Silent Thunder

Aliza Bloch (credit: Arutz 7)

I posted a couple weeks ago my prediction that Moshe Abutbul would win by a landslide. And  I was wrong, big time. At this writing, it's a cliffhanger, with Aliza Bloch looking likely to win once absentee ballots are counted.

So, analysis time. Where did I go wrong? My prediction was based on the persuasion principle, that calls to identity are more effective than reasoning. Bloch was campaigning based on her claims that the current management was incompetent and she would do a better job, while Abutbul simply played the "Daas Torah" card, i.e. "I am Haredi and if you are Haredi you must vote for me because the Gedolim say so." I saw that argument as basically irrefutable, and once it was set in stone that it was now a mitzva to vote for Abutbul, he could not lose; no True Believer could vote for Bloch with a clear conscience.

And that was my mistake. I thought there were only two options: Abutbul or Bloch. But there was a third option: simply to stay at home.

(credit: Times of Israel)

My first clue that this was happening came while I was counting votes at a station in the Haredi suburb of Heftziba. The vote count was 367 for Abutbul and 8 for Bloch. That doesn't look very impressive, until you look at the turnout: there were about 780 registered voters in that precinct. For an area that usually turns out 70-80% or more, when you get under 50% of your voters showing up, on a public holiday, and 65% of the rest of the city came to have their say, that's not apathy; that's a protest.

On the one hand, I can still claim a modicum of rightness in my original assessment; the vast majority of Haredim in Beit Shemesh would not actively disobey the instructions they were told emanated from their religious leaders by voting for the other candidate. But the simmering discontent, while not actually bubbling over, translated into a massive, passive no-show, which I contend was the single biggest factor in Bloch's victory. Look at the numbers, extrapolated from my polling station: had the 50% turnout been 75% instead, that's an increase of 50% of Abutbul's votes. So say what you want about maybe a couple thousand Haredim who voted for Bloch, or about a genuinely great get-out-the-vote effort from Bloch's team in the rest of Beit Shemesh; if those 25% of Haredi voters who were supposed to have been in Abutbul's pocket had shown up, that would have been at least an extra 10,000 votes for Abutbul, and a landslide.

(credit: PhysicsWorld.com)

Let that sink in. Ten thousand protest no-shows. That is what I call silent thunder. And the message, as I read it, is twofold. First, it is a stinging slap in the face to the askanim who regard the Haredi population as their obedient foot soldiers who will do their bidding unquestioningly. It says, "We are not yet ready for outright rebellion. But if you try to shove your decisions down our throats, and you don't provide us with the services we deserve, then you are asking too much."

Second, it is an implicit probation for Aliza Bloch. It says, "Don't expect us to be excited about you becoming mayor. We let you win, and you have a chance to prove yourself over the next five years. Do good, and we will let you win again; maybe we'll even support you. But beware: if you put a foot out of line, we will flick you like a fly out of the mayor's office."

Personally, I don't know if I've ever been happier to be wrong. I wish Mayor Bloch wisdom, understanding, blessing and every success in her new job, and hope she will over-perform so much  that in five years' time, even the Daas Torah thumpers will be behind her.

Congratulations, and good luck!

(credit: Times of Israel)

Needed: a clear Haredi majority in Beit Shemesh

Just stam a picture of some random Haredim
because I like pictures in my blog posts.
Credit: Wiki Commons

That's a deliberately provocative headline, and I mean it--but not for the usual reasons.

Let's take a couple of steps back. We're currently less than two weeks before local council election day, which in Beit Shemesh pits incumbent mayor Moshe Abutbul against challengers Aliza Bloch and Malachi someone-or-other. The fundamentals of the debate are as follows: the Bloch camp claims that Abutbul has done a bad job as mayor, and she will do better; the Abutbul camp claims that he is Haredi and the Gedolim say you must therefore vote for him. And the third guy says something, I think.

I'm not going to bother with analyzing the Bloch camp's arguments, because there are many points to be made in both directions, and it is a fair matter for debate whether Bloch would be a better mayor than Abutbul. Abutbul's claims, however, are incontrovertible: he is verifiably Haredi, and I have no reason to believe he's lying about the endorsements he claims to have received from all the senior Rabbonim that the Haredi community cares about. To simplify it further: Bloch is appealing to voters' reason, while Abutbul is appealing to their identity. And identity always trumps reason, in terms of persuasion.

Incumbent mayor Moshe Abutbul
Credit: Times of Israel

My prediction, therefore, is for an Abutbul landslide, with a victory margin of around 10%. The Haredi community is the most disciplined voting bloc in the country (and possibly in the world), and with few exceptions (notably including the Anglo-Haredi sector), once given their marching orders, they will turn out in force and vote as they have been instructed.

This situation is profoundly saddening to me, not because of the likely outcome, but because the election will be decided on tribalism rather than issues. That's not a good thing for a democratic society. But it will continue this way, election after election, as long as the non-Haredi sector keeps putting up candidates who are inherently doomed to fail.

But it's not all bad news. At some point, perhaps even in five years' time, the non-Haredi sector will give up, thus firmly establishing Beit Shemesh as a Haredi-controlled city. At that point, only Haredi candidates will be viable. Consequently, there will be nothing to compete about in terms of tribal identity, which is the most important area to the dominant voting bloc. What's left? They'll actually have to compete on real issues. Wow.

Good news for the Jews!
Credit: Times of Israel

It gets better. Up till now, in a straight Haredi vs non-Haredi fight, the Haredi bloc has actively alienated and even demonized the non-Haredi sector, and vice versa. That's not good for anybody. But once the battle is between only Haredi candidates, the monolithic Haredi vote breaks down, and suddenly the non-Haredi voters become the kingmakers. The candidates will have to court the non-Haredi vote. The mayor will have to deliver for the non-Haredi community. Counter-intuitively, once the city is Haredi-dominated, the non-Haredi residents will wield disproportionate power.

My purpose in writing this is not to convince anyone to vote differently. You should vote for whoever you think is the best candidate. But when Abutbul wins handily, don't lose heart. The bigger his victory margin, the better for all of us, because only when we learn to accept and live with the new reality, that Beit Shemesh is a Haredi-majority city, do we have a chance of moving past tribalism and into meritocracy.