Rafi asks a great question:
My answer is not that Moshe Kachlon isn't smart or talented. It's that Binyamin Netanyahu is extremely smart (he reportedly has an IQ of 180), and knows how to plan for the future.
First up, let's rewind a few years to before the previous elections, and put ourselves into the shoes of a genius-intelligence Prime Minister. You look at the polls and conclude that you're going to sort-of win the coming elections, but be stuck with yet another scrappy coalition. Every election it's the same thing: some new one-hit-wonder party claims to represent the disaffected "center", "middle class", or whatever, and walks off with a chunk of swing seats that is big enough to make or break a coalition. This time it's Yair Lapid. Last time it was Olmert with Kadima. Before him was Tommy Lapid and Shinui. And all of them come with their demands that you simply cannot ignore when drawing up your coalition agreement. Wouldn't it be nice if for once, just once, the new kid on the block turned out to be someone who is ideologically aligned with you, and will actually play nicely once he's in government?
Hmm... thinks... what if, what if... what if I had to prepare already now for the election after this one? I'll have to make do with a coalition with Lapid this time around... but why not prepare the ground already for next time, and have someone friendly lined up, ready to take the swing votes? But who? Someone popular, someone whom I can trust... wait! What about... Moshe Kachlon? We'll have him resign gracefully from politics for the time being... make noises about how we regret his decision and hope he'll reconsider... and then next election, he can start his own party, ride on the his popularity that we'll cryogenically freeze now... and he can take the regular 15-20 seats reserved for the flavor-of-the-season "centrist" party... and then yesh lanu esek! No more need to lean on whiny, treacherous coalition partners... at last we will have a stable government!
So what do you think of this benign conspiracy theory? Here are some backup facts: Moshe Kachlon is a stalwart Likudnik, whose economic and social views to date have been very much in line with Netanyahu's. He's not your typical "centrist"; in fact, he was one of the 13 Likud loyalists who voted against the Disengagement.
If I'm right, Kachlon will be given a very senior position in the coming coalition. And as to the point Rafi raised that he will disappear into obscurity at the next elections - that's only if he doesn't merge his party into the Likud, and grab a spot at the top there.
But then what will be with the next election? Who will grab the "center" vote if Moshe Kachlon is tainted by his return to the Likud?
Why, Gidon Saar, of course...
If Moshe Kachlon is so smart and talented, and I think he probably is, along with charismatic and dynamic with leadership abilities, why is he starting a new party?I was originally going to answer in the comments on his blog, but the more I thought about it, the more I figure the answer deserves a blog entry of its own.
I mean, doesn't he see how all these new parties were basically one-time wonders and then faded into obscurity? even the most successful of them all, Kadima, barely made it through two elections.. why does he think his party will be any different? He should have stayed with the Likud.
The worst part of it is that a guy like Kachlon, and the big names who I am sure will be on his list, will soon fade into obscurity just like those all before him, and that would be such a loss to the political system.
My answer is not that Moshe Kachlon isn't smart or talented. It's that Binyamin Netanyahu is extremely smart (he reportedly has an IQ of 180), and knows how to plan for the future.
First up, let's rewind a few years to before the previous elections, and put ourselves into the shoes of a genius-intelligence Prime Minister. You look at the polls and conclude that you're going to sort-of win the coming elections, but be stuck with yet another scrappy coalition. Every election it's the same thing: some new one-hit-wonder party claims to represent the disaffected "center", "middle class", or whatever, and walks off with a chunk of swing seats that is big enough to make or break a coalition. This time it's Yair Lapid. Last time it was Olmert with Kadima. Before him was Tommy Lapid and Shinui. And all of them come with their demands that you simply cannot ignore when drawing up your coalition agreement. Wouldn't it be nice if for once, just once, the new kid on the block turned out to be someone who is ideologically aligned with you, and will actually play nicely once he's in government?
Hmm... thinks... what if, what if... what if I had to prepare already now for the election after this one? I'll have to make do with a coalition with Lapid this time around... but why not prepare the ground already for next time, and have someone friendly lined up, ready to take the swing votes? But who? Someone popular, someone whom I can trust... wait! What about... Moshe Kachlon? We'll have him resign gracefully from politics for the time being... make noises about how we regret his decision and hope he'll reconsider... and then next election, he can start his own party, ride on the his popularity that we'll cryogenically freeze now... and he can take the regular 15-20 seats reserved for the flavor-of-the-season "centrist" party... and then yesh lanu esek! No more need to lean on whiny, treacherous coalition partners... at last we will have a stable government!
So what do you think of this benign conspiracy theory? Here are some backup facts: Moshe Kachlon is a stalwart Likudnik, whose economic and social views to date have been very much in line with Netanyahu's. He's not your typical "centrist"; in fact, he was one of the 13 Likud loyalists who voted against the Disengagement.
If I'm right, Kachlon will be given a very senior position in the coming coalition. And as to the point Rafi raised that he will disappear into obscurity at the next elections - that's only if he doesn't merge his party into the Likud, and grab a spot at the top there.
But then what will be with the next election? Who will grab the "center" vote if Moshe Kachlon is tainted by his return to the Likud?
Why, Gidon Saar, of course...
2 comments:
Ehhh-xcellent.
/Burns
And it lets Bibi jump ship to a more welcoming party when a new head of party is chosen in January.
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