite Netanyahu's sincere efforts to woo Yecimovich into the coalition, she stuck by her guns, as I predicted.
3. Bayit Yehudi: despite some very bad blood between them (apparently worse than I thought originally), Bibi finally had to bring Bennett into the government.  He really didn't want to, but like I said, the numbers just didn't work otherwise.
4. Shas: could conceivably have overcome their incompatibility issues with Yesh Atid by looking for compromises, but instead chose to dig in to their trenches, and now find themselves with no say in how the "sharing the burden" debate plays out.  Merubeh tafasta, lo tafasta - try get too much, and you end up with nothing.  I wish I had been wrong about that prediction, but I wasn't.
5. UTJ, while less strident in their rhetoric than Shas, also chose the route of conflict.  Pity, but also a clear call.
6. Tzippi Livni: this is the only one that completely blindsided me.  I was totally gobsmacked when Netanyahu cut the first deal with Livni, especially with her as lead negotiator with the Palestinians.  I think he thinks putting her into that position is going to teach her some stark lessons in reality, as in "Good luck with that!" - but frankly I'm quite afraid that she will be able to do Israel a lot of damage from that position. But given that she was included, it makes Kadima's piddly 2 mandates completely inconsequential, and therefore wasteful to include them in the coalition.

So it wasn't a 100% score, but still not too bad.  And from that position, I'm going to make a few more predictions.

1. Tzippi Livni won't last long in the government.  She can't.  Her pet issue is making a peace agreement with the Palestinians, and she will be unable to do so, for any number of reasons.  Either the Palestinians will continue to refuse flat-out to return to negotiations and continue on the unilateral track, or they will only come back to that table on condition that Israel in principle agrees to roll over and die as a precondition for restarting talks.  Livni will probably accept any preconditions they want, but she will be overruled by the rest of the coalition - or at least, I hope so.  Furthermore, with Bayit Yehudi controlling the Construction Ministry, and Moshe Yaalon as Minister of Defense, sooner or later Livni is going to proclaim that peace is just not achievable while we continue to "provoke" the Palestinians by allowing the residents of Efrat to enclose their verandas and instructing the army to actually defend themselves against Molotov cocktails rather than running away, and she will resign in a huff, doing as much damage as possible in the international arena on her way out, and try her hand (again) at Opposition politics.  I don't think we'll have to wait a year for that to happen, maybe as little as six months.  
2. The burden will be shared, and it will be done intelligently and fairly.  (Now that's going out on a limb!)  Shas and UTJ are spoiling for a fight; they will threaten that all the Haredim will go to jail rather than serve in the army; and they will be disappointed.  There will be no imprisonments, no arrests, not even skirmishes.  The government will simply enact a set of financial rules that will give attractive economic benefits to people who complete the army or other national service, not much for people who are officially exempted (e.g. new immigrants), and an extra tax on people who refuse to serve.  The Haredim will not be given the option of being public heroes and dramatically going to jail; instead they will have the much harder choice between doing national service and getting the concomitant economic benefits, or refusing and quietly going the long haul with an onerous tax burden.  Faced with this dilemma, I believe the rank and file will vote with their feet, and despite the pashkevillin that will be plastered over every vertical surface in Mea Shearim and Bnei Brak, screaming about how this is a milchemes mitzva and a chillul Hashem to do any kind of national service, a very large number of Haredim will go along with the new system.  It will certainly beat the indentured poverty into which the old system forces them.
3. The government can fall in one of two ways: either Yesh Atid falls off the Left flank, or Bayit Yehudi falls off the Right.  The only way I can think of that Yair Lapid will be sufficiently outraged as to walk out of the government would be if the government fails to implement a "sharing the burden" plan.  If he ever does quit the government, it won't hurt Bibi, because the Haredi parties will be lined up to take his place - and that might result in the undoing of said plan.  Lapid is in this coalition for the long haul, and his negotiating power is weak, because 19 mandates notwithstanding, he is replaceable.
4. Bennett, on the other hand, is less constrained by such considerations, because he truly is irreplaceable   If Bibi ventures too far Left, Bennett can threaten to bring down the government.  The Haredim will not replace them in a coalition with Lapid.  And around 75% of the Likud MKs themselves will agree with Bennett.  Unlike the 2005 Disengagement government, the vast majority of the Likud MKs are now strong ideologues who will themselves vote no-confidence in the government if Bibi tries to do a Sharon on us.  Even if Bibi tries to get Labor involved, it just can't work out.  Result: no more insane concessions to the Palestinians, and Tzippi Livni will quit the coalition (see above).  So Bennett really is sitting pretty.
5. As a result of the above considerations, absent any "black swan" events, I'm calling that this coalition will see out its full term of office.  That will be a first!

All told, I'm pretty optimistic about this government.  The common thread between the major coalition parties is that they're security wise, free market supporters with a non-coercive approach.  I think on the whole things are looking up for Israel.

Your thoughts?

Smart voting

Now that all the votes are in, let me present you with some telling statistics.  Take a look at where the so-called "right wing bloc" cast their votes.

66,775 people voted for Otzma LeYisrael.  They failed to pass the 2% threshold, and will not even have one seat in the 19th Knesset.

345,985 people voted for Bayit Yehudi, giving them 12 seats.

331,871 people voted for Shas and 195,893 for UTJ (Gimmel).

885,054 people voted Likud-Beiteinu, giving them 31 seats and making them the largest single party, which is the only reason why the leader of the Likud right now is the presumed Prime Minister-elect.

In the Likud primaries prior to the elections, the highest ranked candidate got 47,777 votes, while the last person to make it into this Knesset got 21,843.  And in the primaries for leadership of the Likud a year ago, Binyamin Netanyahu defeated Moshe Feiglin by about 30,000 votes, according to the doctored official results (and I know first hand that the results were fixed); his actual margin of victory was probably closer to 20,000.

So, assuming you're someone who would like to see a God-fearing Jew leading the Jewish state - where do you get the most bang for your buck - or vote?  Be one of the 66,775 people who flushed their votes down the "Netz" toilet?  One of 345,985 people who might, for their trouble, earn one or two peripheral ministries? Or one of 30,000 people who, had they been Likud members, could have made Feiglin the Prime Minister today?

This truth applies no matter what your political views (assuming you're not more naturally at home with the Left - in which case, you should join Labor).  Let's say you're Haredi and want to make sure that men are free to continue studying Torah and not be drafted.  At this writing, coalition negotiations are still in progress.  As things stand now, Shas and UTJ's combined 18 seats won't be worth a ki hu zeh if they can't climb down from their trees and come to some sort of compromise with Yesh Atid about "shivyon b'netel"; Netanyahu and Lapid will simply form a government without them, and all these hugely significant issues will be decided for them.  If you want to make a difference, you should be signing up yourself, your friends and your Rabbis for the Likud.  Get Haredim into the party structures and onto the Knesset list for the 20th Knesset.  Over half a million people voted for Haredi parties in this election.  If 10% of those people had joined the Likud, you could have had several Haredi MKs lodged into the governing party, and it would have been impossible to make any changes to the status quo without your participation.  Chaval al hazman.

If you really want to make a difference to the governance of Israel, then vote smart.  It costs 64 shekels a year for one person, 96 NIS for a couple.  

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Post-election game theory

The day after elections is always the most fun.  That's when all the amateur pundits get to speculate about who will make up the next coalition.  I did that after the 2009 elections, and if I may say so myself, I thought I did pretty well.  Here's a list of the things I called right:

1. About Labor: "Ehud Barak has stated that he's expecting to be in the opposition, but I don't think he'd say no to any opportunity to be part of anyone's coalition... if he could hang on to a ministry - any ministry - by signing up for a Likud coalition, I don't think Netanyahu's diplomatic or economic agenda would faze him much. He might have more of a problem convincing his fellow MKs to come along for the ride..."  And so it was.  Barak surprised everyone else by leading Labor into a coalition with Likud, but halfway through the term, Labor split in half.
2. About Kadima: "Kadima is not equipped to be an opposition party, and my prediction is that if they are not at least part of this government, they will be destroyed in the next election by the comeback of the more ideologically motivated Labor and Meretz."  OK, according to the provisional results, they hung on to existence by their fingernails, with 2 seats.  And the votes from the army might yet push them off the edge.  But still... pretty much spot on.
3. Livni would lose out in the coalition negotiations game to Netanyahu, mostly owing to her having burned her bridges with Shas.

So, having established my credentials from past performance, I now present my analysis of the first 2013 Knesset elections.  (It's entirely possible we may be back at the polls later this year!)

Starting with the facts of seat allocations:

• Likud-Beiteinu: 31
• Yesh Atid: 19
• Labor: 15
• Bayit Yehudi (BY): 11
• Shas: 11
• UTJ: 7
• Meretz: 6
• Livni: 6
• Kadima: 2
• Arabs: 12

Everyone in the mainstream media (MSM) makes a big hoo-ha about the Left and Right blocs being evenly balanced at 60 each.  Utter nonsense, from 2 perspectives:

1. The Arab parties are not part of any bloc, inasmuch as they cannot be included in any coalition.  Even the Lefties might briefly flirt with the idea of surprising everyone and making the first ever coalition that includes the Arab parties, but they'll drop that idea as soon as they consider what will happen the first time Israel has to respond to a security threat.  If the Arab parties focused more on issues concerning the civil rights of Israeli Arabs and less on furthering the goal of destroying Israel as a Jewish state, there might have been something to talk about...
2. Shas and UTJ are not part of any bloc, either.  Economically speaking, they are much closer to Labor than Likud.  The only issue they have with the Left is the anti-religious slant of most Leftist parties.  Shelly Yecimovich, however, has been mostly conciliatory, and I thought her explicit refusal to demonize Haredim was a very dignified stand.  Theoretically, she could form an alliance with them.

So I'm not going to analyze these results in terms of "blocs", but rather interests.  Let's see where that leads us.

• Likud: This was the second consecutive electoral humiliation for Netanyahu.  In both 2009 and 2013 he started the campaign with the wind at his tail, and twice now he has led the Likud into a situation where they have won by an embarrassingly narrow margin.  He needs a very stable coalition now, because if his government collapses mid-term, the knives will be out for him in the Likud.  Moshe Feiglin is a MK now.  If Feiglin could take 33% of the Likud primary vote (before blatant cheating in the official vote count took it down to 24%) without even being a MK, Netanyahu knows he will be facing a very serious challenge next time around.  For this reason, he may be prepared to offer much more than he would otherwise have wanted to to other parties in order to get a big coalition.
• Yesh Atid: Another one-hit-wonder party takes the political scene by storm.  I give Yair Lapid a lot more credit than most other right-wing commentators; I don't think he's as rabidly anti-Haredi as his late father, and I actually do believe he has some ideals.  He's a pragmatist, not a Lefty, not a Righty, which I think makes him an obvious coalition partner for Netanyahu.  He's done the math, and knows that the Left can't form a government without Likud, and he wants to make a difference in government, so he will want to cut a deal with Bibi.  But he has some compatibility issues in the coalition.  His flagship issue was equality in bearing the burden of civic responsibility.  That puts him at direct odds with Shas and UTJ.  He has more seats than Shas and UTJ put together, so he's in a position to make serious demands.  If he's in government, it is very unlikely Shas or UTJ will be.
• Labor: Silly, silly Shelly painted herself into a corner by publicly insisting she would not join a Likud-led government.  She'll have major egg on her face if she backtracks now.  Being that she is otherwise a very sincere person who means what she says, she will be the Leader of the Opposition.
• Bayit Yehudi: Will unquestionably be in the coalition.  The math doesn't work otherwise.  With 31 Likud + 19 Yesh Atid + 11 BY, there's your majority of 61.  But too close for comfort.  And any one party could bring down the government.  Bibi needs more partners than that.
• Shas: As mentioned before, there's an incompatibility issue with Yesh Atid.  Frankly, Likud is closer to Yesh Atid, ideologically speaking, than to Shas.  The only way they will be able to get into government is by making compromises on things like army service and separation of synagogue and state.  The nature of Shas is to fight rather than compromise, so I reckon it's the opposition for them.
• UTJ: They're generally more moderate than Shas, but still, I find it hard to envision how they will be able to compromise on their core issues of keeping Haredim out of the army and the workforce.  Plus, they usually go hand in hand with Shas, so I also call them in the opposition.
• Tzipi Livni: The most delusionally egoistic politician in the country, she won't join Bibi's coalition without a huge price tag, like being named Deputy Prime Minister or something like that.  Even her piffling 6 seats won't tame her demands.  There will be talks, but they won't get anywhere.  Bibi wants more support from somewhere to shore up his government, but the cost of having her on board will be too much to tolerate.  She won't last long in the opposition, either - before the next elections she will huffily resign from the Knesset and go back into political retirement... before her next grand announcement of yet another comeback... yaaawn....
• Meretz: Too far left to consider.  Next, please.
• Kadima: At this writing, Shaul Mofaz is still not breathing any sighs of relief, because the votes from the army could yet push him back below the entry threshold for the Knesset.  But assuming he gets in, he knows his only chance of political survival will be to get some position of prominence in the coalition.  His price will be very cheap, and Bibi will take him.  Plus, he has the added benefit of being a "Center Left" party... and Lapid promised he wouldn't join the coalition without another "Center Left" party.  Houston, we have synergy.

So my final prediction is that the coalition will be Likud, Yesh Atid, Bayit Yehudi and Kadima.  Bibi may make overtures to a few others, and it's not out of the bounds of possibility that another party or two will be enticed to join, but unlikely.

Bets, please!

Pre-election analysis for rational voters

Looks like everyone else around town is blogging their thoughts on how to vote this Tuesday, so I don't see why I shouldn't either.  Hopefully this logical decision tree will help you make up your mind too!

Let's start with the big questions.  In most other democracies in the world, the barometer is, as Bill Clinton put it, "It's the economy, stupid."  In Israel, where we face permanent existential threats, this changes to: "It's the security, stupid."  Left and Right in Israel are more about your approach to Israel's geopolitical situation.  Thus the moribund Kadima, which ran very much a capitalist, free-market economy under Ehud Olmert's tenure, is considered "Left", because of its "dovish" views on security, while Shas is considered "Right", despite its practically socialist economic platform.  Or at least, it was considered Right under Eli Yishai... things look a little different now that Aryeh Deri has successfully staged his coup...

So decision 1 in the tree is this: do you believe that Israel needs to make more concessions to the Palestinians in order to make peace?  If your answer is yes, your choice is between Labor, Yesh Atid, Kadima, Tzippi Livni's Movement (aptly named), and Meretz.  I won't dwell too much here because frankly they all make me ill.  I have some grudging respect for Shelly Yecimovich as a worthy adversary, and Meretz just because they actually do have an ideology.  If you're on this side of the political fence, here's where we part ways; I won't presume to advise you anything other than that you please should vote on Wednesday.

So if, like me, you're of the opinion that the Arabs will never agree to any peace deal with Israel that deprives them of the "right" to continue attempting to destroy Israel outright, you're left with several options: Likud-Beiteinu, Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home), Shas, UTJ (Gimmel) and Otzma L'Yisrael (Strong Israel).

Now some haredi readers might have tagged along till now, thinking, "There are more important things than security - like Torah.  It doesn't matter what security platform anyone has; the most important thing is that they are frumme Yidden who will make sure that the Torah world is well looked after."  I think the "Daas Torah" argument was very adeptly handled by Rav Slifkin - he put it much better than I ever could.  I will simply add that I have never forgiven UTJ for selling out the Jews of Gush Katif and voting for Sharon's 2005 Disengagement budget in exchange for a 290 million shekel bribe.  And it's not for me to forgive.  When they ask for (and receive) forgiveness from those 10,000 Jews for the trauma and suffering they callously caused them, then they can try and convince me that they're the party that represents Torah.  Till then, don't even talk to me.

Shas?  If you had to poll secular Israelis for which political party turns them off Judaism the most, I reckon Shas would coast home, even before UTJ rounded the final bend.  Aside from their socialist economics and the new Leftist inclination under new management - for crying out loud, they have a convicted embezzler at the top, who still shamelessly claims he's the victim of a Sephardophobic conspiracy!  You believe the conspiracy theories?  Then Shas is for you.

Now we're down to the wire.  3 parties left, all very security minded, all opposed to making stupid concessions to the Arabs that will only further undermine our position.  But wait?  Didn't Netanyahu, in his last term, do exactly that?  Building freezes, outpost evacuations, internationally declared support for the "two state solution"?

My gut wants to punish Netanyahu, and vote for one of the other two right-wing parties.  But let's take a step back and consider the implications.

I love Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben-Ari, just for the fact that they are so proud of their ideological stand.  You won't find them zigzagging about conscientious objection or our rights to all of Eretz Yisrael.  They are colorful and entertaining - but they are totally irrelevant to the overall political process.  Even if they got 10 seats in the Knesset they would be irrelevant, in the same way as the 11-12 Arab MKs are also irrelevant.  They will never be included in any coalition, and will never have any effect on government policy.  All they can do is make a noise from the sidelines.  Not that that noise is without value; it's good to have a fiery opposition, if just to raise public consciousness.  But you can get better bang for your buck as far as voting is concerned.

Naftali Bennett and Bayit Yehudi are really the phenomenon of the election.  From a combined 5 seats in the outgoing Knesset (BY plus half the National Union), they are looking at somewhere between double and triple that in the coming election.  I have tremendous respect for them, they have a strong, high-quality list of candidates (special mention for Jeremy Gimpel), and they are very likely to form part of the new coalition, which means they can influence government policy.  Or can they?

Well, not really, when it comes down to the wire.  If you recall, before the Disengagement, Sharon had a coalition including Mafdal (BY's predecessor).  When Mafdal voted against Disengagement, Sharon simply fired them and re-formed his coalition with the Left.

The fact is, BY may be part of the coalition, but they will always be dispensable if they ever get too uppity.  So Netanyahu will throw them a few bones to keep them happy, but they do not have critical leverage.

Now let's look again at the Likud-Beiteinu list.  Back in 2005, when the Likud split over the Disengagement, there was only a handful of Likud MKs who stood strong and voted against the Disengagement the whole way.  Today, things look very different.  In the top 21 of the Likud list, only 3 candidates have declared support for the two-state solution - Netanyahu himself, Hanegbi and Shama-Hacohen.  The rest of the list is filled with people of the calibre of Feiglin, Danon, Hotovely, Levin, Elkin, etc.  Aside from them, Saar, Erdan, Chaim Katz and Gamliel were all among the "Likud rebels" who voted against disengagement.  Also, very significantly for those of us in Beit Shemesh, Keti Sheetrit is in the long-shot position 38.  It would be really good for our city to get our first ever MK.  The Yisrael Beiteinu part is also very ideologically strong, including people like Yair Shamir and Uzi Landau.  The Likud of today cannot do another disengagement - because the prime minister would literally be left on his own.  Bayit Yehudi is dispensible, but the Likud is not.  The prime minister has to caucus with these people every week, and he cannot do anything without having his own team on board.

And it's not even the case that a vote for Likud is equivalent to a vote for Bayit Yehudi.  The smaller the Likud is, the less stable the coalition will be, and the more likely Netanyahu will have to rely on the Left to build his coalition.  Let's take a hypothetical best-case scenario where Likud-Beiteinu gets 61 seats by itself, and doesn't need any other party to join the coalition.  In such a case, there would be no need to buy off smaller, sectoral-interest parties, no ministers-without-portfolio, no need for pork mutton-barrel politics.  Imagine that!  You could have a government that is focused only on things that matter, rather than having to keep soothing the egos and budget needs of disgruntled nochschleppers.

The opposite scenario is too horrible for words.  Imagine Likud with 30 seats, BY with 15, Labor with 19, Yesh Atid with 12, Shas with 11, UTJ with 6, Livni with anything.  Now Likud has to pull in at least two other parties just to break 61.  In order to neutralize the threat of any one party being able to bring down the coalition, you would need 61 plus the number of seats of the next biggest coalition partner.  We'll need so many joke ministries it's frightening: a "Minister for Administrative Affairs", a "Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister's Office" and 3 Ministers Without Portfolio.  Every one of these coalition partners is going to be constantly whining about the amount of budget they get allocated to their pet cause, and since no two of them will be able to agree on anything of significance, it'll be another 4 years of being stuck in the same rut.  Sound familiar?  Yes, that's exactly the scenario we have today.

When you vote for a splinter party, you are voting for bloated government, inefficiency and corruption.

So I'm voting Likud.  They have governed this country excellently for the last four years, and they will do even better, the more they are free of the whines and demands of coalition partners.  The Likud has a party list I'm proud of, and I think they are the best people on offer to be running the government on Israel.

I hope you will do the same!

Refusing Orders - Left, Right & Wrong

This latest tempest in a teacup about Naftali Bennett supposedly advocating refusal of orders has been badly played by everyone, in my opinion.  Netanyahu, by pouncing on him the way he has, has given the impression that he is, indeed, planning Disengagement II - although I don't personally believe that to be true; rather I think he's just trying to win back some of the swing votes that Bayit Yehudi has been steadily pulling from Likud.  And Bennett himself, by climbing down do hurriedly, left himself looking wishy washy.

Personally I think Bennett could have made a stronger and more principled stand by clarifying a nuance that seems to have been overlooked by pretty much everyone.

There are two types of refusal of orders.  One is where you are second-guessing your superiors, because you think you know better than them.  If your commander screams, "Acharai!" - then you better darn well be there behind him, even if you think it's a foolish move.  Refusing orders under such circumstances is indeed dangerous and damaging to the entire structure of the army.

The other kind is where you are given an order that you believe is immoral.  For example, let's say a commander orders a soldier to drive his fellow soldiers to the beach for a party on Shabbat.  Under such circumstances, the soldier is obligated to say, "I'm sorry, Sir, but I take my orders from the King of Kings, and I cannot do that."  The penalty could be a court-martial, imprisonment, or any amount of money, and the soldier is obligated to refuse orders.

In practical terms, going back to 2005, if a soldier decided to refuse orders because he believed the Disengagement was a foolish mistake and tactically wrong, that it would bring rockets on the whole of Southern Israel and make Israel's geopolitical situation infinitely worse, he would have been wrong to do so.  A soldier's business is not to reason why, but to carry out his orders.

On the other hand, if a soldier saw the Disengagement as immoral and evil, because of (among other things) the injustice it was doing to the families of Gush Katif, then he would have been obligated to refuse to participate in any way, even by taking over the duties of another soldier stationed on the Lebanese border, so that that soldier could go and rip Jews from their homes (מסייע לדבר עבירה).

I believe this is the moral duty of any soldier, anywhere, to be true to his morals - and be ready to pay the price.  This is true also for a leftist who believes it is immoral to serve in Judea & Samaria.  He should refuse orders, and be prepared to be court-martialed and imprisoned for his beliefs.  And if he is not prepared to stand tall, openly refuse orders and take the punishment, that's a good sign that his refusal is not based on moral considerations.

Suppression of the soldier's individual conscience and morality is a very dangerous and evil thing to advocate.  The logical extreme of this attitude is summed up in the infamous excuse:

"Ve vos chust following orders!"

Letter to Mr Netanyahu

I just posted this letter to the Israel Prime Minister.  I'll update if I get a response.  Meanwhile, what are your thoughts about this?

------


Dear Mr Netanyahu,

Firstly, I commend you on your masterful handling of diplomacy in conducting this war in Gaza.  When even Catherine Ashton finds herself forced to issue supportive statements of Israel, one has to say that you are doing things really well.  In the age of Twitter and Facebook, international diplomacy is no less important than the actions of the troops on the ground.  Kol hakavod!

As an Israeli citizen (and, I might add, a Likud branch committee member here in Beit Shemesh), I would like to understand, though - what is your goal in this military operation?

I ask, because I remember Operation Cast Lead not so long ago, when our forces went in, dusted up a few terrorist hot spots, and then left.  At the cost of a miraculously small number of lives, and a huge amount of defence budget.  Now, 6 years later, Hamas is stronger than it was before Cast Lead, and our position in the international community is weaker than ever in our history.

Is this going to be Operation Cast Lead II, where we go in again, dust out a few more terrorist sites, and walk out again, so that in another 5 or 6 years we can do it all over again, but perhaps next time against a Hamas armed with "dirty" nuclear bombs?

I trust that you are in the best position in the country to judge our strategic position, and I do not presume to say that I could make better decisions from my armchair than you do.  But from my limited perspective, I cannot understand why we would bother wasting our resources on a military adventure of this scale of risk and expense, and putting the entire country through the trauma of war, if we do not intend to prosecute it to its logical conclusion: vanquishing the enemy outright and reconquering Gaza.  I don't care how much the world would condemn us for it; their condemnations are worth nothing against the hundreds or thousands of Jewish lives it would save, and the million people living under constant threat of attack.

So I would just like to understand from you: what is the goal of this operation?  And if you do not intend to re-take Gaza, then how are you planning to prevent this situation from happening again after the "ceasefire", once Hamas has had time to re-stock their arsenal with the best of Iranian and North Korean weaponry?

May the G-d of Israel bless you and your ministers with wisdom, so that you may guide us to a resounding victory over our enemies!

Sincerely, and with best wishes,

Shaul B

Political predictions

Mr 180 IQ shows his mettle

Please allow me the opportunity to gloat a bit. Today's political bombshell came as a huge surprise to most of the world, but not to me. I regret now that I never wrote it on my blog, but I have witnesses that I've been calling this practically since the results came out of the previous election.  This situation whereby the largest party in the Knesset constitutes less than a quarter thereof, and therefore it will be minority even within its own coalition, is utterly ridiculous.  The big parties know this, and despite their other political differences, they have one confluence of interests, which is the reform of the electoral system such that 3- or 4-seat splinter, sectoral-interest parties are either eliminated or neutered.  I predicted that 6 months to a year before the next elections came due, Netanyahu (with his estimated 180 IQ) should have enough sense and foresight to band together with Labor/Kadima/Yisrael Beiteinu (or whatever configuration thereof would get him a Knesset majority) and in one signal act, they would jointly nail the smaller parties and institute a major electoral reform to benefit the mainstream parties, before dissolving the Knesset and going to elections under the new rules.  When all this talk started about dissolving the Knesset already and going to new elections, I was sorely disappointed.  And then this morning - I was vindicated!  Bibi has been listening to me all along, and this whole spiel about going to elections now was just a clever ruse to catch everyone else off guard.  A brilliant ploy, indeed.

Mofaz - is he really a winner from this?

Now let's look forward.  Today everyone is lauding this as the largest coalition in Israel's history.  Personally, I don't give it a month in this configuration.  The main "official" reason given for Kadima entering the government at this point is to draft a replacement to the Tal Law, which gave automatic exemption from conscription to Charedim, and effectively prevented anyone who didn't go to the army from getting a legal job.  The other, less touted reason is, as I mentioned above, is electoral reform.  Other than that, there is very little in common between the main coalition partners - from security to social policy, Kadima (at least under Livni) was reflexively opposed to anything the Likud said or did.  Even assuming they have no actual principles other than the pursuit of power, and being in government is currently in their interests, they are not going to give an easy rubber stamp to anything Bibi wants, because they need to distinguish themselves before the next scheduled elections, and somehow do something that will reverse their current abysmal showing in the polls.  If they go quietly to the next elections as acquiescent enablers for Bibi, Labor will eat them alive.  They will have to manufacture some "principled" reason to walk out of the coalition before the next election. Which makes Bibi's pre-condition to Mofaz that Kadima will stay in the coalition to the bitter end all the more ingenious.  If Mofaz complies, without achieving anything for the Left, Labor will have him for breakfast.  If Bibi plays his cards right, he will keep Mofaz on a short leash, but not violate any of today's agreements, so if Mofaz decides in 9 months' time to bolt the coalition for some contrived reason, he will look like a whiner who doesn't honor agreements.  Granted that this is still a better scenario for Mofaz than going to elections now, but still his only hope is that in the next year Bibi gives him substantial grounds for quitting the government on principle and looking like a hero.  And Bibi has a 180 IQ.

Now, given that Kadima and Likud's only real shared interests are (a) replacing the Tal Law, and (b) electoral reform, where is that going to leave the smaller parties in the coalition?  Mafdal (Bayit Yehudi) might be game for a new Tal Law, but Shas will squirm and UTJ will vehemently oppose any change to the current situation, whereby Charedim are prevented by social pressure from joining the army, and therefore by law from joining the workforce, which leaves them no alternative but to stay in the Beis Midrash (and incidentally, in near-guaranteed lifelong poverty).  And as for electoral reform, which is totally against their interests, all of them will try to block anything new.  But now, with Kadima in the coalition, Netanyahu can (and probably will) simply throw them out, and railroad the electoral reform without them.

Nachal Charedi soldiers

Once the Tal Law replacement and electoral reform have been legislated, I believe the coalition with Kadima will have served its purpose.  Being that Likud and Kadima are such bitter rivals, the coalition will anyway be unmanageable, and for Netanyahu's next trick, he will dissolve the Knesset then and there, catching everyone else flat-footed.  He will look like a genius, having deftly manipulated Kadima in and out of his government, Mofaz might be able to claim some credit for showing some national responsibility, and the small parties will get the short end of the stick.  The next government, led again by Likud, might even get an outright majority, once the right-wing splinter parties realize their interests will best be served by joining up with the Likud.

All in all, kudos to Netanyahu for bringing about what I think will be a very significant and beneficial shakeup to the Israeloi political landscape.

The speech we wish Bibi could have given

Ah, if only we had a PM who had the guts to tell it like it is...

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Stan's right to have babies

It struck me that every one of Bibi's conditions for Palestinian statehood is very reasonable, yet even before the applause for his speech had died down, the Arabs had rejected every one of them offhand, and blamed him for setting unacceptable conditions. ("What?! You want our independence not to come at the expense of yours?! Outrageous!")

In effect, Bibi's nod to a Palestinian state is no more meaningful than Judith's proposal that Stan should have the right to have babies. Well played, man!

The best possible outcome x2

Yesterday there were two fairly significant events: Bibi Netanyahu's grand policy speech, and continued and escalating riots in Iran protesting the stolen election.

All told, I don't think things could have turned out better in either situation.

I'm not going to dissect Bibi's speech here; there are some very good analyses from Jameel and Barry Rubin, among others. I will just say that I think he played his hand very well. He made an offer to the Arabs that incensed the Right, but it's got as much chance of coming to fruition as, we have of, well, the Arabs acknowledging Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state, with Jerusalem as its undivided capital, and not flooded with millions of Arab "refugees". He also had the guts to say "NO" to Obama's noxious demands that we effectively sterilize the Jews who live over the Green Line; and he gave a good lesson to the Prez about Jewish history in Eretz Yisrael not having started with the Holocaust. Just a pity that he failed to call for the release of Jonathan Pollard. Maybe he felt that he'd pushed his luck enough already... but still...

In summary, I would have been ecstatic if he'd given the speech that Moshe Feiglin wrote for him, but I don't think Bibi, given that he does not believe in G-d, could have done any better than he did last night.

Strangely enough, I'm much more captivated by the goings on in Iran than I am by the repercussions of Bibi's speech. Before the elections I was in contact with an 19-year-old Iranian programmer whom I met on StackOverflow. I asked him what his feeling was on the election, and he said he wasn't even going to bother to vote. There was originally a field of hundreds of candidates, but the list got sanitized by the mullahs until there were only 4 candidates who got the hechsher of Iran's Supreme Leadership. If they got the hechsher, that basically automatically disqualifies them as a real hope for the people. They could only choose between Bad, Filthy, Disgusting and Utterly Repulsive.

So I thought, perhaps it's actually worse if Ahmadinejad loses! Coz then the new guy can come in and pretend that he wants to talk with the West, while buying more and more time to continue developing nuclear weapons apace, and still spewing the same hatred and genocidal invective against Israel. At least if Ahmadinejad wins, he can't even fake moderation! It'll be more difficult to pretend that talking to him is going to help things - although I think Obama has already decided that he has no problem with Iran having the Bomb.

But lo and behold! The Iranian people turned out in their masses to vote for Bad instead of Utterly Repulsive - and when their votes were stolen, they decided they had had enough! They have tasted freedom, and they are not going to let go! And it's not just about rallying around the guy who lost. I don't think the Iranians just want a change in government; if they did, I wouldn't be so interested. I think they want a change in regime.

Take a look at all the Twitter traffic emanating from Iran. People aren't just chanting, "Down with Ahmadinejad," or "Long live Moussavi" - they are shouting, "Death to Khamenei!"

It's really amazing, seeing as I'm in the middle of rereading Natan Sharansky's The Case For Democracy - to see how perfectly accurate his words are. We are watching a fear society in its last stages before collapse. The people have tasted freedom, and the regime is being forced to spend every last iota of its power to repress them and beat them into submission. As his last throw of the die, Ahmadinejad is playing his only trump card - the bogeyman of "foreign enemies" who are plotting against Iran and trying to sabotage its internal affairs. Sharansky identified this, too - the only way to keep True Believers as TBs, and to prevent doublethinkers from becoming dissenters is to focus their attention on outside enemies, to serve as a rallying point. Looking at the footage of the Iranian riots, I think it's too late for that.

IMO it's going to go either one of three ways from here.

1. The mullahs carry out their own version of Tiananmen Square, crushing people's will to resist. Try papering over a massacre when you're trying to fake moderation to the West. Even Europe will have a hard time justifying doing business with Iran after that.
2. They will give in to pressure and either annul the election results or institute some kind of power sharing between the candidates. There will also have to be some kind of regime reform to accompany that if they want the people to calm down. Yet another crack in the fear society's brittle fortifications.
3. The people storm the Bastille, as it were, and literally throw the mullahs from power. Not so far-fetched; from what I'm reading on Twitter, the army has declared it will not fight against the protestors, and the government is being forced to use Hizbullah Arabs for crowd control, because the local Farsi police are to compassionate on their brethren.

I'm rooting for number 3. But whatever happens, Iran's fear society is crumbling, and we can look forward to the liberation of the Iranian people from their dictatorship sooner than you think. The only thing that can save them now is if the West, in its infuriating "realist" delusions, decides to give the mullahs and Ahmadinejad a hand-up, all in the name of "regional stability". Right now what the people of Iran really need is for the USA and Europe to come out publicly supporting their struggle for freedom. If they fail to do so, then when the Iranians finally do liberate themselves, they will resent us all the more for failing to come to their assistance.

You can also make a difference. Use the social networking web sites to post messages of encouragement to the Iranian people, who deserve freedom no less than any other nation on Earth. Tell them we are with them; encourage them to liberate themselves - and show them that they have friends in the Weat, and especially in Israel.

Groan - Netanyahu immediately disappoints...

Well, looks like my earlier posting of today was wrong; apparently Netanyahu was not finessing anything, nor was he asserting anything about the Arabs having to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. Quoth he:

"Contrary to reports, I don't condition dialogue with the Palestinians on recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. Nevertheless, progress in the peace process does depend on the willingness to recognize Israel as a Jewish state."

Blah blah blah. Granted, we won't make any progress, but we will still go on talking... and allowing ourselves to be pressurized into making unreciprocated concessions... and destroying Jewish towns and lives... while the Pals do nothing but incite against us in their official media and complain to the world that we're poisoning their wells, using the blood of their children to bake matzos... etc. etc.

Ugh. For a few hours there I thought we were going to see a new style of leadership and advocacy... but it looks like Bibi is slotting straight back into the Kadima/Labor mode of apologetics, concessions and never holding the Palestinian leadership accountable for anything - lest Heaven Forfend! it should turn out that our supposed "peace partners" also want us dead, just as much as Hamas. They only differ on tactics.

Bibi, you let the side down badly. Again.

All credit to Netanyahu

Bibi Netanyahu is not my favorite politician in the world, but I have to hand it to him, his demand for the PA to recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people as a precondition to restarting talks was a genius of a maneuver. The Arabs couldn't bring themselves to accept this, and have launched a pretty pathetic counter-offensive in the media to regain the upper hand.

What this really highlights is the stark difference in approach between Bibi and his opponents. Olmert, Livni et al were completely bent on ignoring the fact that no amount of concessions would ever get the Arabs to accept Israel as a Jewish state. Bibi, in one deft finesse, has exposed for everyone to see the fact that we have no partner for peace - for if they will not accept the fundamental premise that Israel is the state of the Jewish people as a starting point, then there is nothing to talk about. Even Obama can't paper over that - or can he?

So now Netanyahu can come out looking like the good guy: "We're willing to do anything we can for peace - but these guys are not in the game for peace."

Kol hakavod, Bibi! Now keep it up!