Don't mess with a programmer

One of the benefits of working for a large and successful multinational company is that they tend to give their employees a lot of free merch. 

So today I went onto our corporate partner website to place an order for yet another branded T-shirt celebrating our latest software release. Having selected my desired size, I then moved on to the shipping info. And here were the options presented to me for "state" (i.e. region):

This is not cool. I take a very dim view of some woke activist somewhere in the USA trying to use an innocuous business transaction to advance a controversial political agenda.

So, naturally I lodged a complaint with management. But I wanted my merch, anyway. And I refused on principle to fill in my address with the option supplied. So, I didn't.

Elections Take 2: Game Theory analysis

It's election time, take 2. For those who have joined us late, here's a TL;DR of the situation:

Aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!

Ok, here's a little more detail:

Israel had elections on 9 April 2019. Even though the "right wing" bloc had comfortably enough seats to form a government, Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu) decided that he would not sit in any government with the Haredi parties. His 5 seats were required for a majority, so Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu could not form a coalition without involving parties to his left, and none of those parties were interested. So rather than allowing Benny Gantz of Kachol Lavan (Blue & White) to have a chance at forming a coalition, Netanyahu had the 21st Knesset dissolve itself, and new elections were called for 17 September.

Netanyahu was hoping that the outcome of the next election will make it easier for him to form a coalition. So, how's that working out so far? As it turns out, very well for Liberman, not so well for Netanyahu. As always, Israel is obsessed with polls, of which several get published every week. For the purposes of this discussion, I'll work with the poll showing the most optimistic numbers from Netanyahu's perspective, which I lifted off the Yisrael Hayom website:

Credit: Yisrael Hayom

This Channel 12 poll from 3 August shows Netanyahu with a total of 57 seats, if you exclude Yisrael Beitenu. And as I said, that's the most optimistic one for him. If the polls are accurate, Netanyahu still has no path to a right-wing coalition, unless Liberman suddenly decides that he's willing to climb down from his anti-Haredi tree. And why should he, seeing as his hardline stand seems to have literally doubled his support? No, Liberman has found what he thinks is a winning formula, and he will stick with it.

What about Gantz? Could he form a centre/left coalition? Here the answer is an even clearer No. His problem is the hate map among his prospective partners. It's like this: The Democratic Camp (heir to Meretz) won't sit with the Haredim. Nor will Liberman. And if there's anyone Liberman hates more than the Haredim, it's the Arabs. And even if he could be persuaded to sit with the Arabs, the United Arab List is too stuck in their anti-Zionist rejectionism, and under their current leadership, will not join any Israeli government. Gantz's optimal non-conflicting coalition is B&W, Labour, Shas, and UTJ, for a grand total of 50 seats. It's not happening for him.

So, back to Netanyahu - how else could he form a coalition? Well, logically speaking, if he can't do it with parties to his right, then he'll have to turn to his left. He has two realistic options here: B&W and Labour. Each has its advantages and disadvantages.

B&W is closer to Likud politically than Labour. A Likud/B&W coalition could potentially form a government without involving any smaller parties. If they need to bring in anyone else, Ayelet Shaked would be the obvious choice. Not Liberman, because I suspect Netanyahu would want to punish him for getting us all into the mess in the first place. Plus, he's shown himself to be an unreliable coalition partner in the past.

The biggest problem with B&W is that they will come with a big asking price, most likely a rotation deal for Prime Minister. And Netanyahu most certainly does not want to give up his job. That will be a deal breaker, in my opinion.

Labour, on the other hand, has embarrassingly little bargaining power, and cannot come with huge demands. If they ask too much, they will get nothing. I can easily see a situation where Netanyahu offers Amir Peretz some obscure post like the Welfare Ministry, and maybe something else peripheral like Agriculture for one of his cronies, in order to sit in the government. Peretz has two choices: a nice ministerial salary to see him comfortably into his retirement, or the glorious distinction of being the leader of the smallest faction in the Opposition. Whichever path he chooses, Labour will kick him out as leader before the next election (as appears to be their custom), so he really has nothing to lose. He'll come up with some rationalization about why he's joining a right-wing/Haredi government, and jump on the gravy train, as befits a good socialist. And that is Netanyahu's path to 61.

Now, you might think we're done here. But this is just where the fun begins. It's time to play Rational Pirates! BUWAHAHAHAHAAA!

Arrr! Shiver me timbers!

Of course, I'm referring to the famous Pirate Game, and if you don't know what that is, you should visit the link. I'm casting Netanyahu and Gantz as the Rational Pirates in our story.

Netanyahu knows he has a path to 61, as described above. But it has its problems. He needs five parties, including his own Likud, in his coalition, they all have their agendas pulling in different directions, and any one of the other four could bring down the government at the drop of a hat. Make that five other parties, since Yamina is just a technical bloc, and once they're in the Knesset they can function independently as the New Right and Bayit Yehudi. Running a government that is constantly beholden to the demands of five other coalition partners will not be easy. Wouldn't it be nice if he could just have one big partner--Blue & White--and not have to bother with those pesky little nudnik parties? If necessary, he could just pull in one other small party, maybe New Right, maybe Bayit Yehudi, to make his 61.

But Gantz wants a rotating Prime Minister position! "Well," Netanyahu can tell him, "I don't need you to form a government. I already have my path to 61, with Labour. But I'd prefer to work with you. We're not that far apart on most issues of substance, and together we can make a coalition that is not beholden to the whims of smaller parties, for the greater good of Israel! Rotating premiership is off the table, but you can have the Defense Ministry and even the Foreign Ministry. Of course, if you'd prefer to be the Leader of the Opposition instead for the next four or five years, that's fine...but chaval al hazman..."

Now Gantz has a quandary. He's made a lot of pronouncements about refusing to join a coalition with Netanyahu. But this really is a great opportunity to form the government that Middle Israel desperately wants. Free from the political demands of the Left and Right fringes; unencumbered by the budgetary needs of the Haredim. How will history remember him? As yet another Opposition leader who never made any impact? Or as the hero who put aside his personal differences with his political opponents, for the greater good?

Gantz nods sagely, then extends his hand to Netanyahu. "You've got a deal," he says. And this is how a coalition is formed between Blue & White, and maybe one other small party.

Alternative scenario: Zehut and Otzma Yehudit pass the threshold

All the above assumes that the smaller ring-wing parties, Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, fail to pass the 3.25% voting threshold. But what if they do? They immediately arrive on the scene with 4 seats each. Those 8 seats will come more or less proportionately off the rest of the parties. Let's say everyone else on that poll loses 1 seat, other than the Arab List (just for argument's sake). Now Netanyahu technically has a path to 61 with just right-wing parties: 29 Likud, 11 Yemina, 6 Shas, 7 UTJ, 4 Zehut, 4 Otzma. But it doesn't really change much from our previous scenario, where Labour filled in the gap; in fact, the optics of forming a coalition with the Kahanists are so bad that Netanyahu would arguably prefer to have Labour in the coalition rather than Otzma. Plus, he hates Moshe Feiglin of Zehut. So it's back to the Rational Pirates game, with pretty much the same inputs as before.

So it seems all roads lead to the same outcome: a Likud/Blue & White coalition, with Netanyahu as Prime Minister.

Of course, anything could happen in the next month, and the seat distribution could be wildly different from current polling. We'll take a look at that after 17 September. See you then!

Credit: Jpost

Election fun!

Seven talking points about the election on April 9

A lot of people are talking about how disillusioned they are about next week's general election in Israel, how no party really deserves their vote, and how bad and dangerous certain candidates or parties are. I have a different take on things that is a lot more upbeat. Here are seven talking points for your consideration.

1. The polls are (mostly) rubbish

One of the best things that has come out of this election is the legal ruling obtained by the Green Leaf Party early in the campaign, requiring (among other things) that polling companies release their raw data, not just their final calculations. While most of the media doesn't report on the raw data anyway, it's available, and extremely interesting. 

For example, I present you with Exhibit A, the raw data from a Channel 13 poll taken on 28 March:

The leftmost column is the percentage of respondents who chose the selected option; the middle column is the number of seats they are allocated, based on their raw data. Loosely. Very loosely.

The first thing I will draw your attention to is the contrast between the results of UTJ and the New Right. In the raw data, UTJ scored 3.8%, while NR got 3.7%: a virtual dead heat. Yet in the allocation of seats, UTJ gets 7, while NR gets only 5! Now, this is not necessarily gross misrepresentation; after all, UTJ supporters are particularly difficult to poll, since very many of them do not use the Internet, and do not have SMS-capable phones, so it is probably correct to bump their numbers up somewhat. But how much? That's a question for the judgement of the pollsters.

Where it gets a little more dodgy is how Likud (21.6%) and Blue & White (25.5%) both ended up with exactly 30 seats. Or how Zehut (7.5%) and Labour (7.8%) were allocated 7 and 10 seats respectively. I suspect the pollsters are taking the 9.1% of "Undecideds" and allocating them to other parties according to their best judgement. Or according to their own political preferences. Or according to groupthink. Whatever. Whether the data manipulation is innocent or nefarious, it's pretty clear that polling is not an exact science. Expect results that are nowhere near the conventional wisdom.

2. The media hype about the Left/Right blocs is utter rubbish

Cartoon: Philip Whisenhunt, The Commonwealth Times

Every poll gets trumpeted in the media as a scorecard of how many seats are in the "Right" bloc, and how many are in the "Center-Left" bloc. So, for instance, the above poll would be announced as "Right bloc leads 64-56". If they're feeling really adventurous, they might call Zehut the "balance of power", since its leader, Moshe Feiglin, has said he has no preference between Binyamin Netanyahu or Benny Gantz for Prime Minister, claiming that the score is "Right 57-56 Center-Left", with Zehut being the kingmakers. Sounds really close and competitive, right?

Well, it's all utter rubbish, because they are ignoring the fact that the Arab parties are less concerned about serving their constituency than about grandstanding against anything and everything the government does, and will never join any coalition, whether "Right" or "Center-Left". This is a great pity; I've said often that it would be really cool if a right-wing government could co-opt at least one Arab party into the coalition with some harmless portfolio like Minister of Welfare. But it isn't happening any time soon, at least not with the current crop of Arab politicians, so those 11 seats in the poll above are spoilers, and cannot be counted in any "bloc", other than their own. So why does the media keep harping on with this ridiculous scorecard? Because it keeps things exciting; it sounds so much more like a cliffhanger than if they had to tell the truth, which is "Right 64-45 Center-Left".

3. There are no (really) bad scenarios

Photo credit: JPost

I don't believe in trash-talking, not even directed against politicians, and I'm not going to start now. Fortunately, I don't feel much temptation to do so, either. I have friends who support almost every one of the major parties, and I have not attempted to persuade them otherwise, because all the party lists contain some excellent people, who really love Israel, and sincerely want to do their best for the country. They also have a lot of candidates I don't like, but it's unrealistic to expect to like every single candidate on your party list. I may disagree with their approach, but who's to say I know better than them? At the very least, I don't see anyone on the map who both (a) has an agenda that I believe will be seriously detrimental to Israel, and (b) will likely have the power to implement that agenda. The most serious concern I have is that the Blue-and-White party might install a trade union boss as finance minister, but I don't see that as a realistic scenario. As mentioned above, it seems to me that Netanyahu is a shoo-in to form the next government, but if it happens to be Gantz, I'm not too concerned; he would almost certainly have to rely on Feiglin to make his coalition, and Feiglin's price will include the Finance Ministry. Having Feiglin in the government also assuages any concerns I might have that a Gantz-led government would do anything too reckless on the diplomatic front. So, barring some kind of black swan event, I'm pretty relaxed about whatever outcome this election yields.

4. Zehut is a game-changer

That brings me to Feiglin and Zehut. Without getting into arguments for or against any aspect of their platform, I think it's fair to say that Zehut's entry into Israeli politics is a massive game-changer. Firstly, the fact that they even have a manifesto is, amazingly enough, unprecedented. Every other political party only has a list of personalities; you vote for the people and hope they do in office what they intimated they might do while they were campaigning. Zehut has a 344-page platform, spelling out exactly what policies they have committed themselves to. We'll see how good they are about following through on their commitments once they're in office, but one way or another, I hope more parties do the same in future, rather than asking us to close our eyes and open our mouths.

Just one of hundreds of Zehut memes

Secondly, Zehut has whipped up both support and opposition to levels of near-hysteria. You can't post a kitten video on Facebook, without some Zehutnik friend of yours commenting about how life will be better for cats once Zehut runs the country, see page 271 of the platform #מצביע_זהות. To which your Meretz friend responds, calling the Zehut friend a messianic fanatic who wants to build the Third Temple. Then a United Right friend accuses him of being a pothead who wants to destroy Judaism in Israel, followed by a Likudnik berating Feiglin for his anticipated betrayal of the Right, while a Blue & White supporter says Zehut is a dangerous cabal of extreme Rightists who will bring the apocalypse down on our heads. Seriously. Somehow, Zehut has stirred up the pot so much, that literally every other political party feels threatened by them, and the accusations against them are diametrically opposite, depending from direction they originate. That itself speaks volumes. Plus, it's hugely entertaining.

Thirdly, no party before has gone so hard for the jugular in terms of their libertarian agenda to root out the ugly vestiges of socialism in Israel. They are aiming for the Finance Ministry, and there is good reason to believe they will get it. And from there, I am very optimistic that they will liberalize the economy, removing the protectionism, tariffs, and other obstacles to the individual's economic success. Bring it on.

To the people who are worried about Zehut's proposed solution to the Palestinian issue, I get that concern. But, much like Blue & White's union boss is unlikely to become finance minister, I don't see Zehut dictating foreign or security policy any time soon, and they haven't prioritized those issues on their agenda. They're going for finance and education, and in both of those fields, I think they will be an excellent force for good.

5. There is life after Netanyahu

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

The election has been complicated by the legal cloud hanging over Netanyahu's head, though that doesn't seem to have affected his likelihood of reelection much. Nonetheless, the indictment against him carries some serious weight. Noah Roth posted an excellent and balanced analysis of the case here, and its really worth reading. 

The bottom line is that even after winning the election, Netanyahu could well be forced out of office. And if he is, the next prime minister will likely be determined by primary elections within the Likud. Are you a Likud member? If so, you may be treated to the privilege of directly electing the next leader of Israel. And despite the fact that many first time voters don't even remember a time when Israel had a prime minister not called Binyamin Netanyahu, everything will be OK. There are a lot of very good and highly qualified candidates in the Likud, and even some who speak English as well as Bibi. Netanyahu has been a very good prime minister, in my opinion, but even without his legal issues, he should have been term-limited. It's not good to have the same person in power for too long, and some fresh leadership might be nice.

6. Not much else will change

As mentioned above, Zehut's likely takeover of the Finance Ministry has potential to make some big impact on the economy. Plus, they've made cannabis legalization a sine qua non condition of entry into any coalition, and nobody is really that strongly against it, so I think it's safe to say we'll soon see pot on sale in pharmacies within the next year.

Other than that, I don't see many other policy initiatives making much headway. The Charedi parties will likely be indispensable to any coalition, so I cannot foresee any major changes to the status quo as far as social or religious legislation is concerned. The Likud will remain in control of security and foreign policy, so expect more of the same there. Ayelet Shaked is banging war drums against the High Court, but I don't foresee her achieving much more of a judicial revolution in her next term of office than she did in the first one. 

The really big unknown factor, of course, will be the unveiling of Trump's Middle East Peace Plan. I have no idea what's in it. Those who do know, aren't saying, and those who say, don't know. But that's one thing that has the potential to set the cat among the pigeons.

7. Relax, everything will be fine!

Credit: Chabad.org

This election is characterized by the fact that there aren't really any probable nightmare scenarios, which hasn't always been the case in past elections. Most of the candidates are actually pretty decent, and whatever happens, things will be fine.

It's not worth getting into heated debates on social media. Our relationships with our friends and neighbors will continue past April 9; it's really not worth burning them over one or two votes here or there.

Shalom al Yisrael!

Silent Thunder

Aliza Bloch (credit: Arutz 7)

I posted a couple weeks ago my prediction that Moshe Abutbul would win by a landslide. And  I was wrong, big time. At this writing, it's a cliffhanger, with Aliza Bloch looking likely to win once absentee ballots are counted.

So, analysis time. Where did I go wrong? My prediction was based on the persuasion principle, that calls to identity are more effective than reasoning. Bloch was campaigning based on her claims that the current management was incompetent and she would do a better job, while Abutbul simply played the "Daas Torah" card, i.e. "I am Haredi and if you are Haredi you must vote for me because the Gedolim say so." I saw that argument as basically irrefutable, and once it was set in stone that it was now a mitzva to vote for Abutbul, he could not lose; no True Believer could vote for Bloch with a clear conscience.

And that was my mistake. I thought there were only two options: Abutbul or Bloch. But there was a third option: simply to stay at home.

(credit: Times of Israel)

My first clue that this was happening came while I was counting votes at a station in the Haredi suburb of Heftziba. The vote count was 367 for Abutbul and 8 for Bloch. That doesn't look very impressive, until you look at the turnout: there were about 780 registered voters in that precinct. For an area that usually turns out 70-80% or more, when you get under 50% of your voters showing up, on a public holiday, and 65% of the rest of the city came to have their say, that's not apathy; that's a protest.

On the one hand, I can still claim a modicum of rightness in my original assessment; the vast majority of Haredim in Beit Shemesh would not actively disobey the instructions they were told emanated from their religious leaders by voting for the other candidate. But the simmering discontent, while not actually bubbling over, translated into a massive, passive no-show, which I contend was the single biggest factor in Bloch's victory. Look at the numbers, extrapolated from my polling station: had the 50% turnout been 75% instead, that's an increase of 50% of Abutbul's votes. So say what you want about maybe a couple thousand Haredim who voted for Bloch, or about a genuinely great get-out-the-vote effort from Bloch's team in the rest of Beit Shemesh; if those 25% of Haredi voters who were supposed to have been in Abutbul's pocket had shown up, that would have been at least an extra 10,000 votes for Abutbul, and a landslide.

(credit: PhysicsWorld.com)

Let that sink in. Ten thousand protest no-shows. That is what I call silent thunder. And the message, as I read it, is twofold. First, it is a stinging slap in the face to the askanim who regard the Haredi population as their obedient foot soldiers who will do their bidding unquestioningly. It says, "We are not yet ready for outright rebellion. But if you try to shove your decisions down our throats, and you don't provide us with the services we deserve, then you are asking too much."

Second, it is an implicit probation for Aliza Bloch. It says, "Don't expect us to be excited about you becoming mayor. We let you win, and you have a chance to prove yourself over the next five years. Do good, and we will let you win again; maybe we'll even support you. But beware: if you put a foot out of line, we will flick you like a fly out of the mayor's office."

Personally, I don't know if I've ever been happier to be wrong. I wish Mayor Bloch wisdom, understanding, blessing and every success in her new job, and hope she will over-perform so much  that in five years' time, even the Daas Torah thumpers will be behind her.

Congratulations, and good luck!

(credit: Times of Israel)

Machiavellian vs Zen voting

You would think it would be a simple thing deciding who to vote for: just find the party whose principles resonate most with you, or whose past performance has impressed you the most, and vote for them.  Easy, isn't it?

Well, no.  Both Likud and Machaneh Tzioni are arguing that you should vote for them, rather than their smaller natural allies, to ensure that they are the largest party in the knesset, and will therefore be given the opportunity to form the coalition.

Fortunately that canard is easy to debunk, as I have done before, but despite the incontrovertible evidence provided by real life experience as recent as Kadima's 28-27 "victory" over Likud in 2009, the media persists in maintaining this false narrative, so many people swallow it because of the Availability Cascade cognitive bias (i.e. the more you repeat a given statement, the more people tend to believe it is true).

But now I have another dilemma.  I fundamentally disagree with Eli Yishai's economic and social platform, and I find Baruch Marzel a little too extreme even for my tastes.  But I would prefer for these two fellas to be in the Knesset rather than a couple of extra left-wingers.  And here's the rub: according to the last polls released before the 7-day blackout on surveys before election day, Yachad is hovering on the edge of the electoral threshold.  If they make it over the required 3.25%, they will have at least 4 seats.  If they don't, those 4 seats will be divvied up proportionately among those who did make it.  Which means, assuming a roughly 50-50 split, that 2 of their seats will go to people I strongly disapprove of.

Under normal considerations, my single vote cannot be more than the tipping point for one Knesset seat to change hands (or bottoms).  In this case, however, my vote could constitute the tipping point for 4 whole seats!  So maybe I should refrain from voting for my first-choice party, and rather vote for a party that would otherwise be my fourth or fifth choice, just to help them get into the Knesset and strengthen the overall "right wing" bloc?  The argument is not without merit, even if it's not compelling.

But then... there's the law of unintended consequences.  For example, not so long ago everyone was calling for Bashar al-Assad to be deposed in Syria.  Now all of a sardine, everyone's gone quiet on that score.  What happened?   Islamic State, of course.  Who ever thought there could arise and even more vicious, cruel and despotic regime than Assad's?  Yet if he had fallen when the hounds were out for his blood, all the indications are that IS would have taken full control of Syria, as they have in Iraq where the West deposed another cruel and bloody dictator, and we would have had the richest, best equipped, most full-tilt nut-job Islamist terrorist organization in the world massing on our border.  Good thing we didn't get what we wanted, huh?

Similarly I could make the case that, Netanyahu's capacity for Churchillian oratory notwithstanding, perhaps the best thing for Israel is for him to lose power now, and Herzog to become prime minister?   Bear with me on this.  It's not too difficult to conjure up a scenario where Netanyahu would do a Sharon, and make a suicidal deal with the Palestinians.  So half the Likud would revolt -  big deal!  He would be able to pass the deal with the support of the Left and the Arab parties.  Herzog, on the other hand, has no such leeway, because as PM he would be battling everyone to the right of him, plus he would have a few security hawks in his own coalition who would need some serious persuasion.

Also, Netanyahu is right now the unchallenged leader of the Right.  He's unchallenged, because nobody can challenge him.  What, try depose a charismatic and powerful sitting prime minister from your own camp, who is received with wave after wave of standing ovations in Congress?  Obama didn't ever get that kind of reception, even when the Dems controlled Congress.  Moshe Feiglin challenged Netanyahu, and look how that worked out for him.

But if he were to lose, it would open up the playing field to other leadership contenders.  Herzog would maybe be able to hold together a coalition for two years, at the outside, and then we'll be back to new elections.  This would allow a new rising star to take over the leadership of the Right, perhaps someone more ideologically driven, with a fresh perspective and new momentum.  Like Feiglin, or Naftali Bennett, or who knows who else?  Maybe even Tzipi Hotovely?  It might be worth a couple years of watching Herzog trying to keep his government together, once the hate-Bibi glue has expired, and now all the conflicting demands of his coalition partners start playing off against each other.  Heck, the entertainment value of that might even be the payoff by itself!

I'm not trying to predict the future here or advocate a contrarian voting position; that's not the point.  All I'm saying is, there are so many different ways that things can play out, and trying to go Machiavellian on it is not guaranteed, or even highly probable, to lead to a better outcome; in fact, it could backfire seriously.

So I've made my decision: I will be a Zen voter, and simply vote for the party I feel best represents my views, and let the chips fall where they may.  And I respectfully submit that you should do the same.

It's election time - and I don't care!

For a person like me who is usually almost OCD about following the polls and election news, this is a completely new and liberating experience:  I have almost no interest in the daily reports about our upcoming elections.  I arrived at this happy place when I realized that it simply doesn't matter.  All the hype in the media about the day to day incremental polling trends, and what this politician says about that one, is irrelevant.

It's frankly a little embarrassing to see so many intelligent people making so much noise about whether the "Zionist Camp" or Likud will get more seats, as if that makes any difference.  Like, don't they remember what happened in 2009?  Kadima under Livni got one seat more than Likud under Netanyahu.  Does that mean they won?  No; Kadima got the most seats by cannibalizing votes from their natural coalition partners, Labor and Meretz.  So when it came time to form a coalition, Livni was stranded, and Netanyahu became Prime Minister again.  So too today: even if Yitzhak Herzog gets a couple seats more than Netanyahu, it won't make a shred of difference: the only thing that counts is how many total Knesset seats he will be able to command for a coalition.  And in those stakes, Netanyahu is king.  Between his natural coalition partners (Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu, Koolanu, Ha'Am Itanu) and the Haredi parties, their total poll numbers have consistently been hanging around the 70 mark, give or take a couple.  (Link to a great poll-of-polls analysis over time here, thanks to DG and ED.)  So barring some really major "black swan" event, I think we can pretty safely say that the large print of the day-after reports will probably read "Netanyahu re-elected Prime Minister".

The small print may be of slightly more interest, but not much.  The biggest swing factor will be whether Ha'Am Itanu makes it over the bar, but otherwise the trends are pretty much in a holding pattern.  A handful of seats may be swinging between various parties, but the overall picture is consistent: the government will once again be formed of a hodgepodge of medium and small parties.  They will thrash out a coalition agreement that nobody will be particularly happy with, and within a year or two, the government will once again fall due to internal bickering, and we'll be back at the polls.

Even if I'm wrong, and Herzog does manage to cobble together a majority of the Knesset to support a coalition under him, I don't really care.  His coalition would somehow have to include even more fractious partners, like Lapid with the Haredim, or Liberman with Meretz.  They wouldn't be able to do anything significant or dangerous, and the government wouldn't last long enough to give Livni even a day at the helm.

Netanyahu's proposed legislation to change the electoral system may or may not pass, but once again, it won't matter.  I know I'm pitting my intelligence against a guy who reportedly has a 180 IQ, but I simply cannot fathom how he thinks it will help to crown the leader of the largest party as Prime Minister automatically, even if he can't form a majority coalition.  Does it mean that the government will be able to pass laws even without a majority?  That's unthinkable; it means the Knesset might as well pack up its bags and go home, and you're effectively stuck with a dictatorship for 4 years.  But if you do need a majority to pass laws, then how will it help if the nominal Prime Minister cannot command that majority?  If anyone can educate me as to what subtle point I am missing, I'll be most grateful, but right now this idea looks pretty asinine.

So the cycle will repeat itself, returning to elections every couple of years that produce the identical outcome as the time before, with minor power shifts and flavor-of-the-month "centrist" parties rising and falling, until maybe someone significant decides to pursue the idea of switching to district representation, an event for which I have faint hope, for reasons I have explained before.

Perhaps my most compelling reason for getting excited about elections in the past was because each time was an opportunity for Moshe Feiglin to get elected.  He did, and performed superbly - and then he got ousted by the Likud and is not running in these elections.  So I really do have no horse in this race.  I haven't decided who I'll vote for, and when I do, I probably won't feel any need to advertise or proselytize, because it won't make any difference overall.  I do hope Feiglin will return to the scene with credible force next time around, because I think he's the one person who really has potential to shake up the system.

But until then, I'm watching the elections as a movie-goer watches an entertaining historical film.  Without any emotional involvement, without any need to trash-talk anyone, relaxed, and happy!

My Election Challenge

A few days ago a friend of mine remarked to me how much he hates elections.  "We're going to have three solid months of sin'as chinam now," he lamented.  I have been reflecting on his words, and thinking, does it really have to be this way?

A few months ago, the whole of Israel was united as one for 18 days, while we searched and prayed for Eyal, Gilad and Naftali.  כאיש אחד בלב אחד - like one person with one heart.  It didn't matter if you were secular, Dati Leumi or Charedi, left-wing or right-wing.  And we were all broken hearted together when the terrible news became known.

Why should it be that we can only be united when we are faced with crisis and tragedy?  Why should we shatter that unity just because we are choosing a new government?

Think positive - Talk positive - Be positive

Let's fantasize for a few minutes.  Imagine that for the next three months of electoral campaigning, all parties and candidates would present themselves with compelling and positive arguments why you should vote for them, without demonizing, excoriating, ridiculing, lambasting or even criticizing their competitors.  Imagine complete mutual respect between all political parties, and everyone being particular to disagree about issues, and never descending to ad hominem attacks, let alone smearing entire communities.  Imagine if all of us armchair political commentators, on blogs, Facebook and talkbacks, would hold ourselves to this standard of always writing respectfully and gracefully, really trying to understand the other person.  And where we must disagree, then agree to disagree - and yet always treat the other as befits a tzelem Elokim, someone created in the image of God.

את חטאי אני מזכיר היום; I confess I have been guilty of publicly besmirching political figures in the past.  I therefore wish to apologize in the same forum for my past transgressions.  I am sorry for speaking loshon hora and adding fuel to the fire of baseless hatred.  And I undertake to change my ways.  Any time I feel the need to post something, I will keep my contributions as much as possible to the positive presentation of good ideas, and if I feel the need to criticize something, I will weigh up if it is really necessary and beneficial to air my views in public, and if it is, I will confine myself only to arguing about the issues, and never attacking the person.

I hope you will join me in this.  The satan is already rubbing his proverbial hands in glee, in anticipation of all the division and hatred that usually accompanies election season.  For every person who is able to overcome their nature and restrain themselves from saying or writing things that will increase machlokes, but rather relates to people with whom they disagree with honor and respect, we will surely increase the merits of Am Yisrael.  And who knows?  Maybe our reward will be a that we get a stable, functional government whose leaders and ministers will likewise care for the needs of all sectors of the population.  That idea sounds almost like Messianic times, doesn't it?

The Kachlon Conspiracy

Rafi asks a great question:

If Moshe Kachlon is so smart and talented, and I think he probably is, along with charismatic and dynamic with leadership abilities, why is he starting a new party?
I mean, doesn't he see how all these new parties were basically one-time wonders and then faded into obscurity? even the most successful of them all, Kadima, barely made it through two elections.. why does he think his party will be any different? He should have stayed with the Likud.
The worst part of it is that a guy like Kachlon, and the big names who I am sure will be on his list, will soon fade into obscurity just like those all before him, and that would be such a loss to the political system.

I was originally going to answer in the comments on his blog, but the more I thought about it, the more I figure the answer deserves a blog entry of its own.

My answer is not that Moshe Kachlon isn't smart or talented.  It's that Binyamin Netanyahu is extremely smart (he reportedly has an IQ of 180), and knows how to plan for the future.

First up, let's rewind a few years to before the previous elections, and put ourselves into the shoes of a genius-intelligence Prime Minister.  You look at the polls and conclude that you're going to sort-of win the coming elections, but be stuck with yet another scrappy coalition.  Every election it's the same thing: some new one-hit-wonder party claims to represent the disaffected "center", "middle class", or whatever, and walks off with a chunk of swing seats that is big enough to make or break a coalition.  This time it's Yair Lapid.  Last time it was Olmert with Kadima.  Before him was Tommy Lapid and Shinui.  And all of them come with their demands that you simply cannot ignore when drawing up your coalition agreement.  Wouldn't it be nice if for once, just once, the new kid on the block turned out to be someone who is ideologically aligned with you, and will actually play nicely once he's in government?

Hmm... thinks... what if, what if... what if I had to prepare already now for the election after this one?  I'll have to make do with a coalition with Lapid this time around... but why not prepare the ground already for next time, and have someone friendly lined up, ready to take the swing votes?  But who?  Someone popular, someone whom I can trust... wait!  What about... Moshe Kachlon?  We'll have him resign gracefully from politics for the time being... make noises about how we regret his decision and hope he'll reconsider... and then next election, he can start his own party, ride on the his popularity that we'll cryogenically freeze now... and he can take the regular 15-20 seats reserved for the flavor-of-the-season "centrist" party... and then yesh lanu esek!  No more need to lean on whiny, treacherous coalition partners... at last we will have a stable government!

So what do you think of this benign conspiracy theory?  Here are some backup facts: Moshe Kachlon is a stalwart Likudnik, whose economic and social views to date have been very much in line with Netanyahu's.  He's not your typical "centrist"; in fact, he was one of the 13 Likud loyalists who voted against the Disengagement.

If I'm right, Kachlon will be given a very senior position in the coming coalition.  And as to the point Rafi raised that he will disappear into obscurity at the next elections - that's only if he doesn't merge his party into the Likud, and grab a spot at the top there.

But then what will be with the next election?  Who will grab the "center" vote if Moshe Kachlon is tainted by his return to the Likud?

Why, Gidon Saar, of course...

I go viral!

2021 Update: see here

I have a confession to make: for years, it's been one of my private ambitions to start a viral Internet hoax.  I am fascinated by what makes people forward/like/share information that is obviously fake.  I haven't really been trying that hard, but I have made some lame attempts at an over-the-top virus warning, and created a phony Facebook competition to win a million dollars that attracted absolutely zero interest.

And then, a few days ago, in a moment of frustration at Israel's lame leadership, I penned the speech I wish we could hear from our Prime Minister ending it with the line, "... and then I awoke, and it was all a dream", and shared it on Facebook.

Nothing much came of that, or so I thought.  A few people commented on the article, and there were one or two shares.  And that was it.

Until a few days later, when someone forwarded to me the entire text of my speech, minus the last line.  In other words, they believed this was a real speech, and had sent it to me because they thought I would take heart from it.

I did.  I so did!  At first, I sat staring at the screen, open mouthed, then as I checked the "forwarded" thread to see how many degrees of forwarding this mail had gone through, I broke into a huge smile, a laugh, and I actually started jumping for joy.  Really.

I had done it!  Without even trying!  My fictional prose - my very own! - had gone viral as a chain email hoax!

To whoever took the trouble to copy and paste my text into email without attribution: I forgive you.  And I love you.  With rockets flying in all directions around my ears, you have made my month.  Thank you.

Breaking News: Netanyahu's speech to Hamas

2021 Update: see here

Breaking news: Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu just made the following speech in front of the Knesset:

To Ismail Haniya, and the leaders and operatives of Hamas:

We, the people of Israel, owe you a huge debt of gratitude.  You have succeeded where we have failed.  Because never before, in the history of the modern State of Israel, has the Jewish people been so united, like one person with one heart.  You stole three of our most precious children, and slaughtered them in cold blood.  But before we could discover the horrible truth, we had 18 days of pain and anxiety while we searched for them, during which our nation united as never before, in prayer, in hopes, in mutual support.

And now, as you continue to launch deadly missiles indiscriminately, intended to maim and murder as many civilians as possible, while you take cowardly refuge behind your own civilians - you continue to inspire us to hold strongly onto our newly discovered unity.  Whatever disputes we Jews may have with each other, we now know that we have one common goal: we will defeat you.

But we are offering you now one last chance.  Within 24 hours, all rocket fire - and I mean all rocket fire - will cease.  Completely.  Forever.

I give you formal notice that our tanks are massed at the Gaza border, with artillery and air support at the ready.  We have already dropped leaflets over the northern parts of the Gaza strip, warning civilians of our impending arrival, and that they should evacuate southward, forthwith.  If you fail to meet our ultimatum, we are coming in, and, with God's help, this time we will not leave.  Every centimeter of land that we conquer will be annexed to Israel, so that there will never be another attack launched at our civilians from there.

Even so, we will continue to keep the door open to allow you to surrender gracefully.  The moment you announce that you are laying down arms, we will halt our advance, and there we will draw our new borders.  If you continue to attack our citizens, we will continue to roll southwards, driving you out of territory that you will never again contaminate with your evil presence.

It pains me deeply that your civilians will be made homeless.  But we did not choose this war; you did.  And if our choice is between allowing our citizens to be targeted mercilessly by your genocidal savagery, versus turning your civilians into refugees, I regret that we must choose the latter.  If only you loved your people as much as you hate ours, this war would never have happened.

To the rest of the world: Israel has tired of your ceaseless chidings that we should "show restraint".  When you have your entire population under constant missile fire from an implacable enemy whose stated goal is the of murder every man, woman and child in your land, then you may come and talk to us about "restraint".  Until then, we respectfully suggest that you keep your double standards to yourselves.  This time, Hamas has gone too far, and we will do whatever we have to in order to protect our population.

Hamas, once again, I thank you for bringing our people together with such clarity of mind and unity of purpose.  The people of Israel do not fear the long road ahead.  Am Yisrael Chai.


... and then I awoke, and it was all a dream...

True story: The Gabbai Tzedaka and the Loan Shark

This is a remarkable true story, which I have shared at many a shabbos table and other forums over the past year or so.  Based on the reactions I've had, I decided to put it on my blog, so that it can be shared by the world at large, rather than being restricted to those social gatherings with low enough standards to both admit me and grant me speaking time.

Chabad in Pahar Ganj, Delhi

On one of my business trips to Delhi, India, around a year ago, I was required to stay over for shabbos, where I was most grateful to be able to take advantage of the hospitality of the local Chabad.  There were around 50 guests at shabbos supper, almost exclusively Israeli post-army backpackers.  By my reckoning there were only maybe 2 or 3 other people over the age of 25.  One of those was AY, a thoughtful, softly-spoken fellow of about 50.  I asked him if he was also here on business, and he said no, he's just here to clear his head and have some time off.

Later that evening AY was invited to give a d'var Torah.  This is the story he told (in Hebrew), to which I hope I have done justice in English here, both factual and literary.

I live in the Golan Heights.  Among other things I do, I serve the community as a gabbai tzedaka (one who collects and distributes funds for the needy).  We have a system in the Golan: most of the time each community looks after its own, but sometimes there's a case of extreme need, when all the communities will band together in order to help someone.

A few weeks ago, I got called into one such emergency meeting of all the Golan community gabbaei tzedaka.  There was a fellow - we'll call him Reuven - who had gotten into some hard times.  Having exhausted his credit line at the bank, he went and borrowed on the black market, from a loan shark by the name of Mordechai G.  Borrowing on the black market is a pretty poor situation to be in, because not only do they charge horrifying interest rates, tens of times higher than the banks, but if you don't pay them back, let's just say that they don't bother seeking court judgments against you.  Anyway, Reuven had borrowed a large amount of money for a business deal that went sour.  When he could not pay back what he owed, he started finding his car tires slashed and his house windows broken - but he refused to beg for charity... until one day the loan shark's goons intercepted his kids on the way home from school and roughed them up.  At this point he came for help, by which stage his debt had compounded to 1.5 million shekels.

Now, that is a pretty staggering amount.  We did our best, and made an emergency appeal throughout the Golan communities.  People really did dig deep.  I'm proud to say that within a matter of days we had raised a quarter of a million shekels, which is truly a remarkable achievement.  But still, only one sixth of the required amount.  We gabbaim met again, and decided that our only hope was to request a meeting with the loan shark, Mordechai G. himself.  So it was that one morning we gathered together a respectable delegation of 5 people, including some senior community Rabbonim and myself, and drove down to a hotel in Tverya, where Mordechai G. had agreed to meet us.

When we entered, it was like a scene from a bad gangster movie.  Mordechai G., a hefty man with a most intimidating glare, was sitting on a couch behind a coffee table, with two goons standing behind, flanking him with their arms folded.  I would have laughed if their presence hadn't been so terrifying.  He motioned for us to sit.  After we did so, the senior Rav spoke up:

"Thank you for agreeing to meet with us.  As you know, we're here about the matter of Reuven and the 1.5 million shekels he owes you... we have done our best, and the community has really pulled together for him... we have managed to raise 250,000 shekels to cover his debts.  We hope that you can understand the difficulty of repaying such a large amount, and perhaps, out of the goodness of your heart, you might consider easing his terms, or maybe-"

And suddenly, in the middle of the Rav's sentence, Mordechai G. sprang to his feet, flipped the table upside down and smashed it on the floor.

"I WANT THE MONEY!" he snarled. 

We were all frozen.  Nobody knew what to do or say.  And then, before I knew what I was doing, I spoke up.

"OK, I'll get you your money."

He looked at me angrily.  "What are you talking about?  Just a minute ago you told me you didn't have the money!  Now you say you do!  Don't mess me around!"

"Come and talk to me privately," I said.  "If you like what I've got to say, then great.  And if not, you're no worse off than you are now."

He contemplated this suspiciously for a few seconds, then nodded agreement, and started leading me towards an adjoining room.  I honestly had absolutely no idea what I was going to say; all I could do in those 15 seconds as we were walking was daven that Hashem would put some idea into my head and the right words in my mouth.

So we got into the next room and closed the door.  He turned to scowl at me, his thumbs tucked into his belt.  "Nu?"

Baruch Hashem, I found something to say.  "Firstly, I want you to understand that the five of us who came here today, did not come here because we're making any money on this deal.  On the contrary, it's costing us all in time and resources.  We're all working men and we have plenty of other responsibilities.  But we decided to spend our morning coming to meet you.  Why?  Because it's a mitzvah - a mitzvah of pidyon shevuyim (redeeming a hostage) - and for a mitzvah like this, we believe we will receive an eternal reward in the Next World that is worth infinitely more than any money in this world.  So here's the deal I'm offering you: firstly, we'll give you all the money we brought with us: 250,000 shekels.  Then, on top of that, I can't make any offers on behalf of my companions, but I'll offer you my own reward in the Next World for the fulfillment of this mitzva, if you will forgive the rest of the debt."

Mordechai G. was now looking at me as if I had just climbed out of an alien space ship.  He stood there in silence for a few seconds, and I was starting to wonder if he was sizing up how he was going to dispose of my body.  Then, suddenly his face relaxed, he pulled his right hand out of his belt and stuck it out at me.

"It's a deal," he said, grasping my hand.  I was in total shock as we shook.  "But -" he added, gripping my hand more firmly, and pointing his left index finger threateningly at me, "you may never tell anyone else about our deal.  Because if word gets out that Mordechai G. forgave a loan, my business is finished."

"You have my word," I promised.  And so we left the room and announced to all present that the debt had been settled, and there would be no further need of discussion.  My companions were gobsmacked.  All the way home they pressed me, and all I could tell them was that I could not tell them.  And so I thought that forever I would carry this secret around in my heart, never able to tell anyone.

The next day, I again had cause to drive down to the Kinneret.  Driving along the road that skirts the shores of the lake, I saw up ahead the flashing lights of a number of emergency vehicles stopped on the side.  I pulled over to see if there was anything I could do to help.  There was a young policeman, very agitated, who told me what had just happened.

He had been doing routine checks on passing cars, pulling them over, checking their licenses, etc.  He pulled over one car, in which the driver - the only occupant - was not wearing his seat belt.  "I'm sorry, sir, but that's a 400 shekel fine for not wearing your seatbelt."  The driver flapped his hand at him contemptuously.  "Pah!  So give me four.  I don't care; that kind of money is nothing to me.  I am Mordechai G., and I drive without a seatbelt."  So the policeman gave him a ticket, which he tossed onto the passenger seat; so doing, he slammed the car back into gear, flattened his foot on the accelerator, took off like a rocket... lost control of the car and slammed into a nearby tree.  He was declared dead by the paramedics on the scene.

So, now that Mordechai G. is no more, I am released from my promise, and this is why I am telling you this story today.  I still don't know what to make of it; there is so much to think about, and I will leave the interpretation to you. 

I've had a year to think about it, and I've taken a few messages from AY's story.  What do you think?

Two Beit Shemeshes, not on speaking terms

Municipal elections are less than a week away.  For me, they can't be over soon enough.

There have not been, to the best of my knowledge, any truly scientific polls to indicate who will be crowned the Mayor of Beit Shemesh come next Wednesday.  All we know is, it's close.  And we know one other thing: whoever wins Tuesday's election, around half of the city will be jubilant and throwing street parties, and the other half utterly dejected, bitter and resentful.

The thing that has characterized this election campaign the most has been the polarization, the rift in our community, the anger, the hatred, even violence.  From both sides.  And I say that not just to seem even-handed - I've seen and heard people arguing for and against both Eli Cohen and Moshe Abutbul, with fury and venom like I have never seen in them before.  Laws of loshon hora, rechilus, motzi shem ra, nezikin - even Shemiras Shabbos - out the window!   And there is almost nobody in the "undecided" category.  I've never seen anything like this before: nearly everyone I know is vociferously and unswervingly committed to their candidate.  I have not yet had a conversation with anyone who was wavering between the two!  I've witnessed way too many heated exchanges between the two camps, and not one case of anyone changing their mind.  Perhaps the undecideds are afraid to let themselves be known, lest they be set upon by one or the other faction... but I don't know, because they're not saying, and I don't even know if they exist.

This schism in our town truly breaks my heart.  In the end, we're all going to carry on with our lives, and we're going to have to live with our friends and neighbors who voted for the other guy.

Casting my mind back 5 years ago to the previous election, it wasn't like this.  Sure, there was plenty of electoral tension, but it wasn't about Haredim versus Everybody Else.  Moshe Abutbul had plenty backing from secular and traditional parties and communities, which is why he won the election.  And Shalom Lerner was backed by the faction of UTJ that is now the "Koach" party.  When Abutbul won, sure Lerner's supporters were upset, but not so grievously that they contemplated moving out of the city.

What happened?  How is it that in the space of 5 years, our city has fractured neatly down the line: Haredim (with the notable exception of the Tov party) are solidly behind Abutbul, while everyone else is voting Cohen?  It's an important question to ask, because this in itself is probably the most burning issue concerning Beit Shemesh: the relationship between the various sectors of the population.

I was having a discussion recently with an Abutbul supporter, who was earnestly rattling off an impressive list of the achievements over the last 5 years, that benefited everyone, not just Haredim, and he was getting immensely frustrated that people just refused to see the truth of the situation.  I guess he didn't learn Stephen Covey's 5th Habit: Seek to understand, then to be understood.  Did you every ask yourself why, despite everything you've said, the city has split into two practically warring factions?  If you're going to claim that the opening of a bowling alley (a private business initiative) is to the credit of the mayor, then you're also going to have to "credit" the mayor with bringing the relationships between Haredim and Everyone Else to the nadir they are at now: where anti-Cohen ads use Holocaust imagery (implicitly calling Cohen a Nazi), and non-Haredim are openly talking about leaving the city if Abutbul is re-elected.

He answered me: it's just fear.  I wholeheartedly agree.  And I think the same is true for the other side.  The shrill tenor of this whole campaign is because both sides are driven by a wild, visceral fear that the other guy might win and destroy everything for "us" (whoever "we" might be).  But it's not a full equivalence.  The Haredi camp is afraid of Cohen, because he's unknown, is alleged to have connections with the Great Satan (Yair Lapid) and the Little Satan (Naftali Bennett), and he's threatening the benign reign of their patron Moshe Abutbul.  The non-Haredi camp is afraid of Abutbul, because he's known, and whatever explanation you may proffer, they have seen him in action for the past 5 years, and they emphatically do not want a repeat performance.  Do you really want to understand why every non-Haredi party, plus Tov, quit the coalition?  Ask them!  Do you really want to understand why almost every non-Haredi voter who voted Abutbul 5 years ago, is now dreading the prospect that he might be re-elected?  Ask them!

I am certain that Moshe Abutbul is a very good man, and he is totally dedicated to doing the best he can.  But whether intentionally or not, his tenure as mayor has been exceptionally divisive, and bred extremism and hatred between different sectors of the Jewish people.  The results are undeniable: we are a city of two factions, not on speaking terms - and that is the greatest tragedy imaginable.  The fact that this happened on his watch is a gross failure, an offence warranting dismissal.  However much he may have done on paper, whatever endorsements he may bring, whoever tells me "Daas Torah", and however much of a good, sweet and kind person he may be, I cannot vote for Moshe Abutbul.

Many of my friends and neighbors have come to me gushing with effusive praise for Eli Cohen.  He sounds like a good guy, though his marketing is appalling.  I wish I could share their enthusiasm for him, but I don't.  But I will give him my vote on Tuesday, because the only thing I am sure of is that Beit Shemesh needs a new mayor, just to give us some chance of healing.

Perhaps, like me, you are disillusioned and distressed by the tsunami of sin'as chinam that has engulfed our beautiful city, and know that it cannot be allowed to continue in this path - but for whatever reason you cannot bring yourself to vote for Eli Cohen.  I can understand that.  But then, please, don't actively lend a hand to deepening the rift in our society.  Don't vote.  Or vote with a "white slip".  Make that your protest.

And even if you do vote for Abutbul, I still love you, and I'll still be your loyal friend and neighbor.

Why I'm voting Likud for city council

First up, before I even get into tachlis, I'm sure there are a bunch of people who read the title of this post and thought, "Why aren't you voting for Eli Cohen?"  For the edification of you newcomers to Israeli municipal elections, you have two votes: one is a yellow slip for mayor (Eli Cohen vs Moshe Abutbul), and one is a white slip where you vote for a party list.  Unfortunately we still don't have any directly elected ward councillors; you vote for a party and the seats on city council are divvied up according to our rather complex system of proportional representation.  So yes, it's a complete no-brainer to vote Eli Cohen for mayor, and I'm not even going to address that angle.  Rather, I'm going to tell you why I'm voting Likud (מחל) for city council.

When I joined Likud, I did so for a national agenda, in order to support Moshe Feiglin. Incidentally, thanks to the efforts of thousands of others like me, Moshe is now a member of Knesset, and doing way better than I ever expected, and the Likud of today is not the spineless Likud that bowed to Ariel Sharon's disastrous disengagement.  But that's beside the point.  My point is, that I never saw the Likud as being that important on a local government level; I thought it much more useful to have representatives on council whom I could trust, who were my neighbors and who would look out for me and my community's interests.  And who were all the Likud representatives on council, anyway?  Predominantly traditional Moroccans from Old Beit Shemesh, with not a heckuva lot in common with me, culturally speaking.  So in the past municipal elections I gave my vote to Anglo parties, so that there would at least be someone on the council representing my culture and values.

This year, however, my perspective has completely changed.  Since becoming a member of the local Likud branch council, I've come to know a lot of these old-time Likudnikim.  To be sure, there's still a big cultural gap between us, e.g. I do often need to ask them kindly not to smoke while we're having our meetings.  But the fact is, they are sincerely and completely dedicated to serving the greater community of Beit Shemesh.  Take a look at this Facebook page for a list of the Likud's achievements over the past 5 years.  And then consider that during that time, the Likud was in the Opposition.  That means it wasn't even their job to be working on these things - but they did it anyway.  And if you ask them why they did all this stuff if they weren't in the coalition, they will look at you as if you just suggested eating falafel with a knife and fork.  That's just what you do for your city!

And it's not for the glory, either.  Everything they did over the past 5 years was done on the quiet.  When Likud Knesset candidate Keti Shitrit mentioned to a group of us Likud Anglos a couple of days ago that the budget for the expansion of Road 38 was secured by Shalom Edri (the local Likud chairman), we expressed surprise, seeing as Mayor Abutbul has claimed that as one of his achievements.  "Mah pitom!  We have a letter from [Minister of Transportation] Yisrael Katz to prove that it was Shalom who convinced him to spare Road 38 from the budget cuts!"  But they never publicized it before.  They never thought to - because they didn't do it for the publicity.  So we Anglos took that letter and gave it the exposure it deserves.

OK, so all I've proved so far is that the Likudnikim are really good people who do a lot of work for the community.  But still, why vote for them when there are so many other really good people running for council - Anglos, people like us?

I agree that many of the other party lists are filled to the brim with amazing people, some of whom are good personal friends of mine.  I wish them every success, I hope they make it to council, and I am convinced that they will serve the community to the very best of their ability.

But the key phrase here is: to the very best of their ability.  If you peruse the Likud's list of achievements, you will notice that the majority of them were achieved because they had the ear of the relevant minister in the national government.  If you have a problem, and you call your friendly local councillor Shmerel from the Anglos Like Me Party, he will certainly listen and do his level best to help out.  He will bang on whatever doors he can in the municipality and try to escalate your issue to anyone who can help out.  But if your problem is, for example, that the road outside your house resembles a moonscape, and the mayor is crying about budget cuts beyond his control, then who does councillor Shmerel call?  He doesn't have the cellphone number of the Minister of Transportation - and even if he did, the Minister wouldn't recognize the caller ID and would let it go to voicemail.  Your call is very important, please leave a message, along with the 327 other people who left me messages in the past 24 hours.  Oh well, I did my hishtadlus...

When Shalom Edri or Moshe Shitrit picks up the phone to any given Likud minister, they answer within three rings.  That's why we have Road 10 today, that's why Route 38 is going to be expanded, and that's why the Orot Girls' School held strong against the extremists and their appeasers.  And why do the ministers care about some activist in some little backwater town?  Because Beit Shemesh is traditionally a Likud stronghold, and the ministers know they have to keep their support base happy.  The stronger the Likud representation is in Beit Shemesh, the greater our importance in the eyes of the Likud-led national government.

I won't say that voting Likud will give you a warm fuzzy feeling - but it's the smart vote if you're looking out for the overall good of Beit Shemesh.

So, that's why I'm voting מחל - Likud on October 22.  I hope you'll consider it, too.

The "Nice Guy" Trap

A week or two ago, I posted a comment on Facebook, tangentially hinting at my disapproval of the concept of State-recognized homosexual marriages.  And wow, did I get it in the neck from my friends!  I was not too surprised by the accusations of insensitivity and bigotry from my secular friends; after all, once you have removed God from the picture, there is no reason on Man’s earth why two consenting adults shouldn’t do whatever the heck they want together, and if the majority of the society they’re in feels it’s OK, then why not?  For that matter, consensual wife-swapping shouldn’t be a problem, either.  And why stop at adults?  Who says children who have reached puberty can’t decide for themselves what to do with their bodies?  And while we’re going down this route, let’s say some nutter gets hooked up with a consenting chimpanzee, and feels it’s a meaningful relationship, why should anyone else intrude?  It’s not as if it’s infringing on anyone else’s rights, is it?  Nothing to discuss here.

What perplexed me more about the reactions was the fact that so many of my religiously observant friends also jumped down my throat, giving me technical arguments like, “There’s no Torah prohibition against two men living together, so what’s the problem?” or “Keeping homosexuality illegal is not going to decrease the amount of homosexuality in the world.”  And there’s me left shaking my head.  Yes, these arguments may be technically accurate.  But for Heaven’s sake – look at the big picture!  Do these people, who profess to believe in God and the laws of the Torah, actually want our society to be moving in a direction of ever-greater licentiousness and open denigration and mockery of the moral codes that they supposedly support?  What is it that drives them to criticize me for simply stating a position that is clearly and unequivocally advocated by the Torah?

Soon after that, I was drawn into argument with a dear friend of mine who is passionately pro-Israel and very active in Israel advocacy on the Internet – yet he found it necessary to condemn the Israeli government publicly for not declaring that “price tag” vandalism should be classified as terrorism.  I took him to task on that, asking him if he really felt that writing obnoxious and threatening graffiti, terrible though that is, is morally equivalent to blowing up a bus.  We got into plenty of further discussion, but he would not climb down, and to my knowledge, his public position is still unchanged.

This got me thinking even more.  What other examples can I think of, of people taking public positions that run contrary to their stated ideology?  It didn’t take me long to draw up a short list:

• People who deeply care about Israel’s future, advocating unilateral surrender of Israeli territory to a sworn enemy that has never once given any indication that it will make peace with us – and this, “for the sake of Israel’s long-term security”.  Come again?
• People who are very concerned about security and the threat of global terrorism, yet willfully refuse to identify the perpetrators or their ideology.  (Hint: begins with “I”, ends with “-slam”.)  Result: ridiculous security checks at airports that treat a 69-year old granny with the same level of suspicion as a 23 year old Middle Eastern male wearing a bulky trenchcoat in midsummer.
• People who profess a strong belief in liberalism and human rights, and will campaign vociferously for more and more social freedoms, but who are strangely silent when in their own European hometowns, even non-Muslim women feel much safer to go outside wearing headscarves.
• The reluctance of the Republican Party in the USA to put forward a presidential candidate with clear and unequivocal socially conservative positions (e.g. on gay marriage, abortion), despite the conservative views of their membership.

What is it that makes people act this self-denigrating way?

On reflection, I identified exactly the same tendency in myself.  As one who was raised in a liberal, traditional Jewish home, I still have a strong connection with the circles in which I grew up, both family and friends, and I have a deep seated desire to be liked, and not to appear in the eyes of that liberal society as a knuckle-draggin’, bible-thumpin’, goggle-eyed retrograde wacko.  I have caught myself many times, in conversations with my less religious friends and family, actively introducing topics of Jewish religious extremists, just so that I can make it clear that I’m not one of them – or equivocating about some not-so politically correct Jewish laws, trying to find some sugar-coating to make them more palatable.  Bottom line, it’s insecurity in my own position.  And this insecurity, this desire to seem like a nice guy, has led me to compromise my own integrity, such as speaking loshon hora or denigrating Jewish laws and traditions.

What's more, being ingratiating gains nothing in terms of my own goals.  When I am cringing and apologetic for my views, I project that insecurity clearly, so whoever sees it realizes that I am pliable and unconvincing.  In real terms that may mean I find myself pushed into areas of compromising my own religious observances.  It means that Israel's political concessions are pocketed, unreciprocated, and the demands for further surrenders are simply scaled up.  When a pro-Zionist is quoted as criticizing the Israeli government, the anti-Zionists will eagerly quote him to prove that "Even your own supporters think you're immoral."  And so on.

We'd love to believe otherwise, that we humans really are all friends with just a few differences between us, so we compromise in the expectation that our concessions will be appreciated and reciprocated by our "colleagues".  But the cold, hard truth is that this world is full of ideological battles.  Conservatism vs liberalism.  Socialism vs capitalism.  Religion vs secularism.  Religion vs other religion.  Nationalism vs universalism.  Statism vs libertarianism.  Moderation vs extremism.  Etcetera.  When you're in one of these battles, a gifted concession is not seen by the other side as a sign of good faith; it's a sign of insecurity and weak resolve.  If your cause means something to you, then stand up for it proudly and don't give an inch, unless it's in the framework of an explicit quid-pro-quo with your ideological adversary!  If you don't believe in it strongly enough, be prepared to lose it.  As Rav Noach Weinberg said: "If you have nothing you would die for, then you have nothing to live for." (HT to ER for providing the source)

Perhaps that’s the lesson of Pinchas: A respected prince of the Jewish people – no less than Zimri ben Salu! – gets up and publicly shows off the Midianite girl that he’s about to take back into his tent.  Some people are cheering, others are stunned, and some are sitting around crying helplessly.  Only Pinchas, outraged as he is, has the presence of mind to understand that this behavior has crossed all red lines; he takes radical and courageous action, and consequently merits God’s “Covenant of Peace”.  Wow, how paradoxical.  Here’s a guy who gets up and impales two people on one spear – seemingly a brutally violent act – and the Torah credits him with bringing peace! 

Incidentally, the law that Pinchas was relying on – קנאים פוגעים בו – delimits that only one who is genuinely a “kannai”/zealot, whose motivations are 100% pure, could do such a thing.  Not something for insecure wimps like me.

But perhaps we could all use a little more Pinchas-type backbone in our lives, whatever our belief systems.  I don’t mean aggression, or being specifically not nice; I’m talking about an assertiveness that allows us to be perfectly civil and respectful, while maintaining our own integrity.  For example, with all respect to my gay friends and family (and I have plenty), I love them all dearly, but I am not going to condone their lifestyle just because liberal society says I must.  Libertarian that I am, I am not going to intrude on their private lives, as long as they keep them private.  With Shabbat observance, I have generally come to a fair status quo with my non-observant friends and family; I don’t make an issue of them violating Shabbos, and they don’t make it difficult for me to keep Shabbos.  In the same way, I won’t make an issue of anyone’s sexual orientation if they don’t.  Do not demand changes in the status quo such that I must start paying extra taxes to compensate for any benefits that might become due to “married” gay couples; I will oppose it.  Do not expect me to compromise my core beliefs by supporting any new legislation that denigrates the family unit and ultimately the moral fabric of society. 

I hope Mr Netanyahu is reading this, too.  Mr Prime Minister, please, pretty please, could you stop with this insanity of pandering to the world’s expectations that we commit national suicide by carving a chunk out of our heartland to hand over to our enemies?  Stop being so insecure!  Stop trying to be nice!  Take a leaf out of David ben Gurion’s book: stand up in front of the United Nations, wave a Bible at them and tell them that’s where they’ll find our title deeds to the land.  You’re not going to get peace by suing for peace.  You’ll only get peace by being a Pinchas.

So that’s what I take out of last week’s parsha.  Hereafter I resolve to be true to my core values, and not squirm out of taking an assertive stand, even if it is unpopular.  I hope I’ve inspired you to do the same.