Elections Take 2: Game Theory analysis

It's election time, take 2. For those who have joined us late, here's a TL;DR of the situation:

Aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!

Ok, here's a little more detail:

Israel had elections on 9 April 2019. Even though the "right wing" bloc had comfortably enough seats to form a government, Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu) decided that he would not sit in any government with the Haredi parties. His 5 seats were required for a majority, so Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu could not form a coalition without involving parties to his left, and none of those parties were interested. So rather than allowing Benny Gantz of Kachol Lavan (Blue & White) to have a chance at forming a coalition, Netanyahu had the 21st Knesset dissolve itself, and new elections were called for 17 September.

Netanyahu was hoping that the outcome of the next election will make it easier for him to form a coalition. So, how's that working out so far? As it turns out, very well for Liberman, not so well for Netanyahu. As always, Israel is obsessed with polls, of which several get published every week. For the purposes of this discussion, I'll work with the poll showing the most optimistic numbers from Netanyahu's perspective, which I lifted off the Yisrael Hayom website:

Credit: Yisrael Hayom

This Channel 12 poll from 3 August shows Netanyahu with a total of 57 seats, if you exclude Yisrael Beitenu. And as I said, that's the most optimistic one for him. If the polls are accurate, Netanyahu still has no path to a right-wing coalition, unless Liberman suddenly decides that he's willing to climb down from his anti-Haredi tree. And why should he, seeing as his hardline stand seems to have literally doubled his support? No, Liberman has found what he thinks is a winning formula, and he will stick with it.

What about Gantz? Could he form a centre/left coalition? Here the answer is an even clearer No. His problem is the hate map among his prospective partners. It's like this: The Democratic Camp (heir to Meretz) won't sit with the Haredim. Nor will Liberman. And if there's anyone Liberman hates more than the Haredim, it's the Arabs. And even if he could be persuaded to sit with the Arabs, the United Arab List is too stuck in their anti-Zionist rejectionism, and under their current leadership, will not join any Israeli government. Gantz's optimal non-conflicting coalition is B&W, Labour, Shas, and UTJ, for a grand total of 50 seats. It's not happening for him.

So, back to Netanyahu - how else could he form a coalition? Well, logically speaking, if he can't do it with parties to his right, then he'll have to turn to his left. He has two realistic options here: B&W and Labour. Each has its advantages and disadvantages.

B&W is closer to Likud politically than Labour. A Likud/B&W coalition could potentially form a government without involving any smaller parties. If they need to bring in anyone else, Ayelet Shaked would be the obvious choice. Not Liberman, because I suspect Netanyahu would want to punish him for getting us all into the mess in the first place. Plus, he's shown himself to be an unreliable coalition partner in the past.

The biggest problem with B&W is that they will come with a big asking price, most likely a rotation deal for Prime Minister. And Netanyahu most certainly does not want to give up his job. That will be a deal breaker, in my opinion.

Labour, on the other hand, has embarrassingly little bargaining power, and cannot come with huge demands. If they ask too much, they will get nothing. I can easily see a situation where Netanyahu offers Amir Peretz some obscure post like the Welfare Ministry, and maybe something else peripheral like Agriculture for one of his cronies, in order to sit in the government. Peretz has two choices: a nice ministerial salary to see him comfortably into his retirement, or the glorious distinction of being the leader of the smallest faction in the Opposition. Whichever path he chooses, Labour will kick him out as leader before the next election (as appears to be their custom), so he really has nothing to lose. He'll come up with some rationalization about why he's joining a right-wing/Haredi government, and jump on the gravy train, as befits a good socialist. And that is Netanyahu's path to 61.

Now, you might think we're done here. But this is just where the fun begins. It's time to play Rational Pirates! BUWAHAHAHAHAAA!

Arrr! Shiver me timbers!

Of course, I'm referring to the famous Pirate Game, and if you don't know what that is, you should visit the link. I'm casting Netanyahu and Gantz as the Rational Pirates in our story.

Netanyahu knows he has a path to 61, as described above. But it has its problems. He needs five parties, including his own Likud, in his coalition, they all have their agendas pulling in different directions, and any one of the other four could bring down the government at the drop of a hat. Make that five other parties, since Yamina is just a technical bloc, and once they're in the Knesset they can function independently as the New Right and Bayit Yehudi. Running a government that is constantly beholden to the demands of five other coalition partners will not be easy. Wouldn't it be nice if he could just have one big partner--Blue & White--and not have to bother with those pesky little nudnik parties? If necessary, he could just pull in one other small party, maybe New Right, maybe Bayit Yehudi, to make his 61.

But Gantz wants a rotating Prime Minister position! "Well," Netanyahu can tell him, "I don't need you to form a government. I already have my path to 61, with Labour. But I'd prefer to work with you. We're not that far apart on most issues of substance, and together we can make a coalition that is not beholden to the whims of smaller parties, for the greater good of Israel! Rotating premiership is off the table, but you can have the Defense Ministry and even the Foreign Ministry. Of course, if you'd prefer to be the Leader of the Opposition instead for the next four or five years, that's fine...but chaval al hazman..."

Now Gantz has a quandary. He's made a lot of pronouncements about refusing to join a coalition with Netanyahu. But this really is a great opportunity to form the government that Middle Israel desperately wants. Free from the political demands of the Left and Right fringes; unencumbered by the budgetary needs of the Haredim. How will history remember him? As yet another Opposition leader who never made any impact? Or as the hero who put aside his personal differences with his political opponents, for the greater good?

Gantz nods sagely, then extends his hand to Netanyahu. "You've got a deal," he says. And this is how a coalition is formed between Blue & White, and maybe one other small party.

Alternative scenario: Zehut and Otzma Yehudit pass the threshold

All the above assumes that the smaller ring-wing parties, Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, fail to pass the 3.25% voting threshold. But what if they do? They immediately arrive on the scene with 4 seats each. Those 8 seats will come more or less proportionately off the rest of the parties. Let's say everyone else on that poll loses 1 seat, other than the Arab List (just for argument's sake). Now Netanyahu technically has a path to 61 with just right-wing parties: 29 Likud, 11 Yemina, 6 Shas, 7 UTJ, 4 Zehut, 4 Otzma. But it doesn't really change much from our previous scenario, where Labour filled in the gap; in fact, the optics of forming a coalition with the Kahanists are so bad that Netanyahu would arguably prefer to have Labour in the coalition rather than Otzma. Plus, he hates Moshe Feiglin of Zehut. So it's back to the Rational Pirates game, with pretty much the same inputs as before.

So it seems all roads lead to the same outcome: a Likud/Blue & White coalition, with Netanyahu as Prime Minister.

Of course, anything could happen in the next month, and the seat distribution could be wildly different from current polling. We'll take a look at that after 17 September. See you then!

Credit: Jpost

Election fun!

Seven talking points about the election on April 9

A lot of people are talking about how disillusioned they are about next week's general election in Israel, how no party really deserves their vote, and how bad and dangerous certain candidates or parties are. I have a different take on things that is a lot more upbeat. Here are seven talking points for your consideration.

1. The polls are (mostly) rubbish

One of the best things that has come out of this election is the legal ruling obtained by the Green Leaf Party early in the campaign, requiring (among other things) that polling companies release their raw data, not just their final calculations. While most of the media doesn't report on the raw data anyway, it's available, and extremely interesting. 

For example, I present you with Exhibit A, the raw data from a Channel 13 poll taken on 28 March:

The leftmost column is the percentage of respondents who chose the selected option; the middle column is the number of seats they are allocated, based on their raw data. Loosely. Very loosely.

The first thing I will draw your attention to is the contrast between the results of UTJ and the New Right. In the raw data, UTJ scored 3.8%, while NR got 3.7%: a virtual dead heat. Yet in the allocation of seats, UTJ gets 7, while NR gets only 5! Now, this is not necessarily gross misrepresentation; after all, UTJ supporters are particularly difficult to poll, since very many of them do not use the Internet, and do not have SMS-capable phones, so it is probably correct to bump their numbers up somewhat. But how much? That's a question for the judgement of the pollsters.

Where it gets a little more dodgy is how Likud (21.6%) and Blue & White (25.5%) both ended up with exactly 30 seats. Or how Zehut (7.5%) and Labour (7.8%) were allocated 7 and 10 seats respectively. I suspect the pollsters are taking the 9.1% of "Undecideds" and allocating them to other parties according to their best judgement. Or according to their own political preferences. Or according to groupthink. Whatever. Whether the data manipulation is innocent or nefarious, it's pretty clear that polling is not an exact science. Expect results that are nowhere near the conventional wisdom.

2. The media hype about the Left/Right blocs is utter rubbish

Cartoon: Philip Whisenhunt, The Commonwealth Times

Every poll gets trumpeted in the media as a scorecard of how many seats are in the "Right" bloc, and how many are in the "Center-Left" bloc. So, for instance, the above poll would be announced as "Right bloc leads 64-56". If they're feeling really adventurous, they might call Zehut the "balance of power", since its leader, Moshe Feiglin, has said he has no preference between Binyamin Netanyahu or Benny Gantz for Prime Minister, claiming that the score is "Right 57-56 Center-Left", with Zehut being the kingmakers. Sounds really close and competitive, right?

Well, it's all utter rubbish, because they are ignoring the fact that the Arab parties are less concerned about serving their constituency than about grandstanding against anything and everything the government does, and will never join any coalition, whether "Right" or "Center-Left". This is a great pity; I've said often that it would be really cool if a right-wing government could co-opt at least one Arab party into the coalition with some harmless portfolio like Minister of Welfare. But it isn't happening any time soon, at least not with the current crop of Arab politicians, so those 11 seats in the poll above are spoilers, and cannot be counted in any "bloc", other than their own. So why does the media keep harping on with this ridiculous scorecard? Because it keeps things exciting; it sounds so much more like a cliffhanger than if they had to tell the truth, which is "Right 64-45 Center-Left".

3. There are no (really) bad scenarios

Photo credit: JPost

I don't believe in trash-talking, not even directed against politicians, and I'm not going to start now. Fortunately, I don't feel much temptation to do so, either. I have friends who support almost every one of the major parties, and I have not attempted to persuade them otherwise, because all the party lists contain some excellent people, who really love Israel, and sincerely want to do their best for the country. They also have a lot of candidates I don't like, but it's unrealistic to expect to like every single candidate on your party list. I may disagree with their approach, but who's to say I know better than them? At the very least, I don't see anyone on the map who both (a) has an agenda that I believe will be seriously detrimental to Israel, and (b) will likely have the power to implement that agenda. The most serious concern I have is that the Blue-and-White party might install a trade union boss as finance minister, but I don't see that as a realistic scenario. As mentioned above, it seems to me that Netanyahu is a shoo-in to form the next government, but if it happens to be Gantz, I'm not too concerned; he would almost certainly have to rely on Feiglin to make his coalition, and Feiglin's price will include the Finance Ministry. Having Feiglin in the government also assuages any concerns I might have that a Gantz-led government would do anything too reckless on the diplomatic front. So, barring some kind of black swan event, I'm pretty relaxed about whatever outcome this election yields.

4. Zehut is a game-changer

That brings me to Feiglin and Zehut. Without getting into arguments for or against any aspect of their platform, I think it's fair to say that Zehut's entry into Israeli politics is a massive game-changer. Firstly, the fact that they even have a manifesto is, amazingly enough, unprecedented. Every other political party only has a list of personalities; you vote for the people and hope they do in office what they intimated they might do while they were campaigning. Zehut has a 344-page platform, spelling out exactly what policies they have committed themselves to. We'll see how good they are about following through on their commitments once they're in office, but one way or another, I hope more parties do the same in future, rather than asking us to close our eyes and open our mouths.

Just one of hundreds of Zehut memes

Secondly, Zehut has whipped up both support and opposition to levels of near-hysteria. You can't post a kitten video on Facebook, without some Zehutnik friend of yours commenting about how life will be better for cats once Zehut runs the country, see page 271 of the platform #מצביע_זהות. To which your Meretz friend responds, calling the Zehut friend a messianic fanatic who wants to build the Third Temple. Then a United Right friend accuses him of being a pothead who wants to destroy Judaism in Israel, followed by a Likudnik berating Feiglin for his anticipated betrayal of the Right, while a Blue & White supporter says Zehut is a dangerous cabal of extreme Rightists who will bring the apocalypse down on our heads. Seriously. Somehow, Zehut has stirred up the pot so much, that literally every other political party feels threatened by them, and the accusations against them are diametrically opposite, depending from direction they originate. That itself speaks volumes. Plus, it's hugely entertaining.

Thirdly, no party before has gone so hard for the jugular in terms of their libertarian agenda to root out the ugly vestiges of socialism in Israel. They are aiming for the Finance Ministry, and there is good reason to believe they will get it. And from there, I am very optimistic that they will liberalize the economy, removing the protectionism, tariffs, and other obstacles to the individual's economic success. Bring it on.

To the people who are worried about Zehut's proposed solution to the Palestinian issue, I get that concern. But, much like Blue & White's union boss is unlikely to become finance minister, I don't see Zehut dictating foreign or security policy any time soon, and they haven't prioritized those issues on their agenda. They're going for finance and education, and in both of those fields, I think they will be an excellent force for good.

5. There is life after Netanyahu

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

The election has been complicated by the legal cloud hanging over Netanyahu's head, though that doesn't seem to have affected his likelihood of reelection much. Nonetheless, the indictment against him carries some serious weight. Noah Roth posted an excellent and balanced analysis of the case here, and its really worth reading. 

The bottom line is that even after winning the election, Netanyahu could well be forced out of office. And if he is, the next prime minister will likely be determined by primary elections within the Likud. Are you a Likud member? If so, you may be treated to the privilege of directly electing the next leader of Israel. And despite the fact that many first time voters don't even remember a time when Israel had a prime minister not called Binyamin Netanyahu, everything will be OK. There are a lot of very good and highly qualified candidates in the Likud, and even some who speak English as well as Bibi. Netanyahu has been a very good prime minister, in my opinion, but even without his legal issues, he should have been term-limited. It's not good to have the same person in power for too long, and some fresh leadership might be nice.

6. Not much else will change

As mentioned above, Zehut's likely takeover of the Finance Ministry has potential to make some big impact on the economy. Plus, they've made cannabis legalization a sine qua non condition of entry into any coalition, and nobody is really that strongly against it, so I think it's safe to say we'll soon see pot on sale in pharmacies within the next year.

Other than that, I don't see many other policy initiatives making much headway. The Charedi parties will likely be indispensable to any coalition, so I cannot foresee any major changes to the status quo as far as social or religious legislation is concerned. The Likud will remain in control of security and foreign policy, so expect more of the same there. Ayelet Shaked is banging war drums against the High Court, but I don't foresee her achieving much more of a judicial revolution in her next term of office than she did in the first one. 

The really big unknown factor, of course, will be the unveiling of Trump's Middle East Peace Plan. I have no idea what's in it. Those who do know, aren't saying, and those who say, don't know. But that's one thing that has the potential to set the cat among the pigeons.

7. Relax, everything will be fine!

Credit: Chabad.org

This election is characterized by the fact that there aren't really any probable nightmare scenarios, which hasn't always been the case in past elections. Most of the candidates are actually pretty decent, and whatever happens, things will be fine.

It's not worth getting into heated debates on social media. Our relationships with our friends and neighbors will continue past April 9; it's really not worth burning them over one or two votes here or there.

Shalom al Yisrael!

Why I'm voting Likud for city council

First up, before I even get into tachlis, I'm sure there are a bunch of people who read the title of this post and thought, "Why aren't you voting for Eli Cohen?"  For the edification of you newcomers to Israeli municipal elections, you have two votes: one is a yellow slip for mayor (Eli Cohen vs Moshe Abutbul), and one is a white slip where you vote for a party list.  Unfortunately we still don't have any directly elected ward councillors; you vote for a party and the seats on city council are divvied up according to our rather complex system of proportional representation.  So yes, it's a complete no-brainer to vote Eli Cohen for mayor, and I'm not even going to address that angle.  Rather, I'm going to tell you why I'm voting Likud (מחל) for city council.

When I joined Likud, I did so for a national agenda, in order to support Moshe Feiglin. Incidentally, thanks to the efforts of thousands of others like me, Moshe is now a member of Knesset, and doing way better than I ever expected, and the Likud of today is not the spineless Likud that bowed to Ariel Sharon's disastrous disengagement.  But that's beside the point.  My point is, that I never saw the Likud as being that important on a local government level; I thought it much more useful to have representatives on council whom I could trust, who were my neighbors and who would look out for me and my community's interests.  And who were all the Likud representatives on council, anyway?  Predominantly traditional Moroccans from Old Beit Shemesh, with not a heckuva lot in common with me, culturally speaking.  So in the past municipal elections I gave my vote to Anglo parties, so that there would at least be someone on the council representing my culture and values.

This year, however, my perspective has completely changed.  Since becoming a member of the local Likud branch council, I've come to know a lot of these old-time Likudnikim.  To be sure, there's still a big cultural gap between us, e.g. I do often need to ask them kindly not to smoke while we're having our meetings.  But the fact is, they are sincerely and completely dedicated to serving the greater community of Beit Shemesh.  Take a look at this Facebook page for a list of the Likud's achievements over the past 5 years.  And then consider that during that time, the Likud was in the Opposition.  That means it wasn't even their job to be working on these things - but they did it anyway.  And if you ask them why they did all this stuff if they weren't in the coalition, they will look at you as if you just suggested eating falafel with a knife and fork.  That's just what you do for your city!

And it's not for the glory, either.  Everything they did over the past 5 years was done on the quiet.  When Likud Knesset candidate Keti Shitrit mentioned to a group of us Likud Anglos a couple of days ago that the budget for the expansion of Road 38 was secured by Shalom Edri (the local Likud chairman), we expressed surprise, seeing as Mayor Abutbul has claimed that as one of his achievements.  "Mah pitom!  We have a letter from [Minister of Transportation] Yisrael Katz to prove that it was Shalom who convinced him to spare Road 38 from the budget cuts!"  But they never publicized it before.  They never thought to - because they didn't do it for the publicity.  So we Anglos took that letter and gave it the exposure it deserves.

OK, so all I've proved so far is that the Likudnikim are really good people who do a lot of work for the community.  But still, why vote for them when there are so many other really good people running for council - Anglos, people like us?

I agree that many of the other party lists are filled to the brim with amazing people, some of whom are good personal friends of mine.  I wish them every success, I hope they make it to council, and I am convinced that they will serve the community to the very best of their ability.

But the key phrase here is: to the very best of their ability.  If you peruse the Likud's list of achievements, you will notice that the majority of them were achieved because they had the ear of the relevant minister in the national government.  If you have a problem, and you call your friendly local councillor Shmerel from the Anglos Like Me Party, he will certainly listen and do his level best to help out.  He will bang on whatever doors he can in the municipality and try to escalate your issue to anyone who can help out.  But if your problem is, for example, that the road outside your house resembles a moonscape, and the mayor is crying about budget cuts beyond his control, then who does councillor Shmerel call?  He doesn't have the cellphone number of the Minister of Transportation - and even if he did, the Minister wouldn't recognize the caller ID and would let it go to voicemail.  Your call is very important, please leave a message, along with the 327 other people who left me messages in the past 24 hours.  Oh well, I did my hishtadlus...

When Shalom Edri or Moshe Shitrit picks up the phone to any given Likud minister, they answer within three rings.  That's why we have Road 10 today, that's why Route 38 is going to be expanded, and that's why the Orot Girls' School held strong against the extremists and their appeasers.  And why do the ministers care about some activist in some little backwater town?  Because Beit Shemesh is traditionally a Likud stronghold, and the ministers know they have to keep their support base happy.  The stronger the Likud representation is in Beit Shemesh, the greater our importance in the eyes of the Likud-led national government.

I won't say that voting Likud will give you a warm fuzzy feeling - but it's the smart vote if you're looking out for the overall good of Beit Shemesh.

So, that's why I'm voting מחל - Likud on October 22.  I hope you'll consider it, too.

Coalition Predictions Scorecard - and more

In a previous posting, Post-Election Game Theory, I laid out my predictions for how the coalition would look.  With the new government finally having been sworn in, after way more haggling than anyone expected, let's go back now and see how I did, only mentioning areas where I specifically went out on a limb.

1. Tachlis: I predicted a government composed of Likud, Yesh Atid, Bayit Yehudi and Kadima.  I was out by one: the Tzipi Livni Movement instead of Kadima.  (Or is that in addition to Kadima?  Nobody in the media seems to know - or care - whether Kadima is in or out of the coalition.  Me neither.)  
2. Labor: despite Netanyahu's sincere efforts to woo Yecimovich into the coalition, she stuck by her guns, as I predicted.
3. Bayit Yehudi: despite some very bad blood between them (apparently worse than I thought originally), Bibi finally had to bring Bennett into the government.  He really didn't want to, but like I said, the numbers just didn't work otherwise.
4. Shas: could conceivably have overcome their incompatibility issues with Yesh Atid by looking for compromises, but instead chose to dig in to their trenches, and now find themselves with no say in how the "sharing the burden" debate plays out.  Merubeh tafasta, lo tafasta - try get too much, and you end up with nothing.  I wish I had been wrong about that prediction, but I wasn't.
5. UTJ, while less strident in their rhetoric than Shas, also chose the route of conflict.  Pity, but also a clear call.
6. Tzippi Livni: this is the only one that completely blindsided me.  I was totally gobsmacked when Netanyahu cut the first deal with Livni, especially with her as lead negotiator with the Palestinians.  I think he thinks putting her into that position is going to teach her some stark lessons in reality, as in "Good luck with that!" - but frankly I'm quite afraid that she will be able to do Israel a lot of damage from that position. But given that she was included, it makes Kadima's piddly 2 mandates completely inconsequential, and therefore wasteful to include them in the coalition.

So it wasn't a 100% score, but still not too bad.  And from that position, I'm going to make a few more predictions.

1. Tzippi Livni won't last long in the government.  She can't.  Her pet issue is making a peace agreement with the Palestinians, and she will be unable to do so, for any number of reasons.  Either the Palestinians will continue to refuse flat-out to return to negotiations and continue on the unilateral track, or they will only come back to that table on condition that Israel in principle agrees to roll over and die as a precondition for restarting talks.  Livni will probably accept any preconditions they want, but she will be overruled by the rest of the coalition - or at least, I hope so.  Furthermore, with Bayit Yehudi controlling the Construction Ministry, and Moshe Yaalon as Minister of Defense, sooner or later Livni is going to proclaim that peace is just not achievable while we continue to "provoke" the Palestinians by allowing the residents of Efrat to enclose their verandas and instructing the army to actually defend themselves against Molotov cocktails rather than running away, and she will resign in a huff, doing as much damage as possible in the international arena on her way out, and try her hand (again) at Opposition politics.  I don't think we'll have to wait a year for that to happen, maybe as little as six months.  
2. The burden will be shared, and it will be done intelligently and fairly.  (Now that's going out on a limb!)  Shas and UTJ are spoiling for a fight; they will threaten that all the Haredim will go to jail rather than serve in the army; and they will be disappointed.  There will be no imprisonments, no arrests, not even skirmishes.  The government will simply enact a set of financial rules that will give attractive economic benefits to people who complete the army or other national service, not much for people who are officially exempted (e.g. new immigrants), and an extra tax on people who refuse to serve.  The Haredim will not be given the option of being public heroes and dramatically going to jail; instead they will have the much harder choice between doing national service and getting the concomitant economic benefits, or refusing and quietly going the long haul with an onerous tax burden.  Faced with this dilemma, I believe the rank and file will vote with their feet, and despite the pashkevillin that will be plastered over every vertical surface in Mea Shearim and Bnei Brak, screaming about how this is a milchemes mitzva and a chillul Hashem to do any kind of national service, a very large number of Haredim will go along with the new system.  It will certainly beat the indentured poverty into which the old system forces them.
3. The government can fall in one of two ways: either Yesh Atid falls off the Left flank, or Bayit Yehudi falls off the Right.  The only way I can think of that Yair Lapid will be sufficiently outraged as to walk out of the government would be if the government fails to implement a "sharing the burden" plan.  If he ever does quit the government, it won't hurt Bibi, because the Haredi parties will be lined up to take his place - and that might result in the undoing of said plan.  Lapid is in this coalition for the long haul, and his negotiating power is weak, because 19 mandates notwithstanding, he is replaceable.
4. Bennett, on the other hand, is less constrained by such considerations, because he truly is irreplaceable   If Bibi ventures too far Left, Bennett can threaten to bring down the government.  The Haredim will not replace them in a coalition with Lapid.  And around 75% of the Likud MKs themselves will agree with Bennett.  Unlike the 2005 Disengagement government, the vast majority of the Likud MKs are now strong ideologues who will themselves vote no-confidence in the government if Bibi tries to do a Sharon on us.  Even if Bibi tries to get Labor involved, it just can't work out.  Result: no more insane concessions to the Palestinians, and Tzippi Livni will quit the coalition (see above).  So Bennett really is sitting pretty.
5. As a result of the above considerations, absent any "black swan" events, I'm calling that this coalition will see out its full term of office.  That will be a first!

All told, I'm pretty optimistic about this government.  The common thread between the major coalition parties is that they're security wise, free market supporters with a non-coercive approach.  I think on the whole things are looking up for Israel.

Your thoughts?

The real reason why politicians don't want directly elected MKs

For a long time I've been struggling to understand why we persist with the Proportional Representation (PR) system here in Israel, despite its obvious weakness, in that it rewards small splinter parties, giving them disproportionate power in determining the composition of the government coalition.  It seems totally obvious that having directly elected district representatives, like in the USA and UK, would lead not only to more stable governments, but also to more responsibility on the individual MK to serve the public who elected them faithfully.

I first came to the conclusion that it was simple political cynicism: the people who would have to vote to change to directly elected MKs are the same MKs currently protected by the obscurity of party lists, so they are not held accountable for anything, and they can continue their ride on the gravy train without having to lift a finger.

But it still doesn't add up.  Even high performing politicians, and even the larger parties are still shifting and dodging and pushing direct elections off the agenda.  These are the people who stand to gain the most from direct elections!  There has to be some other reason...

And then I realized... it's actually quite obvious when you think about it, but it can't really be said out loud, as you will see.  I am going to say it out loud anyway.  The Powers That Be have plausible deniability, so I can say all the things they're likely thinking but can't say for themselves, and they will deny that this is their reasoning, even though it is.

Under the system of PR, MKs are elected according to the number of votes cast, more or less proportionately, though not exactly, because of certain kinks in the formula such as the minimum threshold and vote-sharing agreements.

If, however, we had to switch to district representatives, you would have to draw up districts.  While those districts could not practically all have the exact same number of registered voters in each, there would at least have to be approximately the same size.  Did you see the catch?  Registered voters, not votes cast.

Do you see the problem now?  I'll spell it out: the difference is in the Arab sector.  In today's Knesset, there are 11 representatives of Arab parties, including Chadash, which is actually more communist than Arab, but as part of the anti-Zionist bloc they depend heavily on Arab votes.  That's less than 10% of the Knesset.  In reality, Arabs make up roughly 20% of Israel's population - but since they typically have very low voter turnout, they are also very under-represented in the Knesset.  If, however, we had to draw up voting districts according to registered voters, without some significant gerrymandering, the Arab districts would make up closer to 20% of the Knesset.  That's enough to make any pro-Zionist think twice about switching to district representation.

And yet, I'm still in favor of making the change.  If you really do believe in democracy, then trust in the system.  There are a large number of benefits that would come about through directly elected representatives.

Firstly, having district representatives who are directly answerable to the people who elected them means they will have to work to better the lives of their constituents - including the Arab ones.  So if the MK for Umm-el-Fahm spends his tenure ranting about the evils of the Zionists and going on missions to Iran and Turkey to whip up more hatred - and doesn't do basic stuff like making sure that Umm-el-Fahm gets enough municipal budget to maintain the roads, build parks etc., then next time around his voters will kick him out.  I can even imagine Shas putting up candidates in the Arab towns, because they have a strong reputation for fighting for the lower classes.  Wouldn't that be funny?

Secondly, I'm not afraid of having more Arab MKs.  Right now, the Arab bloc is problematic, because their strident anti-Zionism precludes them from joining any coalition, which makes government building more difficult.  With directly elected MKs, though, the chances of even needing a coalition are very slim.  Immediately, all the single-issue parties like Tzippi Livni, Kadima, Otzma Leyisrael, Green Leaf etc. would be wiped out.  Parties like UTJ, whose support is very concentrated in specific areas, would only be able to win seats (albeit by huge margins) in their own strongholds, but overall, their strength would take a hit.  And the big winners would be the big parties, the ones who have a serious track record of governance.  It's quite likely that a single party - probably the Likud - would elect enough MKs to make the government all by itself.

Now, wouldn't that be a good thing?

What do you think?

Smart voting

Now that all the votes are in, let me present you with some telling statistics.  Take a look at where the so-called "right wing bloc" cast their votes.

66,775 people voted for Otzma LeYisrael.  They failed to pass the 2% threshold, and will not even have one seat in the 19th Knesset.

345,985 people voted for Bayit Yehudi, giving them 12 seats.

331,871 people voted for Shas and 195,893 for UTJ (Gimmel).

885,054 people voted Likud-Beiteinu, giving them 31 seats and making them the largest single party, which is the only reason why the leader of the Likud right now is the presumed Prime Minister-elect.

In the Likud primaries prior to the elections, the highest ranked candidate got 47,777 votes, while the last person to make it into this Knesset got 21,843.  And in the primaries for leadership of the Likud a year ago, Binyamin Netanyahu defeated Moshe Feiglin by about 30,000 votes, according to the doctored official results (and I know first hand that the results were fixed); his actual margin of victory was probably closer to 20,000.

So, assuming you're someone who would like to see a God-fearing Jew leading the Jewish state - where do you get the most bang for your buck - or vote?  Be one of the 66,775 people who flushed their votes down the "Netz" toilet?  One of 345,985 people who might, for their trouble, earn one or two peripheral ministries? Or one of 30,000 people who, had they been Likud members, could have made Feiglin the Prime Minister today?

This truth applies no matter what your political views (assuming you're not more naturally at home with the Left - in which case, you should join Labor).  Let's say you're Haredi and want to make sure that men are free to continue studying Torah and not be drafted.  At this writing, coalition negotiations are still in progress.  As things stand now, Shas and UTJ's combined 18 seats won't be worth a ki hu zeh if they can't climb down from their trees and come to some sort of compromise with Yesh Atid about "shivyon b'netel"; Netanyahu and Lapid will simply form a government without them, and all these hugely significant issues will be decided for them.  If you want to make a difference, you should be signing up yourself, your friends and your Rabbis for the Likud.  Get Haredim into the party structures and onto the Knesset list for the 20th Knesset.  Over half a million people voted for Haredi parties in this election.  If 10% of those people had joined the Likud, you could have had several Haredi MKs lodged into the governing party, and it would have been impossible to make any changes to the status quo without your participation.  Chaval al hazman.

If you really want to make a difference to the governance of Israel, then vote smart.  It costs 64 shekels a year for one person, 96 NIS for a couple.  

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Post-election game theory

The day after elections is always the most fun.  That's when all the amateur pundits get to speculate about who will make up the next coalition.  I did that after the 2009 elections, and if I may say so myself, I thought I did pretty well.  Here's a list of the things I called right:

1. About Labor: "Ehud Barak has stated that he's expecting to be in the opposition, but I don't think he'd say no to any opportunity to be part of anyone's coalition... if he could hang on to a ministry - any ministry - by signing up for a Likud coalition, I don't think Netanyahu's diplomatic or economic agenda would faze him much. He might have more of a problem convincing his fellow MKs to come along for the ride..."  And so it was.  Barak surprised everyone else by leading Labor into a coalition with Likud, but halfway through the term, Labor split in half.
2. About Kadima: "Kadima is not equipped to be an opposition party, and my prediction is that if they are not at least part of this government, they will be destroyed in the next election by the comeback of the more ideologically motivated Labor and Meretz."  OK, according to the provisional results, they hung on to existence by their fingernails, with 2 seats.  And the votes from the army might yet push them off the edge.  But still... pretty much spot on.
3. Livni would lose out in the coalition negotiations game to Netanyahu, mostly owing to her having burned her bridges with Shas.

So, having established my credentials from past performance, I now present my analysis of the first 2013 Knesset elections.  (It's entirely possible we may be back at the polls later this year!)

Starting with the facts of seat allocations:

• Likud-Beiteinu: 31
• Yesh Atid: 19
• Labor: 15
• Bayit Yehudi (BY): 11
• Shas: 11
• UTJ: 7
• Meretz: 6
• Livni: 6
• Kadima: 2
• Arabs: 12

Everyone in the mainstream media (MSM) makes a big hoo-ha about the Left and Right blocs being evenly balanced at 60 each.  Utter nonsense, from 2 perspectives:

1. The Arab parties are not part of any bloc, inasmuch as they cannot be included in any coalition.  Even the Lefties might briefly flirt with the idea of surprising everyone and making the first ever coalition that includes the Arab parties, but they'll drop that idea as soon as they consider what will happen the first time Israel has to respond to a security threat.  If the Arab parties focused more on issues concerning the civil rights of Israeli Arabs and less on furthering the goal of destroying Israel as a Jewish state, there might have been something to talk about...
2. Shas and UTJ are not part of any bloc, either.  Economically speaking, they are much closer to Labor than Likud.  The only issue they have with the Left is the anti-religious slant of most Leftist parties.  Shelly Yecimovich, however, has been mostly conciliatory, and I thought her explicit refusal to demonize Haredim was a very dignified stand.  Theoretically, she could form an alliance with them.

So I'm not going to analyze these results in terms of "blocs", but rather interests.  Let's see where that leads us.

• Likud: This was the second consecutive electoral humiliation for Netanyahu.  In both 2009 and 2013 he started the campaign with the wind at his tail, and twice now he has led the Likud into a situation where they have won by an embarrassingly narrow margin.  He needs a very stable coalition now, because if his government collapses mid-term, the knives will be out for him in the Likud.  Moshe Feiglin is a MK now.  If Feiglin could take 33% of the Likud primary vote (before blatant cheating in the official vote count took it down to 24%) without even being a MK, Netanyahu knows he will be facing a very serious challenge next time around.  For this reason, he may be prepared to offer much more than he would otherwise have wanted to to other parties in order to get a big coalition.
• Yesh Atid: Another one-hit-wonder party takes the political scene by storm.  I give Yair Lapid a lot more credit than most other right-wing commentators; I don't think he's as rabidly anti-Haredi as his late father, and I actually do believe he has some ideals.  He's a pragmatist, not a Lefty, not a Righty, which I think makes him an obvious coalition partner for Netanyahu.  He's done the math, and knows that the Left can't form a government without Likud, and he wants to make a difference in government, so he will want to cut a deal with Bibi.  But he has some compatibility issues in the coalition.  His flagship issue was equality in bearing the burden of civic responsibility.  That puts him at direct odds with Shas and UTJ.  He has more seats than Shas and UTJ put together, so he's in a position to make serious demands.  If he's in government, it is very unlikely Shas or UTJ will be.
• Labor: Silly, silly Shelly painted herself into a corner by publicly insisting she would not join a Likud-led government.  She'll have major egg on her face if she backtracks now.  Being that she is otherwise a very sincere person who means what she says, she will be the Leader of the Opposition.
• Bayit Yehudi: Will unquestionably be in the coalition.  The math doesn't work otherwise.  With 31 Likud + 19 Yesh Atid + 11 BY, there's your majority of 61.  But too close for comfort.  And any one party could bring down the government.  Bibi needs more partners than that.
• Shas: As mentioned before, there's an incompatibility issue with Yesh Atid.  Frankly, Likud is closer to Yesh Atid, ideologically speaking, than to Shas.  The only way they will be able to get into government is by making compromises on things like army service and separation of synagogue and state.  The nature of Shas is to fight rather than compromise, so I reckon it's the opposition for them.
• UTJ: They're generally more moderate than Shas, but still, I find it hard to envision how they will be able to compromise on their core issues of keeping Haredim out of the army and the workforce.  Plus, they usually go hand in hand with Shas, so I also call them in the opposition.
• Tzipi Livni: The most delusionally egoistic politician in the country, she won't join Bibi's coalition without a huge price tag, like being named Deputy Prime Minister or something like that.  Even her piffling 6 seats won't tame her demands.  There will be talks, but they won't get anywhere.  Bibi wants more support from somewhere to shore up his government, but the cost of having her on board will be too much to tolerate.  She won't last long in the opposition, either - before the next elections she will huffily resign from the Knesset and go back into political retirement... before her next grand announcement of yet another comeback... yaaawn....
• Meretz: Too far left to consider.  Next, please.
• Kadima: At this writing, Shaul Mofaz is still not breathing any sighs of relief, because the votes from the army could yet push him back below the entry threshold for the Knesset.  But assuming he gets in, he knows his only chance of political survival will be to get some position of prominence in the coalition.  His price will be very cheap, and Bibi will take him.  Plus, he has the added benefit of being a "Center Left" party... and Lapid promised he wouldn't join the coalition without another "Center Left" party.  Houston, we have synergy.

So my final prediction is that the coalition will be Likud, Yesh Atid, Bayit Yehudi and Kadima.  Bibi may make overtures to a few others, and it's not out of the bounds of possibility that another party or two will be enticed to join, but unlikely.

Bets, please!

Political predictions

Mr 180 IQ shows his mettle

Please allow me the opportunity to gloat a bit. Today's political bombshell came as a huge surprise to most of the world, but not to me. I regret now that I never wrote it on my blog, but I have witnesses that I've been calling this practically since the results came out of the previous election.  This situation whereby the largest party in the Knesset constitutes less than a quarter thereof, and therefore it will be minority even within its own coalition, is utterly ridiculous.  The big parties know this, and despite their other political differences, they have one confluence of interests, which is the reform of the electoral system such that 3- or 4-seat splinter, sectoral-interest parties are either eliminated or neutered.  I predicted that 6 months to a year before the next elections came due, Netanyahu (with his estimated 180 IQ) should have enough sense and foresight to band together with Labor/Kadima/Yisrael Beiteinu (or whatever configuration thereof would get him a Knesset majority) and in one signal act, they would jointly nail the smaller parties and institute a major electoral reform to benefit the mainstream parties, before dissolving the Knesset and going to elections under the new rules.  When all this talk started about dissolving the Knesset already and going to new elections, I was sorely disappointed.  And then this morning - I was vindicated!  Bibi has been listening to me all along, and this whole spiel about going to elections now was just a clever ruse to catch everyone else off guard.  A brilliant ploy, indeed.

Mofaz - is he really a winner from this?

Now let's look forward.  Today everyone is lauding this as the largest coalition in Israel's history.  Personally, I don't give it a month in this configuration.  The main "official" reason given for Kadima entering the government at this point is to draft a replacement to the Tal Law, which gave automatic exemption from conscription to Charedim, and effectively prevented anyone who didn't go to the army from getting a legal job.  The other, less touted reason is, as I mentioned above, is electoral reform.  Other than that, there is very little in common between the main coalition partners - from security to social policy, Kadima (at least under Livni) was reflexively opposed to anything the Likud said or did.  Even assuming they have no actual principles other than the pursuit of power, and being in government is currently in their interests, they are not going to give an easy rubber stamp to anything Bibi wants, because they need to distinguish themselves before the next scheduled elections, and somehow do something that will reverse their current abysmal showing in the polls.  If they go quietly to the next elections as acquiescent enablers for Bibi, Labor will eat them alive.  They will have to manufacture some "principled" reason to walk out of the coalition before the next election. Which makes Bibi's pre-condition to Mofaz that Kadima will stay in the coalition to the bitter end all the more ingenious.  If Mofaz complies, without achieving anything for the Left, Labor will have him for breakfast.  If Bibi plays his cards right, he will keep Mofaz on a short leash, but not violate any of today's agreements, so if Mofaz decides in 9 months' time to bolt the coalition for some contrived reason, he will look like a whiner who doesn't honor agreements.  Granted that this is still a better scenario for Mofaz than going to elections now, but still his only hope is that in the next year Bibi gives him substantial grounds for quitting the government on principle and looking like a hero.  And Bibi has a 180 IQ.

Now, given that Kadima and Likud's only real shared interests are (a) replacing the Tal Law, and (b) electoral reform, where is that going to leave the smaller parties in the coalition?  Mafdal (Bayit Yehudi) might be game for a new Tal Law, but Shas will squirm and UTJ will vehemently oppose any change to the current situation, whereby Charedim are prevented by social pressure from joining the army, and therefore by law from joining the workforce, which leaves them no alternative but to stay in the Beis Midrash (and incidentally, in near-guaranteed lifelong poverty).  And as for electoral reform, which is totally against their interests, all of them will try to block anything new.  But now, with Kadima in the coalition, Netanyahu can (and probably will) simply throw them out, and railroad the electoral reform without them.

Nachal Charedi soldiers

Once the Tal Law replacement and electoral reform have been legislated, I believe the coalition with Kadima will have served its purpose.  Being that Likud and Kadima are such bitter rivals, the coalition will anyway be unmanageable, and for Netanyahu's next trick, he will dissolve the Knesset then and there, catching everyone else flat-footed.  He will look like a genius, having deftly manipulated Kadima in and out of his government, Mofaz might be able to claim some credit for showing some national responsibility, and the small parties will get the short end of the stick.  The next government, led again by Likud, might even get an outright majority, once the right-wing splinter parties realize their interests will best be served by joining up with the Likud.

All in all, kudos to Netanyahu for bringing about what I think will be a very significant and beneficial shakeup to the Israeloi political landscape.

Awakenings

I'm poking my head up from my self-imposed blogging sabbatical just because this video is too good not to share. It'll take 20 minutes of your time, but I think it's worth it. I found it very inspiring.



When you're done, don't lose the moment of inspiration. Click here now, and do what you gotta.

Amateur Game Theory analysis - Elections 2009 (1st Quarter)

I'm a great fan of the very concept of Game Theory - the study how to model strategic situations mathematically - for which our very own Prof Yisrael Aumann won a Nobel Prize in Economics.

I would love to know how Prof Aumann would map out the political landscape on Feb 11 2009, the day after Netanyahu stole defeat from the jaws of victory - but unfortunately I don't have access to him or his phenomenal knowledge and understanding. Even so, I'm going to dabble a bit in analyzing where things stand on the political landscape, and how they will play out.

First up: the facts. As of this writing, the provisional seat allocations are:
Kadima - 28
Likud - 27
Yisrael Beiteinu - 15
Labor - 13
Arabs - 12
Shas - 11
National Union - 4
Gimmel - 4
Bayit Yehudi - 3
Meretz - 3

Now bear in mind that the votes from the army usually favor the Likud or other right-wing parties, and they have the power to swing one or two mandates. Furthermore, Kadima made its vote-sharing agreement with the Green Party, which failed to make the cut, so they won't be getting diddly squat from any vote sharing agreements, making them even less likely to benefit from the army's votes. But in the meantime it's an unknown and I'm going to discount the army votes for now.

So here's my take on the parties, what motivates them, and how negotiations will go, working in rough order of more certain behavior to less certain.

The Arabs: up to 12 seats, will probably lose one or two from the army votes. Bad news for everyone; they won't join any coalition and are effectively just there as spoilers.

Meretz: I shed no tears for them; they lost their support to Kadima, and that's a large part of the reason why Livni pipped Bibi at the post. If only the right-wingers who voted for Lieberman had realized the same thing on the other side of the spectrum... Anyway, Meretz is squarely in the Kadima camp; no way they'll be part of a Likud-led coalition. And if Livni wants Lieberman in her government, she'll have to do without Meretz, too.

National Union: Will never join a Kadima-led coalition, being that they view Kadima as Satan's spawn (as do I). Lo nishkach v'lo nislach.

Bayit Yehudi ("New" Mafdal): Will join any coalition that will have them. The epitome of dati leumi obsequiousness, they will attempt to do kiruv on the most hardened and cynical of politicians, following the tradition of Mafdal remaining in Sharon's government in the vain hope that their feckless presence would somehow prevent the expulsion and destruction of Gush Katif.

UTJ (Gimmel): Same goes for them, except they're less obsequious and more demanding; they will join any government that will meet their price tag.

Shas: They've officially thrown in their lot with Bibi, and Livni has publicly all but burnt her bridges with them. It will take a lot for her to climb down and accept now what she rejected before with such righteous indignation. Shas's price tag is not only waaay higher than UTJ's; it carries with it a strident demand for a socialist economic policy, which even Netanyahu is going to have difficulty finessing. Being that both Likud and Kadima are basically free market supporters, Shas must know that their demands are not going to be met easily, and both Likud and Kadima would frankly rather form a coalition without Shas at all - if they could.
Question: Knowing that his party is suffered rather than welcomed in a coalition, will Eli Yishai tone down his demands and try to get what he can rather than take the chance of being left completely out in the cold?

Labor: Ehud Barak has stated that he's expecting to be in the opposition, but I don't think he'd say no to any opportunity to be part of anyone's coalition. He's more naturally at home with Kadima, but I can easily see him in a Likud coalition, too. Remember, this "socialist" follows the tradition of many other socialist leaders by making sure that his own nest is very well feathered before he attends to the needs of the starving masses. I don't think there's an ideological bone in his body; if he could hang on to a ministry - any ministry - by signing up for a Likud coalition, I don't think Netanyahu's diplomatic or economic agenda would faze him much. He might have more of a problem convincing his fellow MKs to come along for the ride, especially when the knives are already out for him in his own party...

Yisrael Beiteinu: While I may quietly enjoy some of Avigdor Lieberman's demagoguery, the man simply gives me the creeps. There's something darkly Orwellian about him. He says he's right-wing, but he sat quite happily in Ehud Olmert's government while the embers of Gush Katif were still warm. His loyalty to the Jewish people and Eretz Yisrael is not religious; it's racist - and he is open about the fact that he is quite happy to toss away pieces of Israel just so he can get rid of the Arab Israeli citizens who're on it.

Fundamentally, though, Lieberman is a power-seeker, and as head of the 3rd largest party, he knows that he should be in any coalition. He will go to the highest bidder.

Likud: If Netanyahu doesn't manage to block Livni and form his own government, his political career is finished, and he knows it. This electoral loss, when he should have had an easy win, is an enormous embarrassment to him, and he will be desperate to pull this one out of the fire. He also will not play second fiddle to Livni. As far as he's concerned, the right-wing bloc won, and he should be PM. And don't ever forget the deep enmity and resentment between Likud and it's mamzer step-child Kadima. Forget about sitting in any Kadima-led coalition; the Likud MKs will never agree to it. They would rather do another stint in the opposition, knowing that the moment Livni slips up, they can form their own government without going to elections again.

Kadima: Kadima is desperate, too, but for a different reason. If they don't get into government, they will have as much chance of surviving until the next election as a catfish in a terrarium. Kadima was conceived, formed and congealed around only one thing: power. They have no common ideology, just a deep desire to be in charge, and they do not care if Israel is turned into a smoldering pile of ashes, as long as they can stand on top of the pile. This is why they pursue the diplomatic agenda they do - they perceive that this is where the international community and the ruling elites of the media and judiciary want them to go, and as long as they continue sticking it to the settlers and advertising wholesale giveaways of Israel's historical and strategic assets, their grip on power will be strengthened. Kadima is not equipped to be an opposition party, and my prediction is that if they are not at least part of this government, they will be destroyed in the next election by the comeback of the more ideologically motivated Labor and Meretz. Question: if Tzipi Livni knew she could not form her own government, would she play second fiddle to Netanyahu?

Tachlis: here's the scorecard:
Kadima + Meretz = 31 MKs who will only sit in a Kadima coalition.
Likud + NU = 31 MKs who will only sit in a Likud coalition.
YB + Labor + Shas + UTJ + Mafdal = 46 votes for sale, of which 13 are more inclined toward Kadima and 33 more toward Likud.

At this point, Likud seems to be sitting pretty. Bibi says he wants a government of national unity. If Kadima decides to sit this one out, Likud+Labor+YB = 55; add NU and Mafdal, and the charedim can safely be left out in the cold, too. Obviously Bibi would want some insurance, and with less negotiating leverage, Shas and UTJ could be brought in for a much lower price. Even YB would theoretically be disposable in such a coalition, which would then leave the Likud with a narrow 62 MK coalition - and that wouldn't be the first time it's happened. When any party in a coalition is disposable, its relative worth is diminished, and its negotiating leverage is correspondingly undermined.

For her part, Livni has a headache from the fact that YB and Meretz will not sit together in a government. Theoretically she could squeak together 62 MKs from Kadima, Meretz, Labor, Shas, UTJ and Mafdal - but what a mess! Little 3-seated Meretz could bring down her government with the first Charedi demand for yeshiva funding. Meretz will therefore not be in any government, her starting score goes back to 28, and she cannot form a government without Lieberman. Ironically, her weak position could itself be her savior. If Lieberman has done the same math as I have, he will realize this, and know he can ask any price of her, ad chatzi hamalchus. Don't be surprised, therefore, if Lieberman recommends Livni for PM, because he reasons he can get a way better deal out of her than he can with Bibi.

If Lieberman recommends Livni for PM, she will have the votes of the Arabs+Meretz+Labor+YB+Kadima = 71 MKs, and Peres will certainly give her first bite at forming a coalition. Desperate as she is to be in power, she will give Lieberman whatever he wants and form a government of Kadima, YB, Labor, UTJ and Mafdal - 63 MKs. UTJ will be easier to accommodate than Shas, who in any event have bad blood with her.

So now it's Livni who seems to have her nose ahead again! Are we having fun yet? This is just like the Pirate Puzzle; the story goes on!

Now, if Netanyahu is reading this, and realizes that Lieberman could potentially suck the wind out of his sails, he's either going to have to make a better pre-emptive offer to Lieberman (very expensive, knowing how much leverage he already has over Livni), or lock Livni's other potential partners out of her coalition somehow. If he can get either UTJ or Mafdal to bind themselves to him, he can block Livni's coalition. Mafdal is probably the softest target, because they are ideologically closer, and honestly, they don't want Livni to be PM. They would join her government only out of a general misguided desire to influence them for the good, not because they actually want to see yishuvim uprooted or Jerusalem divided C"V. They are also idealists, not power-seekers, so they won't be doing the same game theory analyses that we are currently engaging in. If Netanyahu can just close in on Mafdal and sweet-talk them into declaring publicly that they will have no part in a Livni-led government, then Lieberman would gain nothing by throwing his support behind Livni, and he would only create bad blood with Bibi.

So watch for Mafdal (or maybe UTJ) making any public statements about not joining a Kadima govt. If they do, that's the sign that Bibi has won. If not, watch for Lieberman making a "surprise" endorsement of Livni for PM.

Be a player, not a spectator!

It's been a couple of weeks since the Likud primaries, and most of the dust seems to have settled.

In summary, the Likud membership selected a powerful array of candidates who have declared and demonstrated loyalty to Eretz Yisrael. Only through the dirtiest machinations and abuses of democracy did Netanyahu manage to shunt Moshe Feiglin from 20th place to 36th. At this writing it is still unclear as to whether Michi Ratzon's appeal against his demotion (collateral damage with Feiglin) will bear fruit; either way, Feiglin won a huge moral and PR victory. For a solid week, he was the top news item in Israel; every news agency was filled with interviews and quotations from Feiglin.

And most importantly, once given the opportunity to present his own case, Feiglin was outstanding at winning over people's hearts and minds. Just reading the talkbacks to every article that dealt with him, whether on Haaretz, Ynet or NRG, it was staggering to see what proportion of people support him! Well over 50% of talkbackers have been supportive of Feiglin - and this on the most left-wing of news sites!

I sense that a major sea change has come over Israel. The people are finally getting access to a point of view that to date has been blackballed by the mainstream media - and they like it! It may well be that Moshe Feiglin does not get a seat in the coming Knesset, but this is of secondary importance. What really matters is that the media embargo of Feiglin and his views has been broken, and the people of Israel, when presented with an alternative to the suicidal path of Oslo, "land for peace" etc., are ready for the change.

But it's not going to happen in these elections.

The Israeli Knesset elections of 10 February 2009 are not so much a referendum on the direction of the country, as a vote on which bunch of losers is the least likely to accelerate Israel towards the abyss. Barak, Livni and Netanyahu do not disagree about the paradigm of leadership, only about the price at which they are willing (and desperate) to sell off Israel's strategic and historical assets. Whoever wins these elections, my most likely scenario is that, like the last n governments, the coming one will disintegrate in a matter of 2 years or so.

And that, dear friends, is what we need to start preparing for - now.

When the next government falls, there will be new primaries in the Likud, to choose the leader of the party. Around 100,000 people - the membership of the Likud - have the right to choose what face they will present to the Israeli electorate. Only about 50% of those people actually vote, meaning that 50,000 people will select the prime ministerial candidate and Knesset list, for whom (I'm guessing) roughly 3,000,000 people will have to option to vote.

Let that sink in: about 3,000,000 voters are only entering the political game at the stage when the candidates have already been chosen. If you don't like the options on display, tough noogies - you just gotta hold your nose and vote for the least bad option. Moreover, each individual's vote is a tiny fraction of the total electorate. On the other hand, a mere 100,000 Likud voters are going to have the option of choosing, for the first time in history, a leader of the Likud who is Yarei Shamayim, who believes in the justice of the cause of the Jewish people, who views Jewish history as having started with Avraham Avinu and not Theodore Herzl - and who will be able to lead our nation in the spirit of the Torah.

This is not just a nice-to-have. It's all very well voting for your favorite sectoral party and hoping that they'll be able to influence the government - but while the splinter religious and right-wing parties are bickering and haggling over their little patch of turf, the leadership of Israel is continuing to accelerate our national train towards the precipice of disaster. We are in the midst of a national emergency, and if we are to survive we desperately need leadership, not self-interested kingmakers.

If you really care about the future of Israel, and you really want to make a practical difference to the direction that this country is taking, then stop being a spectator and become a player. Join the Likud. It costs all of 96 NIS a year for a couple, or 64 NIS for one person. You can only vote once you've been a member in good standing for 16 months, so now is the time! If you sign up now, you will be in a position to vote when the next primaries come around... and you will have the power to determine the future of Israel by selecting a worthy leader for Israel's ruling party. With enough like-minded people joining the party, we can realize this dream.

Don't let your yetzer hora start making excuses for you. This is a time for action, and you can be a part of the revolution that will change the face of Israeli leadership.

Click here, print out the form, fill it in and fax it to the number provided.

Eis laasos laShem. Do it now.

Likud Primaries Dilemma

I am wavering on who to vote for in the upcoming Likud primaries.

Obviously I will be supporting Moshe Feiglin and all the other Manhigut Yehudit affiliated candidates. But I have 10 national votes + 1 regional + 1 oleh (I think - pls correct me if I'm wrong), and AFAIK there are only 4 actual MY candidates:

1. Moshe Feiglin
2. Sagiv Asulin (youth)
   
3. Asya Entov (olah)
4. Shmuel Sackett (oleh - competing with Entov? Or is he regional - Yo"sh?)

If you're wondering why there aren't more MY candidates, it's because the remainder of the MY supporter base's votes are being used as trading chips by the MY top brass, in exchange for support from other candidates and their supporters. Thus, for example, MY is supporting Keti Shitreet from Beit Shemesh for the Jerusalem regional slot, and she in turn is punting Feiglin among her supporters (we hope).

This political vote-bartering is pretty much what used to happen in the Likud merkaz, when that body used to select the Knesset list. Now that it's in the hands of the party rank and file, our votes are going to be a lot harder to control.

This, I think, is especially so in Manhigut Yehudit, where the membership by its very nature is very independently minded and doesn't just do because it's told to. An example of this is the little brouhaha caused by the Keti Shitreet deal, which has alienated Freddy Moncharsh, a longstanding and dedicated MY activist who had previously announced his intention to compete for the Jerusalem spot. I'm not going to get into the politics of who said what, who's in the right and who backstabbed whom - it is sufficient to note that we in the Jerusalem region now have a choice of voting for, inter alia, a non-MY person who has the endorsement of the MY top brass, or a MY person whom we know shares our values and will promote them in the Knesset.

I expect there will be similar conflicts of interest surfacing before Dec 8. I doubt MY will do any deals with the likes of Dan Meridor or Asaf Hefetz, but it is entirely probably that they will support mediocre candidates and not come to terms with top class people like Benny Begin and Moshe Yaalon. I'd like to vote my conscience, but then I also don't want to undermine MY's bargaining ability next time around, if people realize that they don't have any control over their voting members.

Another little complication - Rambam in Hilchos Melachim states clearly what the criteria are for appointing someone to public office: male Jews-from-birth who are shomer Torah umitzvos. I'd love to vote for Ayub Kara, given his almost embarassingly vehement pro-Jewish, pro-Eretz Yisrael views - but he's not even Jewish! I'm not sure just how frum Begin and Yaalon are, and Asya Entov is a woman. I don't even know if there are 10 candidates competing who meet Rambam's qualifications!

I'd love to hear what you think, even if you're not a Likud member. Please leave your comments!