Smart voting

Now that all the votes are in, let me present you with some telling statistics.  Take a look at where the so-called "right wing bloc" cast their votes.

66,775 people voted for Otzma LeYisrael.  They failed to pass the 2% threshold, and will not even have one seat in the 19th Knesset.

345,985 people voted for Bayit Yehudi, giving them 12 seats.

331,871 people voted for Shas and 195,893 for UTJ (Gimmel).

885,054 people voted Likud-Beiteinu, giving them 31 seats and making them the largest single party, which is the only reason why the leader of the Likud right now is the presumed Prime Minister-elect.

In the Likud primaries prior to the elections, the highest ranked candidate got 47,777 votes, while the last person to make it into this Knesset got 21,843.  And in the primaries for leadership of the Likud a year ago, Binyamin Netanyahu defeated Moshe Feiglin by about 30,000 votes, according to the doctored official results (and I know first hand that the results were fixed); his actual margin of victory was probably closer to 20,000.

So, assuming you're someone who would like to see a God-fearing Jew leading the Jewish state - where do you get the most bang for your buck - or vote?  Be one of the 66,775 people who flushed their votes down the "Netz" toilet?  One of 345,985 people who might, for their trouble, earn one or two peripheral ministries? Or one of 30,000 people who, had they been Likud members, could have made Feiglin the Prime Minister today?

This truth applies no matter what your political views (assuming you're not more naturally at home with the Left - in which case, you should join Labor).  Let's say you're Haredi and want to make sure that men are free to continue studying Torah and not be drafted.  At this writing, coalition negotiations are still in progress.  As things stand now, Shas and UTJ's combined 18 seats won't be worth a ki hu zeh if they can't climb down from their trees and come to some sort of compromise with Yesh Atid about "shivyon b'netel"; Netanyahu and Lapid will simply form a government without them, and all these hugely significant issues will be decided for them.  If you want to make a difference, you should be signing up yourself, your friends and your Rabbis for the Likud.  Get Haredim into the party structures and onto the Knesset list for the 20th Knesset.  Over half a million people voted for Haredi parties in this election.  If 10% of those people had joined the Likud, you could have had several Haredi MKs lodged into the governing party, and it would have been impossible to make any changes to the status quo without your participation.  Chaval al hazman.

If you really want to make a difference to the governance of Israel, then vote smart.  It costs 64 shekels a year for one person, 96 NIS for a couple.  

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Post-election game theory

The day after elections is always the most fun.  That's when all the amateur pundits get to speculate about who will make up the next coalition.  I did that after the 2009 elections, and if I may say so myself, I thought I did pretty well.  Here's a list of the things I called right:

1. About Labor: "Ehud Barak has stated that he's expecting to be in the opposition, but I don't think he'd say no to any opportunity to be part of anyone's coalition... if he could hang on to a ministry - any ministry - by signing up for a Likud coalition, I don't think Netanyahu's diplomatic or economic agenda would faze him much. He might have more of a problem convincing his fellow MKs to come along for the ride..."  And so it was.  Barak surprised everyone else by leading Labor into a coalition with Likud, but halfway through the term, Labor split in half.
2. About Kadima: "Kadima is not equipped to be an opposition party, and my prediction is that if they are not at least part of this government, they will be destroyed in the next election by the comeback of the more ideologically motivated Labor and Meretz."  OK, according to the provisional results, they hung on to existence by their fingernails, with 2 seats.  And the votes from the army might yet push them off the edge.  But still... pretty much spot on.
3. Livni would lose out in the coalition negotiations game to Netanyahu, mostly owing to her having burned her bridges with Shas.

So, having established my credentials from past performance, I now present my analysis of the first 2013 Knesset elections.  (It's entirely possible we may be back at the polls later this year!)

Starting with the facts of seat allocations:

• Likud-Beiteinu: 31
• Yesh Atid: 19
• Labor: 15
• Bayit Yehudi (BY): 11
• Shas: 11
• UTJ: 7
• Meretz: 6
• Livni: 6
• Kadima: 2
• Arabs: 12

Everyone in the mainstream media (MSM) makes a big hoo-ha about the Left and Right blocs being evenly balanced at 60 each.  Utter nonsense, from 2 perspectives:

1. The Arab parties are not part of any bloc, inasmuch as they cannot be included in any coalition.  Even the Lefties might briefly flirt with the idea of surprising everyone and making the first ever coalition that includes the Arab parties, but they'll drop that idea as soon as they consider what will happen the first time Israel has to respond to a security threat.  If the Arab parties focused more on issues concerning the civil rights of Israeli Arabs and less on furthering the goal of destroying Israel as a Jewish state, there might have been something to talk about...
2. Shas and UTJ are not part of any bloc, either.  Economically speaking, they are much closer to Labor than Likud.  The only issue they have with the Left is the anti-religious slant of most Leftist parties.  Shelly Yecimovich, however, has been mostly conciliatory, and I thought her explicit refusal to demonize Haredim was a very dignified stand.  Theoretically, she could form an alliance with them.

So I'm not going to analyze these results in terms of "blocs", but rather interests.  Let's see where that leads us.

• Likud: This was the second consecutive electoral humiliation for Netanyahu.  In both 2009 and 2013 he started the campaign with the wind at his tail, and twice now he has led the Likud into a situation where they have won by an embarrassingly narrow margin.  He needs a very stable coalition now, because if his government collapses mid-term, the knives will be out for him in the Likud.  Moshe Feiglin is a MK now.  If Feiglin could take 33% of the Likud primary vote (before blatant cheating in the official vote count took it down to 24%) without even being a MK, Netanyahu knows he will be facing a very serious challenge next time around.  For this reason, he may be prepared to offer much more than he would otherwise have wanted to to other parties in order to get a big coalition.
• Yesh Atid: Another one-hit-wonder party takes the political scene by storm.  I give Yair Lapid a lot more credit than most other right-wing commentators; I don't think he's as rabidly anti-Haredi as his late father, and I actually do believe he has some ideals.  He's a pragmatist, not a Lefty, not a Righty, which I think makes him an obvious coalition partner for Netanyahu.  He's done the math, and knows that the Left can't form a government without Likud, and he wants to make a difference in government, so he will want to cut a deal with Bibi.  But he has some compatibility issues in the coalition.  His flagship issue was equality in bearing the burden of civic responsibility.  That puts him at direct odds with Shas and UTJ.  He has more seats than Shas and UTJ put together, so he's in a position to make serious demands.  If he's in government, it is very unlikely Shas or UTJ will be.
• Labor: Silly, silly Shelly painted herself into a corner by publicly insisting she would not join a Likud-led government.  She'll have major egg on her face if she backtracks now.  Being that she is otherwise a very sincere person who means what she says, she will be the Leader of the Opposition.
• Bayit Yehudi: Will unquestionably be in the coalition.  The math doesn't work otherwise.  With 31 Likud + 19 Yesh Atid + 11 BY, there's your majority of 61.  But too close for comfort.  And any one party could bring down the government.  Bibi needs more partners than that.
• Shas: As mentioned before, there's an incompatibility issue with Yesh Atid.  Frankly, Likud is closer to Yesh Atid, ideologically speaking, than to Shas.  The only way they will be able to get into government is by making compromises on things like army service and separation of synagogue and state.  The nature of Shas is to fight rather than compromise, so I reckon it's the opposition for them.
• UTJ: They're generally more moderate than Shas, but still, I find it hard to envision how they will be able to compromise on their core issues of keeping Haredim out of the army and the workforce.  Plus, they usually go hand in hand with Shas, so I also call them in the opposition.
• Tzipi Livni: The most delusionally egoistic politician in the country, she won't join Bibi's coalition without a huge price tag, like being named Deputy Prime Minister or something like that.  Even her piffling 6 seats won't tame her demands.  There will be talks, but they won't get anywhere.  Bibi wants more support from somewhere to shore up his government, but the cost of having her on board will be too much to tolerate.  She won't last long in the opposition, either - before the next elections she will huffily resign from the Knesset and go back into political retirement... before her next grand announcement of yet another comeback... yaaawn....
• Meretz: Too far left to consider.  Next, please.
• Kadima: At this writing, Shaul Mofaz is still not breathing any sighs of relief, because the votes from the army could yet push him back below the entry threshold for the Knesset.  But assuming he gets in, he knows his only chance of political survival will be to get some position of prominence in the coalition.  His price will be very cheap, and Bibi will take him.  Plus, he has the added benefit of being a "Center Left" party... and Lapid promised he wouldn't join the coalition without another "Center Left" party.  Houston, we have synergy.

So my final prediction is that the coalition will be Likud, Yesh Atid, Bayit Yehudi and Kadima.  Bibi may make overtures to a few others, and it's not out of the bounds of possibility that another party or two will be enticed to join, but unlikely.

Bets, please!

Pre-election analysis for rational voters

Looks like everyone else around town is blogging their thoughts on how to vote this Tuesday, so I don't see why I shouldn't either.  Hopefully this logical decision tree will help you make up your mind too!

Let's start with the big questions.  In most other democracies in the world, the barometer is, as Bill Clinton put it, "It's the economy, stupid."  In Israel, where we face permanent existential threats, this changes to: "It's the security, stupid."  Left and Right in Israel are more about your approach to Israel's geopolitical situation.  Thus the moribund Kadima, which ran very much a capitalist, free-market economy under Ehud Olmert's tenure, is considered "Left", because of its "dovish" views on security, while Shas is considered "Right", despite its practically socialist economic platform.  Or at least, it was considered Right under Eli Yishai... things look a little different now that Aryeh Deri has successfully staged his coup...

So decision 1 in the tree is this: do you believe that Israel needs to make more concessions to the Palestinians in order to make peace?  If your answer is yes, your choice is between Labor, Yesh Atid, Kadima, Tzippi Livni's Movement (aptly named), and Meretz.  I won't dwell too much here because frankly they all make me ill.  I have some grudging respect for Shelly Yecimovich as a worthy adversary, and Meretz just because they actually do have an ideology.  If you're on this side of the political fence, here's where we part ways; I won't presume to advise you anything other than that you please should vote on Wednesday.

So if, like me, you're of the opinion that the Arabs will never agree to any peace deal with Israel that deprives them of the "right" to continue attempting to destroy Israel outright, you're left with several options: Likud-Beiteinu, Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home), Shas, UTJ (Gimmel) and Otzma L'Yisrael (Strong Israel).

Now some haredi readers might have tagged along till now, thinking, "There are more important things than security - like Torah.  It doesn't matter what security platform anyone has; the most important thing is that they are frumme Yidden who will make sure that the Torah world is well looked after."  I think the "Daas Torah" argument was very adeptly handled by Rav Slifkin - he put it much better than I ever could.  I will simply add that I have never forgiven UTJ for selling out the Jews of Gush Katif and voting for Sharon's 2005 Disengagement budget in exchange for a 290 million shekel bribe.  And it's not for me to forgive.  When they ask for (and receive) forgiveness from those 10,000 Jews for the trauma and suffering they callously caused them, then they can try and convince me that they're the party that represents Torah.  Till then, don't even talk to me.

Shas?  If you had to poll secular Israelis for which political party turns them off Judaism the most, I reckon Shas would coast home, even before UTJ rounded the final bend.  Aside from their socialist economics and the new Leftist inclination under new management - for crying out loud, they have a convicted embezzler at the top, who still shamelessly claims he's the victim of a Sephardophobic conspiracy!  You believe the conspiracy theories?  Then Shas is for you.

Now we're down to the wire.  3 parties left, all very security minded, all opposed to making stupid concessions to the Arabs that will only further undermine our position.  But wait?  Didn't Netanyahu, in his last term, do exactly that?  Building freezes, outpost evacuations, internationally declared support for the "two state solution"?

My gut wants to punish Netanyahu, and vote for one of the other two right-wing parties.  But let's take a step back and consider the implications.

I love Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben-Ari, just for the fact that they are so proud of their ideological stand.  You won't find them zigzagging about conscientious objection or our rights to all of Eretz Yisrael.  They are colorful and entertaining - but they are totally irrelevant to the overall political process.  Even if they got 10 seats in the Knesset they would be irrelevant, in the same way as the 11-12 Arab MKs are also irrelevant.  They will never be included in any coalition, and will never have any effect on government policy.  All they can do is make a noise from the sidelines.  Not that that noise is without value; it's good to have a fiery opposition, if just to raise public consciousness.  But you can get better bang for your buck as far as voting is concerned.

Naftali Bennett and Bayit Yehudi are really the phenomenon of the election.  From a combined 5 seats in the outgoing Knesset (BY plus half the National Union), they are looking at somewhere between double and triple that in the coming election.  I have tremendous respect for them, they have a strong, high-quality list of candidates (special mention for Jeremy Gimpel), and they are very likely to form part of the new coalition, which means they can influence government policy.  Or can they?

Well, not really, when it comes down to the wire.  If you recall, before the Disengagement, Sharon had a coalition including Mafdal (BY's predecessor).  When Mafdal voted against Disengagement, Sharon simply fired them and re-formed his coalition with the Left.

The fact is, BY may be part of the coalition, but they will always be dispensable if they ever get too uppity.  So Netanyahu will throw them a few bones to keep them happy, but they do not have critical leverage.

Now let's look again at the Likud-Beiteinu list.  Back in 2005, when the Likud split over the Disengagement, there was only a handful of Likud MKs who stood strong and voted against the Disengagement the whole way.  Today, things look very different.  In the top 21 of the Likud list, only 3 candidates have declared support for the two-state solution - Netanyahu himself, Hanegbi and Shama-Hacohen.  The rest of the list is filled with people of the calibre of Feiglin, Danon, Hotovely, Levin, Elkin, etc.  Aside from them, Saar, Erdan, Chaim Katz and Gamliel were all among the "Likud rebels" who voted against disengagement.  Also, very significantly for those of us in Beit Shemesh, Keti Sheetrit is in the long-shot position 38.  It would be really good for our city to get our first ever MK.  The Yisrael Beiteinu part is also very ideologically strong, including people like Yair Shamir and Uzi Landau.  The Likud of today cannot do another disengagement - because the prime minister would literally be left on his own.  Bayit Yehudi is dispensible, but the Likud is not.  The prime minister has to caucus with these people every week, and he cannot do anything without having his own team on board.

And it's not even the case that a vote for Likud is equivalent to a vote for Bayit Yehudi.  The smaller the Likud is, the less stable the coalition will be, and the more likely Netanyahu will have to rely on the Left to build his coalition.  Let's take a hypothetical best-case scenario where Likud-Beiteinu gets 61 seats by itself, and doesn't need any other party to join the coalition.  In such a case, there would be no need to buy off smaller, sectoral-interest parties, no ministers-without-portfolio, no need for pork mutton-barrel politics.  Imagine that!  You could have a government that is focused only on things that matter, rather than having to keep soothing the egos and budget needs of disgruntled nochschleppers.

The opposite scenario is too horrible for words.  Imagine Likud with 30 seats, BY with 15, Labor with 19, Yesh Atid with 12, Shas with 11, UTJ with 6, Livni with anything.  Now Likud has to pull in at least two other parties just to break 61.  In order to neutralize the threat of any one party being able to bring down the coalition, you would need 61 plus the number of seats of the next biggest coalition partner.  We'll need so many joke ministries it's frightening: a "Minister for Administrative Affairs", a "Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister's Office" and 3 Ministers Without Portfolio.  Every one of these coalition partners is going to be constantly whining about the amount of budget they get allocated to their pet cause, and since no two of them will be able to agree on anything of significance, it'll be another 4 years of being stuck in the same rut.  Sound familiar?  Yes, that's exactly the scenario we have today.

When you vote for a splinter party, you are voting for bloated government, inefficiency and corruption.

So I'm voting Likud.  They have governed this country excellently for the last four years, and they will do even better, the more they are free of the whines and demands of coalition partners.  The Likud has a party list I'm proud of, and I think they are the best people on offer to be running the government on Israel.

I hope you will do the same!