Political predictions

Mr 180 IQ shows his mettle

Please allow me the opportunity to gloat a bit. Today's political bombshell came as a huge surprise to most of the world, but not to me. I regret now that I never wrote it on my blog, but I have witnesses that I've been calling this practically since the results came out of the previous election.  This situation whereby the largest party in the Knesset constitutes less than a quarter thereof, and therefore it will be minority even within its own coalition, is utterly ridiculous.  The big parties know this, and despite their other political differences, they have one confluence of interests, which is the reform of the electoral system such that 3- or 4-seat splinter, sectoral-interest parties are either eliminated or neutered.  I predicted that 6 months to a year before the next elections came due, Netanyahu (with his estimated 180 IQ) should have enough sense and foresight to band together with Labor/Kadima/Yisrael Beiteinu (or whatever configuration thereof would get him a Knesset majority) and in one signal act, they would jointly nail the smaller parties and institute a major electoral reform to benefit the mainstream parties, before dissolving the Knesset and going to elections under the new rules.  When all this talk started about dissolving the Knesset already and going to new elections, I was sorely disappointed.  And then this morning - I was vindicated!  Bibi has been listening to me all along, and this whole spiel about going to elections now was just a clever ruse to catch everyone else off guard.  A brilliant ploy, indeed.

Mofaz - is he really a winner from this?

Now let's look forward.  Today everyone is lauding this as the largest coalition in Israel's history.  Personally, I don't give it a month in this configuration.  The main "official" reason given for Kadima entering the government at this point is to draft a replacement to the Tal Law, which gave automatic exemption from conscription to Charedim, and effectively prevented anyone who didn't go to the army from getting a legal job.  The other, less touted reason is, as I mentioned above, is electoral reform.  Other than that, there is very little in common between the main coalition partners - from security to social policy, Kadima (at least under Livni) was reflexively opposed to anything the Likud said or did.  Even assuming they have no actual principles other than the pursuit of power, and being in government is currently in their interests, they are not going to give an easy rubber stamp to anything Bibi wants, because they need to distinguish themselves before the next scheduled elections, and somehow do something that will reverse their current abysmal showing in the polls.  If they go quietly to the next elections as acquiescent enablers for Bibi, Labor will eat them alive.  They will have to manufacture some "principled" reason to walk out of the coalition before the next election. Which makes Bibi's pre-condition to Mofaz that Kadima will stay in the coalition to the bitter end all the more ingenious.  If Mofaz complies, without achieving anything for the Left, Labor will have him for breakfast.  If Bibi plays his cards right, he will keep Mofaz on a short leash, but not violate any of today's agreements, so if Mofaz decides in 9 months' time to bolt the coalition for some contrived reason, he will look like a whiner who doesn't honor agreements.  Granted that this is still a better scenario for Mofaz than going to elections now, but still his only hope is that in the next year Bibi gives him substantial grounds for quitting the government on principle and looking like a hero.  And Bibi has a 180 IQ.

Now, given that Kadima and Likud's only real shared interests are (a) replacing the Tal Law, and (b) electoral reform, where is that going to leave the smaller parties in the coalition?  Mafdal (Bayit Yehudi) might be game for a new Tal Law, but Shas will squirm and UTJ will vehemently oppose any change to the current situation, whereby Charedim are prevented by social pressure from joining the army, and therefore by law from joining the workforce, which leaves them no alternative but to stay in the Beis Midrash (and incidentally, in near-guaranteed lifelong poverty).  And as for electoral reform, which is totally against their interests, all of them will try to block anything new.  But now, with Kadima in the coalition, Netanyahu can (and probably will) simply throw them out, and railroad the electoral reform without them.

Nachal Charedi soldiers

Once the Tal Law replacement and electoral reform have been legislated, I believe the coalition with Kadima will have served its purpose.  Being that Likud and Kadima are such bitter rivals, the coalition will anyway be unmanageable, and for Netanyahu's next trick, he will dissolve the Knesset then and there, catching everyone else flat-footed.  He will look like a genius, having deftly manipulated Kadima in and out of his government, Mofaz might be able to claim some credit for showing some national responsibility, and the small parties will get the short end of the stick.  The next government, led again by Likud, might even get an outright majority, once the right-wing splinter parties realize their interests will best be served by joining up with the Likud.

All in all, kudos to Netanyahu for bringing about what I think will be a very significant and beneficial shakeup to the Israeloi political landscape.