Needed: a clear Haredi majority in Beit Shemesh

Just stam a picture of some random Haredim
because I like pictures in my blog posts.
Credit: Wiki Commons

That's a deliberately provocative headline, and I mean it--but not for the usual reasons.

Let's take a couple of steps back. We're currently less than two weeks before local council election day, which in Beit Shemesh pits incumbent mayor Moshe Abutbul against challengers Aliza Bloch and Malachi someone-or-other. The fundamentals of the debate are as follows: the Bloch camp claims that Abutbul has done a bad job as mayor, and she will do better; the Abutbul camp claims that he is Haredi and the Gedolim say you must therefore vote for him. And the third guy says something, I think.

I'm not going to bother with analyzing the Bloch camp's arguments, because there are many points to be made in both directions, and it is a fair matter for debate whether Bloch would be a better mayor than Abutbul. Abutbul's claims, however, are incontrovertible: he is verifiably Haredi, and I have no reason to believe he's lying about the endorsements he claims to have received from all the senior Rabbonim that the Haredi community cares about. To simplify it further: Bloch is appealing to voters' reason, while Abutbul is appealing to their identity. And identity always trumps reason, in terms of persuasion.

Incumbent mayor Moshe Abutbul
Credit: Times of Israel

My prediction, therefore, is for an Abutbul landslide, with a victory margin of around 10%. The Haredi community is the most disciplined voting bloc in the country (and possibly in the world), and with few exceptions (notably including the Anglo-Haredi sector), once given their marching orders, they will turn out in force and vote as they have been instructed.

This situation is profoundly saddening to me, not because of the likely outcome, but because the election will be decided on tribalism rather than issues. That's not a good thing for a democratic society. But it will continue this way, election after election, as long as the non-Haredi sector keeps putting up candidates who are inherently doomed to fail.

But it's not all bad news. At some point, perhaps even in five years' time, the non-Haredi sector will give up, thus firmly establishing Beit Shemesh as a Haredi-controlled city. At that point, only Haredi candidates will be viable. Consequently, there will be nothing to compete about in terms of tribal identity, which is the most important area to the dominant voting bloc. What's left? They'll actually have to compete on real issues. Wow.

Good news for the Jews!
Credit: Times of Israel

It gets better. Up till now, in a straight Haredi vs non-Haredi fight, the Haredi bloc has actively alienated and even demonized the non-Haredi sector, and vice versa. That's not good for anybody. But once the battle is between only Haredi candidates, the monolithic Haredi vote breaks down, and suddenly the non-Haredi voters become the kingmakers. The candidates will have to court the non-Haredi vote. The mayor will have to deliver for the non-Haredi community. Counter-intuitively, once the city is Haredi-dominated, the non-Haredi residents will wield disproportionate power.

My purpose in writing this is not to convince anyone to vote differently. You should vote for whoever you think is the best candidate. But when Abutbul wins handily, don't lose heart. The bigger his victory margin, the better for all of us, because only when we learn to accept and live with the new reality, that Beit Shemesh is a Haredi-majority city, do we have a chance of moving past tribalism and into meritocracy.