Silent Thunder

Aliza Bloch (credit: Arutz 7)

I posted a couple weeks ago my prediction that Moshe Abutbul would win by a landslide. And  I was wrong, big time. At this writing, it's a cliffhanger, with Aliza Bloch looking likely to win once absentee ballots are counted.

So, analysis time. Where did I go wrong? My prediction was based on the persuasion principle, that calls to identity are more effective than reasoning. Bloch was campaigning based on her claims that the current management was incompetent and she would do a better job, while Abutbul simply played the "Daas Torah" card, i.e. "I am Haredi and if you are Haredi you must vote for me because the Gedolim say so." I saw that argument as basically irrefutable, and once it was set in stone that it was now a mitzva to vote for Abutbul, he could not lose; no True Believer could vote for Bloch with a clear conscience.

And that was my mistake. I thought there were only two options: Abutbul or Bloch. But there was a third option: simply to stay at home.

(credit: Times of Israel)

My first clue that this was happening came while I was counting votes at a station in the Haredi suburb of Heftziba. The vote count was 367 for Abutbul and 8 for Bloch. That doesn't look very impressive, until you look at the turnout: there were about 780 registered voters in that precinct. For an area that usually turns out 70-80% or more, when you get under 50% of your voters showing up, on a public holiday, and 65% of the rest of the city came to have their say, that's not apathy; that's a protest.

On the one hand, I can still claim a modicum of rightness in my original assessment; the vast majority of Haredim in Beit Shemesh would not actively disobey the instructions they were told emanated from their religious leaders by voting for the other candidate. But the simmering discontent, while not actually bubbling over, translated into a massive, passive no-show, which I contend was the single biggest factor in Bloch's victory. Look at the numbers, extrapolated from my polling station: had the 50% turnout been 75% instead, that's an increase of 50% of Abutbul's votes. So say what you want about maybe a couple thousand Haredim who voted for Bloch, or about a genuinely great get-out-the-vote effort from Bloch's team in the rest of Beit Shemesh; if those 25% of Haredi voters who were supposed to have been in Abutbul's pocket had shown up, that would have been at least an extra 10,000 votes for Abutbul, and a landslide.

(credit: PhysicsWorld.com)

Let that sink in. Ten thousand protest no-shows. That is what I call silent thunder. And the message, as I read it, is twofold. First, it is a stinging slap in the face to the askanim who regard the Haredi population as their obedient foot soldiers who will do their bidding unquestioningly. It says, "We are not yet ready for outright rebellion. But if you try to shove your decisions down our throats, and you don't provide us with the services we deserve, then you are asking too much."

Second, it is an implicit probation for Aliza Bloch. It says, "Don't expect us to be excited about you becoming mayor. We let you win, and you have a chance to prove yourself over the next five years. Do good, and we will let you win again; maybe we'll even support you. But beware: if you put a foot out of line, we will flick you like a fly out of the mayor's office."

Personally, I don't know if I've ever been happier to be wrong. I wish Mayor Bloch wisdom, understanding, blessing and every success in her new job, and hope she will over-perform so much  that in five years' time, even the Daas Torah thumpers will be behind her.

Congratulations, and good luck!

(credit: Times of Israel)

Needed: a clear Haredi majority in Beit Shemesh

Just stam a picture of some random Haredim
because I like pictures in my blog posts.
Credit: Wiki Commons

That's a deliberately provocative headline, and I mean it--but not for the usual reasons.

Let's take a couple of steps back. We're currently less than two weeks before local council election day, which in Beit Shemesh pits incumbent mayor Moshe Abutbul against challengers Aliza Bloch and Malachi someone-or-other. The fundamentals of the debate are as follows: the Bloch camp claims that Abutbul has done a bad job as mayor, and she will do better; the Abutbul camp claims that he is Haredi and the Gedolim say you must therefore vote for him. And the third guy says something, I think.

I'm not going to bother with analyzing the Bloch camp's arguments, because there are many points to be made in both directions, and it is a fair matter for debate whether Bloch would be a better mayor than Abutbul. Abutbul's claims, however, are incontrovertible: he is verifiably Haredi, and I have no reason to believe he's lying about the endorsements he claims to have received from all the senior Rabbonim that the Haredi community cares about. To simplify it further: Bloch is appealing to voters' reason, while Abutbul is appealing to their identity. And identity always trumps reason, in terms of persuasion.

Incumbent mayor Moshe Abutbul
Credit: Times of Israel

My prediction, therefore, is for an Abutbul landslide, with a victory margin of around 10%. The Haredi community is the most disciplined voting bloc in the country (and possibly in the world), and with few exceptions (notably including the Anglo-Haredi sector), once given their marching orders, they will turn out in force and vote as they have been instructed.

This situation is profoundly saddening to me, not because of the likely outcome, but because the election will be decided on tribalism rather than issues. That's not a good thing for a democratic society. But it will continue this way, election after election, as long as the non-Haredi sector keeps putting up candidates who are inherently doomed to fail.

But it's not all bad news. At some point, perhaps even in five years' time, the non-Haredi sector will give up, thus firmly establishing Beit Shemesh as a Haredi-controlled city. At that point, only Haredi candidates will be viable. Consequently, there will be nothing to compete about in terms of tribal identity, which is the most important area to the dominant voting bloc. What's left? They'll actually have to compete on real issues. Wow.

Good news for the Jews!
Credit: Times of Israel

It gets better. Up till now, in a straight Haredi vs non-Haredi fight, the Haredi bloc has actively alienated and even demonized the non-Haredi sector, and vice versa. That's not good for anybody. But once the battle is between only Haredi candidates, the monolithic Haredi vote breaks down, and suddenly the non-Haredi voters become the kingmakers. The candidates will have to court the non-Haredi vote. The mayor will have to deliver for the non-Haredi community. Counter-intuitively, once the city is Haredi-dominated, the non-Haredi residents will wield disproportionate power.

My purpose in writing this is not to convince anyone to vote differently. You should vote for whoever you think is the best candidate. But when Abutbul wins handily, don't lose heart. The bigger his victory margin, the better for all of us, because only when we learn to accept and live with the new reality, that Beit Shemesh is a Haredi-majority city, do we have a chance of moving past tribalism and into meritocracy.

Two Beit Shemeshes, not on speaking terms

Municipal elections are less than a week away.  For me, they can't be over soon enough.

There have not been, to the best of my knowledge, any truly scientific polls to indicate who will be crowned the Mayor of Beit Shemesh come next Wednesday.  All we know is, it's close.  And we know one other thing: whoever wins Tuesday's election, around half of the city will be jubilant and throwing street parties, and the other half utterly dejected, bitter and resentful.

The thing that has characterized this election campaign the most has been the polarization, the rift in our community, the anger, the hatred, even violence.  From both sides.  And I say that not just to seem even-handed - I've seen and heard people arguing for and against both Eli Cohen and Moshe Abutbul, with fury and venom like I have never seen in them before.  Laws of loshon hora, rechilus, motzi shem ra, nezikin - even Shemiras Shabbos - out the window!   And there is almost nobody in the "undecided" category.  I've never seen anything like this before: nearly everyone I know is vociferously and unswervingly committed to their candidate.  I have not yet had a conversation with anyone who was wavering between the two!  I've witnessed way too many heated exchanges between the two camps, and not one case of anyone changing their mind.  Perhaps the undecideds are afraid to let themselves be known, lest they be set upon by one or the other faction... but I don't know, because they're not saying, and I don't even know if they exist.

This schism in our town truly breaks my heart.  In the end, we're all going to carry on with our lives, and we're going to have to live with our friends and neighbors who voted for the other guy.

Casting my mind back 5 years ago to the previous election, it wasn't like this.  Sure, there was plenty of electoral tension, but it wasn't about Haredim versus Everybody Else.  Moshe Abutbul had plenty backing from secular and traditional parties and communities, which is why he won the election.  And Shalom Lerner was backed by the faction of UTJ that is now the "Koach" party.  When Abutbul won, sure Lerner's supporters were upset, but not so grievously that they contemplated moving out of the city.

What happened?  How is it that in the space of 5 years, our city has fractured neatly down the line: Haredim (with the notable exception of the Tov party) are solidly behind Abutbul, while everyone else is voting Cohen?  It's an important question to ask, because this in itself is probably the most burning issue concerning Beit Shemesh: the relationship between the various sectors of the population.

I was having a discussion recently with an Abutbul supporter, who was earnestly rattling off an impressive list of the achievements over the last 5 years, that benefited everyone, not just Haredim, and he was getting immensely frustrated that people just refused to see the truth of the situation.  I guess he didn't learn Stephen Covey's 5th Habit: Seek to understand, then to be understood.  Did you every ask yourself why, despite everything you've said, the city has split into two practically warring factions?  If you're going to claim that the opening of a bowling alley (a private business initiative) is to the credit of the mayor, then you're also going to have to "credit" the mayor with bringing the relationships between Haredim and Everyone Else to the nadir they are at now: where anti-Cohen ads use Holocaust imagery (implicitly calling Cohen a Nazi), and non-Haredim are openly talking about leaving the city if Abutbul is re-elected.

He answered me: it's just fear.  I wholeheartedly agree.  And I think the same is true for the other side.  The shrill tenor of this whole campaign is because both sides are driven by a wild, visceral fear that the other guy might win and destroy everything for "us" (whoever "we" might be).  But it's not a full equivalence.  The Haredi camp is afraid of Cohen, because he's unknown, is alleged to have connections with the Great Satan (Yair Lapid) and the Little Satan (Naftali Bennett), and he's threatening the benign reign of their patron Moshe Abutbul.  The non-Haredi camp is afraid of Abutbul, because he's known, and whatever explanation you may proffer, they have seen him in action for the past 5 years, and they emphatically do not want a repeat performance.  Do you really want to understand why every non-Haredi party, plus Tov, quit the coalition?  Ask them!  Do you really want to understand why almost every non-Haredi voter who voted Abutbul 5 years ago, is now dreading the prospect that he might be re-elected?  Ask them!

I am certain that Moshe Abutbul is a very good man, and he is totally dedicated to doing the best he can.  But whether intentionally or not, his tenure as mayor has been exceptionally divisive, and bred extremism and hatred between different sectors of the Jewish people.  The results are undeniable: we are a city of two factions, not on speaking terms - and that is the greatest tragedy imaginable.  The fact that this happened on his watch is a gross failure, an offence warranting dismissal.  However much he may have done on paper, whatever endorsements he may bring, whoever tells me "Daas Torah", and however much of a good, sweet and kind person he may be, I cannot vote for Moshe Abutbul.

Many of my friends and neighbors have come to me gushing with effusive praise for Eli Cohen.  He sounds like a good guy, though his marketing is appalling.  I wish I could share their enthusiasm for him, but I don't.  But I will give him my vote on Tuesday, because the only thing I am sure of is that Beit Shemesh needs a new mayor, just to give us some chance of healing.

Perhaps, like me, you are disillusioned and distressed by the tsunami of sin'as chinam that has engulfed our beautiful city, and know that it cannot be allowed to continue in this path - but for whatever reason you cannot bring yourself to vote for Eli Cohen.  I can understand that.  But then, please, don't actively lend a hand to deepening the rift in our society.  Don't vote.  Or vote with a "white slip".  Make that your protest.

And even if you do vote for Abutbul, I still love you, and I'll still be your loyal friend and neighbor.