Don't mess with a programmer

One of the benefits of working for a large and successful multinational company is that they tend to give their employees a lot of free merch. 

So today I went onto our corporate partner website to place an order for yet another branded T-shirt celebrating our latest software release. Having selected my desired size, I then moved on to the shipping info. And here were the options presented to me for "state" (i.e. region):

This is not cool. I take a very dim view of some woke activist somewhere in the USA trying to use an innocuous business transaction to advance a controversial political agenda.

So, naturally I lodged a complaint with management. But I wanted my merch, anyway. And I refused on principle to fill in my address with the option supplied. So, I didn't.

I created a monster

image credit: conradbrunstrom.wordpress.com

In 2014, I created a monster.

I wrote a work of viral fake-news, completely unintentionally.

I'm not going to retell the story; you can follow the link above for that. But since then, my "Bibi speech" has been resurrected and gone viral again twice - in 2019 and now, in 2021. And, moreover, it's been translated into Spanish and Russian (though I haven't seen it in Hebrew yet). I even got a mention on Snopes!

I feel a kind of guilty pride about this. I mean, I wasn't specifically intending for my openly fictional prose to get copypasta'd and circulated as if it were real. But the fact is, it clearly touched and resonated with a huge number of people, who were inspired to forward it to an average of eight hundred of their closest friends (I may be approximating here, but then, it's well documented that 84% of all statistics are invented on the spot). It seems that every time Israel goes into yet another round of fighting with Hamas, my monster, seemingly of its own volition, creaks open the top of its coffin, lurches out into cyberspace, and storms around the world, now in multiple languages.

I don't have much more to say about this story, because I'm still processing the meaning of it all, and with the current situation and my personal responsibilities, I don't really have time to wax lyrical.

I will, however, take advantage of the attention I'm receiving to post a brief commercial message: 

If you enjoyed my writing, there's more of it. I've written a pretty darn good novel, plus a few short stories. Go and get some of the free stuff here.

I also write speeches for the Prime Minister of Israel. Hey, it's his problem if he doesn't want to use them...

Twitter and Facebook are worthy adversaries - don't regulate them!

There's always been a suspicion, occasionally backed up by anecdotal evidence, that the social media giants Twitter and Facebook have been skewing the balance of power in public discourse toward the Left, by "shadowbanning", censoring right-leaning posts, and occasionally even banning conservative users for seemingly minor infractions, while taking no action against similar or worse offences from people on the Left.

Lately, it seems they've thrown away all pretence of even-handedness: Twitter, in particular, has been taking down account after account of conservative commentators, even placing a "call to violence" warning on President Trump's pledge to enforce the law on mobs of anarchists and arsonists.

There will never be an “Autonomous Zone” in Washington, D.C., as long as I’m your President. If they try they will be met with serious force!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 23, 2020

And, on the Facebook side, Project Veritas recently released an exposé of systemic anti-Right bias in Facebook.

On the other side, woke activists are doxxing anyone they can, shaming, boycotting, and getting people fired wherever they can - with no consequences, even for completely fabricated accusations. Forgiveness for past offences is extended only to public figures who now identify with the Left (e.g. Jimmy Kimmel), and the slightest apostasy is a cardinal sin (e.g. JK Rowling).

This has led to many calls from people on the Right to regulate social media, to ensure that their narrative is not censored by unaccountable activists from the Left.

Let me state unequivocally: I am opposed to regulating social media. And I think it is rank hypocrisy from the supposed believers in the free market, suddenly to recant their principles and call for government to get involved in this issue.

Last I checked, Facebook and Twitter were independent corporations, beholden only to the law of the land. They are not public property, and their owners are free to do with them as they see fit. Jack Dorsey and Mark Zuckerberg are brilliant people, who built up hugely successful corporations by harnessing the power of the masses. And, so it appears now, they have chosen to weaponize their corporations in this election year, in the cause of unseating Donald Trump.

And it is 100% their right to do so. Try to understand this: a very large percentage of the Left views Trump as Hitler. If you were a German in the 1930's, and you ran a corporation with the power of Twitter or Facebook, wouldn't you see it as your civic and moral duty to turn the full force of your organization to removing Hitler from power?

Now, of course, the people on the Right who disagree with this view of Trump are deeply offended by it, and feel utterly betrayed and used by these corporations. But the fact remains: when you signed up on their platforms, you agreed to operate on their terms. (That was in the small print you didn't bother to read when you checked "I Agree".) And if their terms turn out to include discrimination against conservative views, well, sorry, but that's part of the deal.

And I say to Twitter and Facebook: Well played. You have been beating us conservatives, fair and square, and I salute you as worthy adversaries.

So what is the conservative world to do?

Firstly, dry your tears. Stop being snowflakes complaining about systemic bias, and accept it as fact. Now, adjust your strategies accordingly. If you want a platform to express yourself without fear of cancellation, try Locals or Parler. But these platforms lack the reach (for now) that Twitter and Facebook have. So, if you want to take advantage of these platforms' massive audiences, then play by their rules. Yes, you will be fighting uphill - but that's the lie of the land right now. The enemy has the high ground, and you now have to come up with new tactics to deal with this situation.

It's not my place to offer any specific suggestions of tactics; I'm not a social media strategist; I'm not even American. But your battle is important to me, because America is the greatest bastion of freedom in the world, and I am deeply troubled by the way it appears to be crumbling under an anarchist/Marxist/Alinskyite assault, tacitly supported by a major political party.

God bless you for fighting the good fight, on behalf of the rest of the free world.

The committee to eliminate unsafe language

"Thank you for joining me here at such short notice," said Emma. All of the heads around the table nodded acknowledgement, except for the two that the others were pretending not to notice.

"As you all know," Emma continued, "GitHub has announced that they will henceforth be changing the name of their primary code branch from 'master' to 'main', in order to avoid using racially-charged language." She paused for effect. "I think we can all agree that this puts us under a lot of pressure."

Brett looked confused. "Why is that? Isn't that, like, a good thing?"

Emma rolled her eyes. "Try to keep up, Brett. GitHub are a bunch of nerds and geeks. How does it look if they're more woke than us artists?"

"Yeah", agreed Kylie. "We gotta do something about that."

"Exactly!" Emma slapped her hand on the table. "We need to go up a level. We need to identify and root out all the racist, sexist, and other offensive terms in everyday language. And we need it by six o' clock today."

"Why so soon?" asked Brett. 

"Because that's the deadline for today's news cycle at my station," said Emma, with a condescending smile. "If we leave it longer, it'll lose its impact in relation to the GitHub story. Dustin, you can get this into your news site by tonight, too, right? Ok, so let's get started. What words can you think of that might offend someone?"

Brett swore.

"Wassa matter, Brett?" said Kylie.

"Nothing," said Brett. "Just, you asked what words might offend someone, so I said that word."

Emma slammed the table with her fist. "Jesus, you privileged s----for-brains douchebag, we're looking for words that might offend minorities!"

"I got one," said Dustin. "'Supermarket'. It evokes the days when Black slaves were sold like cattle in a market. We should remove that word from our language, and instead call it a 'store', or a 'superstore'."

"Good, good," mumbled Emma, making notes on her iPad. "What else?"

"How about 'manual'?" suggested Kylie. "People always tell you to 'read the f--- manual'. It's so, like, mansplaining, and it's like a dog whistle for sexists."

"Um...the word 'manual' is from the Latin for 'hand'...it's got nothing to do with men," ventured Brett hesitantly. "I know this, coz I did Latin for my Literature major."

"Yeah, like the Romans weren't a male-dominant society of slave-owners?!" countered Kylie. "We shouldn't use any terms that come from their oppressive language!"

"That would be...like...the whole English--"

But Brett's reply was cut off by Dustin. "I'm offended by the term 'family'. It has historical connotations of suppression of LGBTQ people, and imposition of binary gender options. We should rather call it a 'loving unit', or, like, come up with a new term that conveys this, like, 'lovunit'."

A hush fell over the room for a few seconds, aside from a faint slurping sound coming from the corner that everyone else was steadfastly trying to ignore. "Dustin...that is absolutely genius!" exclaimed Emma. "This will be totally transformative of our whole society! Out with 'families'; in with 'lovunits'!"

"Yeah!" exclaimed Kylie. "I'm gonna write my next song about that!"

"Let's see those privileged geeks at GitHub top this!"

There was a general chorus of approval and excitement. With the wind in their sails, the team set to work, compiling a formidable collection of words to be eliminated from the English lexicon, including "police", "mail", and "trump". 

Brett looked over the fruits of their labor proudly. "This is going to be the most awesome blacklist, like, ever!"

An awkward silence ensued. Emma, Dustin, and Kylie were staring at Brett with looks of horror and revulsion.

"What?" said Brett. "Did I say something wrong?"

Emma's face curled into a snarl. "Get. Out. Of. Here. You...racist!"

Brett turned white and jumped to his feet. "No! I'm not a racist! I love black people! Really!"

"OUT!" screeched Emma, also on her feet now. Brett looked to Dustin and Kylie for support, but found none in their angry scowls. Head bowed, he slowly shuffled out the door.

In the silence that followed, Dustin shot a furtive, awkward look at the two people who had not yet participated in the discussion, then spoke up. "I just have to say, Heather, I am right now finding your body language very threatening."

Heather pulled her lips away from Trevon's with a loud sucking sound. When Trevon tried to re-engage, she touched her finger playfully to his nose. "Not now, honey, they're talking to me."

Trevon looked at the other people in the room, as if he had just noticed them now. "Oh, hey guys."

Heather turned to Dustin. "Did you say something to me?"

Dustin lowered his eyes to the table and flushed red. "I said, I am right now finding your body language very threatening."

Heather's face dropped. "Oh, hey, Dustin, I'm so sorry; I really didn't mean anything. I should have realized my hetero PDA would be offensive to you because you're gay."

"I'm not gay," said Dustin sheepishly. "I just...broke up with my girlfriend a week ago, and I'm feeling...sensitive about it."

"You're not gay?" exclaimed Emma, aghast. "Damn, and I thought you were so cool. Well, even if we don't have a gay, at least we have a person of color here in this focus group." She turned to Trevon with a saccharine-sweet smile. "Trevon, I'm so happy Heather brought you. What do you think of our list of unacceptable vocabulary? When you think about a world without all these threatening terms, does it make you feel more..safe? More respected?"

Trevon hesitated. "Well...I wasn't really..." He glanced at his watch. "Oh s---, is that the time?!" he exclaimed, leaping to his feet. "Stupid f--- n---! I'm gonna be late for my nuclear physics class!" And still cursing himself loudly, he charged across the room and disappeared through the door.

The four remaining people looked at each other.

"So," said Emma. "We're on for six o' clock release, then?"

Elections Take 2: Game Theory analysis

It's election time, take 2. For those who have joined us late, here's a TL;DR of the situation:

Aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!

Ok, here's a little more detail:

Israel had elections on 9 April 2019. Even though the "right wing" bloc had comfortably enough seats to form a government, Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu) decided that he would not sit in any government with the Haredi parties. His 5 seats were required for a majority, so Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu could not form a coalition without involving parties to his left, and none of those parties were interested. So rather than allowing Benny Gantz of Kachol Lavan (Blue & White) to have a chance at forming a coalition, Netanyahu had the 21st Knesset dissolve itself, and new elections were called for 17 September.

Netanyahu was hoping that the outcome of the next election will make it easier for him to form a coalition. So, how's that working out so far? As it turns out, very well for Liberman, not so well for Netanyahu. As always, Israel is obsessed with polls, of which several get published every week. For the purposes of this discussion, I'll work with the poll showing the most optimistic numbers from Netanyahu's perspective, which I lifted off the Yisrael Hayom website:

Credit: Yisrael Hayom

This Channel 12 poll from 3 August shows Netanyahu with a total of 57 seats, if you exclude Yisrael Beitenu. And as I said, that's the most optimistic one for him. If the polls are accurate, Netanyahu still has no path to a right-wing coalition, unless Liberman suddenly decides that he's willing to climb down from his anti-Haredi tree. And why should he, seeing as his hardline stand seems to have literally doubled his support? No, Liberman has found what he thinks is a winning formula, and he will stick with it.

What about Gantz? Could he form a centre/left coalition? Here the answer is an even clearer No. His problem is the hate map among his prospective partners. It's like this: The Democratic Camp (heir to Meretz) won't sit with the Haredim. Nor will Liberman. And if there's anyone Liberman hates more than the Haredim, it's the Arabs. And even if he could be persuaded to sit with the Arabs, the United Arab List is too stuck in their anti-Zionist rejectionism, and under their current leadership, will not join any Israeli government. Gantz's optimal non-conflicting coalition is B&W, Labour, Shas, and UTJ, for a grand total of 50 seats. It's not happening for him.

So, back to Netanyahu - how else could he form a coalition? Well, logically speaking, if he can't do it with parties to his right, then he'll have to turn to his left. He has two realistic options here: B&W and Labour. Each has its advantages and disadvantages.

B&W is closer to Likud politically than Labour. A Likud/B&W coalition could potentially form a government without involving any smaller parties. If they need to bring in anyone else, Ayelet Shaked would be the obvious choice. Not Liberman, because I suspect Netanyahu would want to punish him for getting us all into the mess in the first place. Plus, he's shown himself to be an unreliable coalition partner in the past.

The biggest problem with B&W is that they will come with a big asking price, most likely a rotation deal for Prime Minister. And Netanyahu most certainly does not want to give up his job. That will be a deal breaker, in my opinion.

Labour, on the other hand, has embarrassingly little bargaining power, and cannot come with huge demands. If they ask too much, they will get nothing. I can easily see a situation where Netanyahu offers Amir Peretz some obscure post like the Welfare Ministry, and maybe something else peripheral like Agriculture for one of his cronies, in order to sit in the government. Peretz has two choices: a nice ministerial salary to see him comfortably into his retirement, or the glorious distinction of being the leader of the smallest faction in the Opposition. Whichever path he chooses, Labour will kick him out as leader before the next election (as appears to be their custom), so he really has nothing to lose. He'll come up with some rationalization about why he's joining a right-wing/Haredi government, and jump on the gravy train, as befits a good socialist. And that is Netanyahu's path to 61.

Now, you might think we're done here. But this is just where the fun begins. It's time to play Rational Pirates! BUWAHAHAHAHAAA!

Arrr! Shiver me timbers!

Of course, I'm referring to the famous Pirate Game, and if you don't know what that is, you should visit the link. I'm casting Netanyahu and Gantz as the Rational Pirates in our story.

Netanyahu knows he has a path to 61, as described above. But it has its problems. He needs five parties, including his own Likud, in his coalition, they all have their agendas pulling in different directions, and any one of the other four could bring down the government at the drop of a hat. Make that five other parties, since Yamina is just a technical bloc, and once they're in the Knesset they can function independently as the New Right and Bayit Yehudi. Running a government that is constantly beholden to the demands of five other coalition partners will not be easy. Wouldn't it be nice if he could just have one big partner--Blue & White--and not have to bother with those pesky little nudnik parties? If necessary, he could just pull in one other small party, maybe New Right, maybe Bayit Yehudi, to make his 61.

But Gantz wants a rotating Prime Minister position! "Well," Netanyahu can tell him, "I don't need you to form a government. I already have my path to 61, with Labour. But I'd prefer to work with you. We're not that far apart on most issues of substance, and together we can make a coalition that is not beholden to the whims of smaller parties, for the greater good of Israel! Rotating premiership is off the table, but you can have the Defense Ministry and even the Foreign Ministry. Of course, if you'd prefer to be the Leader of the Opposition instead for the next four or five years, that's fine...but chaval al hazman..."

Now Gantz has a quandary. He's made a lot of pronouncements about refusing to join a coalition with Netanyahu. But this really is a great opportunity to form the government that Middle Israel desperately wants. Free from the political demands of the Left and Right fringes; unencumbered by the budgetary needs of the Haredim. How will history remember him? As yet another Opposition leader who never made any impact? Or as the hero who put aside his personal differences with his political opponents, for the greater good?

Gantz nods sagely, then extends his hand to Netanyahu. "You've got a deal," he says. And this is how a coalition is formed between Blue & White, and maybe one other small party.

Alternative scenario: Zehut and Otzma Yehudit pass the threshold

All the above assumes that the smaller ring-wing parties, Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, fail to pass the 3.25% voting threshold. But what if they do? They immediately arrive on the scene with 4 seats each. Those 8 seats will come more or less proportionately off the rest of the parties. Let's say everyone else on that poll loses 1 seat, other than the Arab List (just for argument's sake). Now Netanyahu technically has a path to 61 with just right-wing parties: 29 Likud, 11 Yemina, 6 Shas, 7 UTJ, 4 Zehut, 4 Otzma. But it doesn't really change much from our previous scenario, where Labour filled in the gap; in fact, the optics of forming a coalition with the Kahanists are so bad that Netanyahu would arguably prefer to have Labour in the coalition rather than Otzma. Plus, he hates Moshe Feiglin of Zehut. So it's back to the Rational Pirates game, with pretty much the same inputs as before.

So it seems all roads lead to the same outcome: a Likud/Blue & White coalition, with Netanyahu as Prime Minister.

Of course, anything could happen in the next month, and the seat distribution could be wildly different from current polling. We'll take a look at that after 17 September. See you then!

Credit: Jpost

A scammer stole my credit card number online. Learn from my mistakes.

D'oh.

I am a software professional. I consider myself pretty savvy about the risks of operating online. Sometimes I even indulge in a little playful scam-baiting, though nowhere near the level of hilarity achieved by 419 Eater. So it is with no small degree of embarrassment, and only because it is in the public interest to do so, that I confess that I was taken in by an online scam.

As I tell you this story, I predict you that you will groan and say to yourself some version of, "Oh no, I can't believe he actually fell for that! How dumb can you get?" But that's only because you are already primed for what is going to happen. In reality, there is no warning that something is about to happen. No voice-over tells you that you are looking at a scam. There is not even any ominous background music. It's all just perfectly normal, like eating your lunch while reading the news, until a powerfully bitter taste in your mouth alerts you to the fact that your sandwich bread is moldy.

In my case, I was casually scrolling through my Facebook feed, when I came to a sponsored ad for a really cool looking GPS watch. As it happens, my GPS watch is one of the first models Garmin ever put on the market. It's done many years of faithful service, but the GPS is starting to get less reliable, and the "mode" button has stopped working, so basically all I can do is start and stop the timer. So I was already thinking of replacing it when I saw this ad...and wow, what a good offer it was! From a regular list price of $54, it was marked down to about $10. Too good to be true, right? Funnily enough, that thought did occur to me at the time. So I googled the watch model, and found a lot of very positive online reviews. Ok, so what about the merchant? I did a search for the website name, along with the word "scam"...and nothing relevant came up. So I figured, maybe this merchant is doing a special to attract attention and get more customers. The site looked pretty reasonable, if a little tacky in design, and they had a genuine SSL certificate, so when it came time to hand over my credit card details, I was confident that nobody could steal my credit card details.

My first warning that something was amiss came shortly after the purchase. I received two emails confirming my purchase. One said I had been charged $10, but the other said $54. That got me upset, but before I jumped to any conclusions, I thought, let's see what actually appears on my card. Maybe their internal accounting is some stupid system where they charge me $10, but credit me as if I paid $54. So I set a reminder for the next day to check what had appeared on my card...but nothing came up yet. Nor the next day. And then life happened, and the whole thing fell off my radar. This all happened over a month ago.

So yesterday, I was looking back on my old emails, and I noticed the one they had sent me with the tracking number of my package. And I thought, hey, I haven't collected this thing yet, surely it must have arrived by now! And, hey, I should check how much they actually charged me. So first I entered the tracking number, and found that the parcel arrived at the local post office over a week before, and I never received a notification (though that complaint is for a separate discussion).

Then I went into my banking website, and looked back for the expected payment of $10...and found, to my disappointment, but not total surprise, that they had charged me the full $54. But wait...what is that transaction below the payment for the watch? 3,000 shekels for Facebook Ads? What the heck? And then...below that...another...the next day...and another...and another...and another. On five consecutive days, my credit card had been charged with 3,000 ILS, for a grand total of fifteen thousand.

At this point, my heart pumping, I realized what had happened. It's not that someone intercepted my credit card number on the merchant site. It's that the merchant himself simply saved my credit card number, swiped it to purchase me a watch (at full price, of course) from a genuine vendor, then used my card to purchase a fortune more of Facebook ads, in order to hook his next round of victims. I must suppose that not all his victims are paying for Facebook ads; presumably some are funding his big screen TVs, Big Macs, and teddy bears, or whatever else takes his fancy.

Fortunately for me, the credit card companies appear to be pretty used to this kind of event. I called them up and told them what had happened, and they said no problem, they'll reverse the charges. I'm guessing they're insured, because I can't see Facebook returning that money to anyone.

Naturally, the website where I purchased the watch is now 404. (That's how technical people, who are embarrassed at having been shown to be complete suckers and feel the need to attempt to reassert their street cred, say "Not Found".)

This just left open the question of what I should do with the watch. I mean, I was happy to spring $10 for a new GPS watch, but I wasn't so sure about $54. So I figured I'd pick up the watch from the post office, and see if it was worth $54 to me, otherwise I'd contact the merchant and ask for a return and refund. And that's what I did. Here it is:

Now, I know what you're thinking. That's one mighty compact little GPS watch, there. Fits on one finger. Just like a ring. A ring made out of whatever metal alloy happened to be cheapest on the Chinese commodities exchange on the day, with a gently understated geometrical design engraved on the outside. Frankly, I think the bag it came in might have been worth more than the contents. So I guess tomorrow I'll be calling the credit card company again, to request a chargeback for the $54, too.

And now, the important part, without which it would not be worth humiliating myself telling this story: Lessons learned.

1. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is. 20% off is a special. 80% off is a scam. Run a mile.
2. SSL is essential, but not sufficient. That green padlock in the address bar of your browser next to the "https" address just means that your communication with the website is encrypted, and no third party can steal your information. It doesn't help you if the website itself is owned by criminals. Anyone can purchase a domain name and an SSL certificate. You need to know that you can trust the website owner. Otherwise it's like hiring a security guard to supervise as you hand the keys of your house over to a stranger wearing a ski mask.
3. How do you know whom to trust? Well, for a start, there are organizations like the Better Business Bureau. If you want to buy from a website you don't recognize, and can't find any sources to establish the bona fides of the business, don't give them your card number. If they have PayPal, use that. If the only option they're offering you is credit card, walk away.
4. Unrelated, but while we're on the subject, don't give your card number to anyone who calls you, even if they represent a real business or charity. Unless you initiated the call, were expecting their call, or you recognize the person calling you, they could be a scammer, pretending to be soliciting donations on behalf of a legitimate charity. This has happened in Beit Shemesh before, with scammers claiming to represent Lemaan Achai calling hundreds of people here and tricking them out of untold amounts of money.

Bottom line, your credit card number is extremely valuable. Don't give it to anyone, unless you know they are trustworthy.

Election fun!

Seven talking points about the election on April 9

A lot of people are talking about how disillusioned they are about next week's general election in Israel, how no party really deserves their vote, and how bad and dangerous certain candidates or parties are. I have a different take on things that is a lot more upbeat. Here are seven talking points for your consideration.

1. The polls are (mostly) rubbish

One of the best things that has come out of this election is the legal ruling obtained by the Green Leaf Party early in the campaign, requiring (among other things) that polling companies release their raw data, not just their final calculations. While most of the media doesn't report on the raw data anyway, it's available, and extremely interesting. 

For example, I present you with Exhibit A, the raw data from a Channel 13 poll taken on 28 March:

The leftmost column is the percentage of respondents who chose the selected option; the middle column is the number of seats they are allocated, based on their raw data. Loosely. Very loosely.

The first thing I will draw your attention to is the contrast between the results of UTJ and the New Right. In the raw data, UTJ scored 3.8%, while NR got 3.7%: a virtual dead heat. Yet in the allocation of seats, UTJ gets 7, while NR gets only 5! Now, this is not necessarily gross misrepresentation; after all, UTJ supporters are particularly difficult to poll, since very many of them do not use the Internet, and do not have SMS-capable phones, so it is probably correct to bump their numbers up somewhat. But how much? That's a question for the judgement of the pollsters.

Where it gets a little more dodgy is how Likud (21.6%) and Blue & White (25.5%) both ended up with exactly 30 seats. Or how Zehut (7.5%) and Labour (7.8%) were allocated 7 and 10 seats respectively. I suspect the pollsters are taking the 9.1% of "Undecideds" and allocating them to other parties according to their best judgement. Or according to their own political preferences. Or according to groupthink. Whatever. Whether the data manipulation is innocent or nefarious, it's pretty clear that polling is not an exact science. Expect results that are nowhere near the conventional wisdom.

2. The media hype about the Left/Right blocs is utter rubbish

Cartoon: Philip Whisenhunt, The Commonwealth Times

Every poll gets trumpeted in the media as a scorecard of how many seats are in the "Right" bloc, and how many are in the "Center-Left" bloc. So, for instance, the above poll would be announced as "Right bloc leads 64-56". If they're feeling really adventurous, they might call Zehut the "balance of power", since its leader, Moshe Feiglin, has said he has no preference between Binyamin Netanyahu or Benny Gantz for Prime Minister, claiming that the score is "Right 57-56 Center-Left", with Zehut being the kingmakers. Sounds really close and competitive, right?

Well, it's all utter rubbish, because they are ignoring the fact that the Arab parties are less concerned about serving their constituency than about grandstanding against anything and everything the government does, and will never join any coalition, whether "Right" or "Center-Left". This is a great pity; I've said often that it would be really cool if a right-wing government could co-opt at least one Arab party into the coalition with some harmless portfolio like Minister of Welfare. But it isn't happening any time soon, at least not with the current crop of Arab politicians, so those 11 seats in the poll above are spoilers, and cannot be counted in any "bloc", other than their own. So why does the media keep harping on with this ridiculous scorecard? Because it keeps things exciting; it sounds so much more like a cliffhanger than if they had to tell the truth, which is "Right 64-45 Center-Left".

3. There are no (really) bad scenarios

Photo credit: JPost

I don't believe in trash-talking, not even directed against politicians, and I'm not going to start now. Fortunately, I don't feel much temptation to do so, either. I have friends who support almost every one of the major parties, and I have not attempted to persuade them otherwise, because all the party lists contain some excellent people, who really love Israel, and sincerely want to do their best for the country. They also have a lot of candidates I don't like, but it's unrealistic to expect to like every single candidate on your party list. I may disagree with their approach, but who's to say I know better than them? At the very least, I don't see anyone on the map who both (a) has an agenda that I believe will be seriously detrimental to Israel, and (b) will likely have the power to implement that agenda. The most serious concern I have is that the Blue-and-White party might install a trade union boss as finance minister, but I don't see that as a realistic scenario. As mentioned above, it seems to me that Netanyahu is a shoo-in to form the next government, but if it happens to be Gantz, I'm not too concerned; he would almost certainly have to rely on Feiglin to make his coalition, and Feiglin's price will include the Finance Ministry. Having Feiglin in the government also assuages any concerns I might have that a Gantz-led government would do anything too reckless on the diplomatic front. So, barring some kind of black swan event, I'm pretty relaxed about whatever outcome this election yields.

4. Zehut is a game-changer

That brings me to Feiglin and Zehut. Without getting into arguments for or against any aspect of their platform, I think it's fair to say that Zehut's entry into Israeli politics is a massive game-changer. Firstly, the fact that they even have a manifesto is, amazingly enough, unprecedented. Every other political party only has a list of personalities; you vote for the people and hope they do in office what they intimated they might do while they were campaigning. Zehut has a 344-page platform, spelling out exactly what policies they have committed themselves to. We'll see how good they are about following through on their commitments once they're in office, but one way or another, I hope more parties do the same in future, rather than asking us to close our eyes and open our mouths.

Just one of hundreds of Zehut memes

Secondly, Zehut has whipped up both support and opposition to levels of near-hysteria. You can't post a kitten video on Facebook, without some Zehutnik friend of yours commenting about how life will be better for cats once Zehut runs the country, see page 271 of the platform #מצביע_זהות. To which your Meretz friend responds, calling the Zehut friend a messianic fanatic who wants to build the Third Temple. Then a United Right friend accuses him of being a pothead who wants to destroy Judaism in Israel, followed by a Likudnik berating Feiglin for his anticipated betrayal of the Right, while a Blue & White supporter says Zehut is a dangerous cabal of extreme Rightists who will bring the apocalypse down on our heads. Seriously. Somehow, Zehut has stirred up the pot so much, that literally every other political party feels threatened by them, and the accusations against them are diametrically opposite, depending from direction they originate. That itself speaks volumes. Plus, it's hugely entertaining.

Thirdly, no party before has gone so hard for the jugular in terms of their libertarian agenda to root out the ugly vestiges of socialism in Israel. They are aiming for the Finance Ministry, and there is good reason to believe they will get it. And from there, I am very optimistic that they will liberalize the economy, removing the protectionism, tariffs, and other obstacles to the individual's economic success. Bring it on.

To the people who are worried about Zehut's proposed solution to the Palestinian issue, I get that concern. But, much like Blue & White's union boss is unlikely to become finance minister, I don't see Zehut dictating foreign or security policy any time soon, and they haven't prioritized those issues on their agenda. They're going for finance and education, and in both of those fields, I think they will be an excellent force for good.

5. There is life after Netanyahu

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

The election has been complicated by the legal cloud hanging over Netanyahu's head, though that doesn't seem to have affected his likelihood of reelection much. Nonetheless, the indictment against him carries some serious weight. Noah Roth posted an excellent and balanced analysis of the case here, and its really worth reading. 

The bottom line is that even after winning the election, Netanyahu could well be forced out of office. And if he is, the next prime minister will likely be determined by primary elections within the Likud. Are you a Likud member? If so, you may be treated to the privilege of directly electing the next leader of Israel. And despite the fact that many first time voters don't even remember a time when Israel had a prime minister not called Binyamin Netanyahu, everything will be OK. There are a lot of very good and highly qualified candidates in the Likud, and even some who speak English as well as Bibi. Netanyahu has been a very good prime minister, in my opinion, but even without his legal issues, he should have been term-limited. It's not good to have the same person in power for too long, and some fresh leadership might be nice.

6. Not much else will change

As mentioned above, Zehut's likely takeover of the Finance Ministry has potential to make some big impact on the economy. Plus, they've made cannabis legalization a sine qua non condition of entry into any coalition, and nobody is really that strongly against it, so I think it's safe to say we'll soon see pot on sale in pharmacies within the next year.

Other than that, I don't see many other policy initiatives making much headway. The Charedi parties will likely be indispensable to any coalition, so I cannot foresee any major changes to the status quo as far as social or religious legislation is concerned. The Likud will remain in control of security and foreign policy, so expect more of the same there. Ayelet Shaked is banging war drums against the High Court, but I don't foresee her achieving much more of a judicial revolution in her next term of office than she did in the first one. 

The really big unknown factor, of course, will be the unveiling of Trump's Middle East Peace Plan. I have no idea what's in it. Those who do know, aren't saying, and those who say, don't know. But that's one thing that has the potential to set the cat among the pigeons.

7. Relax, everything will be fine!

Credit: Chabad.org

This election is characterized by the fact that there aren't really any probable nightmare scenarios, which hasn't always been the case in past elections. Most of the candidates are actually pretty decent, and whatever happens, things will be fine.

It's not worth getting into heated debates on social media. Our relationships with our friends and neighbors will continue past April 9; it's really not worth burning them over one or two votes here or there.

Shalom al Yisrael!